Weekly Guide · Updated for every card

UFC 331: Van vs Pantoja 2 Predictions & Model Analysis

Saturday, September 19, 2026 · Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles

Every week we publish a full breakdown of the next UFC card using our model's win probabilities. Below, each matchup is ranked by the model's confidence — the largest edges first — so you can see where the model disagrees most with a coin flip and which matchups show the largest statistical differentials.

How to read this guide

  • Win % — the model's estimated probability each fighter wins. Anything past 60% is a meaningful lean; past 70% is a strong lean.
  • Edge — how far the favorite sits from a 50/50 coin flip. Bigger edges are the model's highest-confidence matchups.
  • Angle — the tactical reason the model favors one side. Full breakdowns, key advantages, and concerns live on each fight page.

Fight-by-fight predictions

  1. #1 · Heavyweight

    Edge 22%

    Gable Steveson vs Sean Sharaf

    Gable Steveson 72% · Sean Sharaf 28%

    Model lean: Gable Steveson (72%). Steveson's wrestling ceiling and explosive top pressure are the clearest matchup advantages; Sharaf needs to make the entries costly immediately.

    Full breakdown →

  2. #2 · Lightweight

    Edge 13%

    Arman Tsarukyan vs Mauricio Ruffy

    Arman Tsarukyan 63% · Mauricio Ruffy 37%

    Model lean: Arman Tsarukyan (63%). Tsarukyan's chain wrestling and positional control are the most repeatable tools; Ruffy's power is the clearest momentum-changing threat.

    Full breakdown →

  3. #3 · Middleweight

    Edge 12%

    Ozzy Diaz vs Ryan Gandra

    Ozzy Diaz 38% · Ryan Gandra 62%

    Model lean: Ryan Gandra (62%). Gandra's pressure, efficiency and defensive numbers form the more repeatable route; Diaz remains live through power exchanges.

    Full breakdown →

  4. #4 · Light Heavyweight

    Edge 11%

    Alonzo Menifield vs Iwo Baraniewski

    Alonzo Menifield 39% · Iwo Baraniewski 61%

    Model lean: Iwo Baraniewski (61%). Baraniewski's early pressure and finishing form earn the lean, though Menifield's experience and counter power make the small UFC sample volatile.

    Full breakdown →

  5. #5 · Lightweight

    Edge 8%

    Brian Ortega vs Renato Moicano

    Brian Ortega 42% · Renato Moicano 58%

    Model lean: Renato Moicano (58%). Moicano's cleaner volume and positional decision-making offer the steadier route; Ortega remains dangerous in every scramble.

    Close to a coin flip — the model sees little separation, with a slight lean against Brian Ortega.

    Full breakdown →

  6. #6 · Heavyweight

    Edge 6%

    Robelis Despaigne vs Tai Tuivasa

    Robelis Despaigne 56% · Tai Tuivasa 44%

    Model lean: Robelis Despaigne (56%). Despaigne's length and straight-line power give him the early striking edge; Tuivasa's experience becomes more valuable if he survives the first wave.

    Close to a coin flip — the model sees little separation, with a slight lean against Tai Tuivasa.

    Full breakdown →

  7. #7 · Flyweight · Title

    Edge 4%

    Alexandre Pantoja vs Joshua Van

    Alexandre Pantoja 46% · Joshua Van 54%

    Model lean: Joshua Van (54%). Van's pace and combination volume create the cleaner minute-winning route; Pantoja's scrambling and submission threat keep the rematch tight.

    Close to a coin flip — the model sees little separation, with a slight lean against Alexandre Pantoja.

    Full breakdown →

  8. #8 · Featherweight

    Edge 4%

    Dooho Choi vs Patricio Pitbull

    Dooho Choi 54% · Patricio Pitbull 46%

    Model lean: Dooho Choi (54%). Choi's sustained output gives him a narrow edge, while Pitbull's timing, counters and clinch craft provide credible upset routes.

    Close to a coin flip — the model sees little separation, with a slight lean against Patricio Pitbull.

    Full breakdown →

  9. #9 · Women's Flyweight

    Edge 4%

    Casey O'Neill vs Eduarda Moura

    Casey O'Neill 54% · Eduarda Moura 46%

    Model lean: Casey O'Neill (54%). O'Neill's pace and UFC experience provide a narrow edge; Moura's size and grappling efficiency offer a strong control-based counter-route.

    Close to a coin flip — the model sees little separation, with a slight lean against Eduarda Moura.

    Full breakdown →

  10. #10 · Bantamweight

    Edge 3%

    Charles Jourdain vs Marlon Vera

    Charles Jourdain 53% · Marlon Vera 47%

    Model lean: Charles Jourdain (53%). Jourdain's activity and submission momentum create a narrow edge; Vera's durability and late-round damage keep the fight competitive.

    Close to a coin flip — the model sees little separation, with a slight lean against Marlon Vera.

    Full breakdown →

  11. #11 · Featherweight

    Edge 3%

    Giga Chikadze vs Joanderson Brito

    Giga Chikadze 47% · Joanderson Brito 53%

    Model lean: Joanderson Brito (53%). Brito's pressure and grappling threat create a slight edge; Chikadze remains the cleaner long-range striker.

    Close to a coin flip — the model sees little separation, with a slight lean against Giga Chikadze.

    Full breakdown →

  12. #12 · Featherweight

    Edge 2%

    JooSang Yoo vs Michael Aswell Jr.

    JooSang Yoo 52% · Michael Aswell Jr. 48%

    Model lean: JooSang Yoo (52%). Yoo's cleaner defensive profile earns a slight lean, while Aswell's higher output can swing rounds if he controls the pace.

    Close to a coin flip — the model sees little separation, with a slight lean against Michael Aswell Jr..

    Full breakdown →

  13. #13 · Middleweight

    Edge 2%

    Brunno Ferreira vs Edmen Shahbazyan

    Brunno Ferreira 48% · Edmen Shahbazyan 52%

    Model lean: Edmen Shahbazyan (52%). Shahbazyan's range tools create a slight edge, but Ferreira's power and submission activity make every transition consequential.

    Close to a coin flip — the model sees little separation, with a slight lean against Brunno Ferreira.

    Full breakdown →

Predictions are model-generated and update weekly as the next UFC card is finalized. Nothing here is betting advice — always fight-check the tape yourself.