Weekly Guide · Updated for every card
UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs Salkilld Predictions & Model Analysis
Saturday, August 8, 2026 · Meta APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada, United States
Every week we publish a full breakdown of the next UFC card using our model's win probabilities. Below, each matchup is ranked by the model's confidence — the largest edges first — so you can see where the model disagrees most with a coin flip and spot potentially mispriced fights.
How to read this guide
- Win % — the model's estimated probability each fighter wins. Anything past 60% is a meaningful lean; past 70% is a strong lean.
- Edge — how far the favorite sits from a 50/50 coin flip. Bigger edges are the model's highest-conviction picks.
- Angle — the tactical reason the model favors one side. Full breakdowns, key advantages, and concerns live on each fight page.
Fight-by-fight predictions
#1 · Bantamweight
Edge 15%
Miles Johns vs Jessie Rosas
Miles Johns 65% · Jessie Rosas 35%
Model pick: Miles Johns (65%). Johns's proven UFC defense meets the young debuting grappler Jessie Rosas.
Full breakdown →#2 · Heavyweight
Edge 13%
Louie Sutherland vs Jose Montanha da Silva
Louie Sutherland 63% · Jose Montanha da Silva 37%
Model pick: Louie Sutherland (63%). Sutherland's verified finishing experience meets an opponent with no completed UFC statistical history.
Full breakdown →#3 · Welterweight
Edge 9%
Ty Miller vs Billy Ray Goff
Ty Miller 59% · Billy Ray Goff 41%
Model pick: Ty Miller (59%). Miller's size and balance meet Goff's relentless knockout pressure.
Close to a coin flip — live-underdog territory on Billy Ray Goff.
Full breakdown →#4 · Featherweight
Edge 8%
Darren Elkins vs Yadier del Valle
Darren Elkins 42% · Yadier del Valle 58%
Model pick: Yadier del Valle (58%). Elkins's legendary durability meets del Valle's younger, cleaner and more explosive game.
Close to a coin flip — live-underdog territory on Darren Elkins.
Full breakdown →#5 · Lightweight
Edge 7%
Mateusz Gamrot vs Quillan Salkilld
Mateusz Gamrot 57% · Quillan Salkilld 43%
Model pick: Mateusz Gamrot (57%). Elite wrestling experience meets a fast-rising, high-output all-rounder.
Close to a coin flip — live-underdog territory on Quillan Salkilld.
Full breakdown →#6 · Women's Flyweight
Edge 7%
Juliana Miller vs Ravena Oliveira
Juliana Miller 57% · Ravena Oliveira 43%
Model pick: Juliana Miller (57%). Miller's grappling pressure targets Oliveira's vulnerable takedown defense.
Close to a coin flip — live-underdog territory on Ravena Oliveira.
Full breakdown →#7 · Light Heavyweight
Edge 7%
Diyar Nurgozhay vs Bruno Lopes
Diyar Nurgozhay 57% · Bruno Lopes 43%
Model pick: Diyar Nurgozhay (57%). Nurgozhay's pace and distance striking face Lopes's power and submission threat.
Close to a coin flip — live-underdog territory on Bruno Lopes.
Full breakdown →#8 · Women's Strawweight
Edge 6%
Amanda Lemos vs Alexia Thainara
Amanda Lemos 44% · Alexia Thainara 56%
Model pick: Alexia Thainara (56%). Lemos's power faces Thainara's youth, length and submission-heavy pressure.
Close to a coin flip — live-underdog territory on Amanda Lemos.
Full breakdown →#9 · Lightweight
Edge 6%
Manoel Sousa vs Richie Miranda
Manoel Sousa 56% · Richie Miranda 44%
Model pick: Manoel Sousa (56%). Sousa's explosive UFC-tested offense meets Miranda's deep, durable regional résumé.
Close to a coin flip — live-underdog territory on Richie Miranda.
Full breakdown →#10 · Lightweight
Edge 5%
Diego Ferreira vs Billy Quarantillo
Diego Ferreira 55% · Billy Quarantillo 45%
Model pick: Diego Ferreira (55%). Ferreira's technical grappling meets Quarantillo's extreme volume and attrition.
Close to a coin flip — live-underdog territory on Billy Quarantillo.
Full breakdown →#11 · Heavyweight
Edge 4%
Steven Asplund vs Guilherme Pat
Steven Asplund 54% · Guilherme Pat 46%
Model pick: Steven Asplund (54%). Two large heavyweight finishers meet in a volatile, mostly standing matchup.
Close to a coin flip — live-underdog territory on Guilherme Pat.
Full breakdown →