Model accuracy · Ledger

UFC prediction accuracy

Every UFC prediction we publish is captured as an immutable snapshot before the event starts. Official results are recorded separately afterward. This page compares the two — nothing here is odds, betting ROI, profitability or any guarantee of future performance. Small samples never prove skill.

Tracking active · No scored fights yet

Accuracy metrics will appear here after the first completed event.

The snapshot pipeline is active. In the 24 hours before each UFC event we freeze every published win-probability into an immutable record. Once official results are recorded, this ledger will show pick accuracy, Brier score and calibration — with no fabricated numbers or placeholder fights.

UFC schedule →About the project →

Methodology

  • Snapshot rule. An "official closing" snapshot is captured for a matchup only in the 24-hour window before its scheduled start, and only when the underlying analysis has a real timestamp that precedes the event. Snapshots are append-only and cannot be updated or deleted, even by service role.
  • Scored. A fight is scored only when it has an official closing snapshot AND the current official result is completed with a valid winner. Scheduled, cancelled, no-contest, and unresolved overturned fights are excluded and never counted in the denominator.
  • Ties. 50/50 snapshots are excluded from pick accuracy and reported as a separate ties count. They still contribute to Brier score.
  • Brier score. Mean squared error between the pre-event win probability of fighter A and the observed outcome (1 for A win, 0 for B win). Lower is better; 0.25 is the "always 50/50" baseline.

Exclusions

Official closings
22
Scheduled
22
Cancelled
0
No contest
0
Overturned (unresolved)
0
Missing result
0
Invalid winner
0
Ties (50/50)
0

Not affiliated with UFC, Zuffa LLC, or any sports league. Browse the UFC schedule or read about the project.

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