← UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. GuskovMagomed AnkalaevBogdan Guskov

Magomed Ankalaev vs Bogdan Guskov — Light Heavyweight — estaba programada para el sábado, 25 de julio de 2026 en UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov en Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi. Resultado oficial aún no registrado. Picks Terminal cubre el enfrentamiento con una estimación de probabilidad de victoria, un desglose del enfrentamiento e inteligencia extraída de fuentes públicas.

Evento estelar · Light HeavyweightID · 2BD27948-3EA5-4A00-98DE-72549BDD4277

Rango 1 · Light Heavyweight

Magomed Ankalaev

21-2-1 (1 NC) · Combat Sambo

Rango 9 · Light Heavyweight

Bogdan Guskov

"Hitman"

18-3-1 · Boxing

Modelo de probabilidad de victoria · v4.2

Ankalaev

79%

Ventaja58%

Guskov

21%

Comparación de habilidades

75
78
Golpeo
65
50
Lucha
85
70
Cardio
88
65
Defensa de derribos
82
75
Resistencia de mentón

Atributos físicos

AnkalaevMétricaGuskov
6'3"Estatura6'3"
75"Alcance76"
34Edad33
ZurdaPosturaOrtodoxa
62%Tasa de finalización100%

Récord de carrera

AnkalaevMétricaGuskov
12Victorias por KO/TKO4
1Victorias por sumisión1
6Finalizaciones en 1.º asalto13
3.65Golpes significativos / min4.57
2.59Golpes significativos recibidos / min4.09
52%Precisión de golpeo55%
56%Defensa de golpeo44%
0.56Promedio de knockdowns / 15 min0
0.79Derribos / 15 min0
22%Precisión de derribo0%
87%Defensa de derribo57%
0Sumisiones / 15 min0.70
11:49Tiempo promedio de pelea15:00

Distribución de golpes

Ankalaev

Golpes significativos por objetivo

Objetivo principal Cabeza

Cabeza

56%

Cuerpo

27%

Pierna

17%
Golpes significativos por objetivo — Ankalaev

Golpes significativos por posición

De pie — 71%De pie71%
Clinch — 11%Clinch11%
Suelo — 18%Suelo18%

Posición principal De pie

Guskov

Golpes significativos por objetivo

Objetivo principal Cabeza

Cabeza

43%

Cuerpo

25%

Pierna

14%
Golpes significativos por objetivo — Guskov

Golpes significativos por posición

De pie — 84%De pie84%
Clinch — 16%Clinch16%
Suelo — 0%Suelo0%

Posición principal De pie

Inteligencia de la pelea

Consenso público

Kalshi

Ankalaev81%
Guskov19%

Las masas favorecen a Ankalaev · Ankalaev -488 / Guskov +426

Ver fuente →

Últimas noticias

Ankalaev

Fortalezas

  • Elite 87% takedown defense
  • Disciplined defensive striking (2.59 SApM)
  • High-level 5-round cardio

Debilidades

  • Historically slow starter in big fights
  • Vulnerable to heavy leg kick attacks
  • Occasional lapses in offensive urgency

Oportunidades

  • Exploit Guskov's low 44% striking defense
  • Target Guskov's gas tank in the later rounds
  • Use reach-neutralizing southpaw jab

Amenazas

  • Guskov's 15 career KO wins
  • Guskov's high early-round aggression
  • Underestimating Guskov as a late-notice sub
Guskov

Fortalezas

  • 100% finishing rate in pro wins
  • Elite 1st round knockout power
  • Master of Sport in Boxing

Debilidades

  • Low 44% striking defense
  • Inconsistent takedown defense (57%)
  • Questionable cardio in deep waters

Oportunidades

  • Land heavy overhands against a static target
  • Disrupt Ankalaev's rhythm with 4.57 SLpM volume
  • Capitalize on 1" reach advantage

Amenazas

  • Ankalaev's elite counter-wrestling
  • Ankalaev's 52% striking accuracy
  • Fatigue if the fight passes the 7-minute mark

Análisis detallado

Traduciendo…
Ventajas clave
  • 87% takedown defense provides near-total immunity to grappling pressure
  • Superior defensive striking (2.59 SApM vs Guskov's 4.09 SApM)
  • Proven 5-round cardio and experience against elite contenders
Posibles riesgos
  • Guskov's 100% UFC finish rate and early-round explosiveness
  • Ankalaev can occasionally be stationary, inviting leg kicks or power shots
  • Guskov's reach advantage (76") could disrupt Ankalaev's distance management
Análisis del modelo

Ankalaev's 87% takedown defense and elite counter-striking meet Guskov's 100% finish rate and heavy hands.

Pronóstico

Ankalaev is expected to utilize a measured, outside-striking approach to weather the inevitable Round 1 storm from Guskov. Given Guskov's tendency to absorb high volume (4.09 SApM) and Ankalaev's accuracy (52%), the former champion will likely pick Guskov apart with counters as the Uzbekistan native tires. While Guskov is a dangerous 'one-punch' threat, he has never faced a counter-striker of Ankalaev's caliber. Expect Ankalaev to find a TKO finish in the second or third round once Guskov's early explosive energy wanes. High confidence in an Ankalaev victory by late stoppage or clear unanimous decision.

Las valoraciones de habilidades, la probabilidad de victoria, las ventajas, los riesgos y el pronóstico son estimaciones generadas por el modelo a partir de perfiles públicos de peleadores — no son estadísticas oficiales de UFC ni garantías de resultado.

Desglose del enfrentamiento

This matchup pits the tactical precision of Magomed Ankalaev against the volatile power of Bogdan Guskov. Statistically, Ankalaev is the far more disciplined defender, absorbing only 2.59 significant strikes per minute compared to Guskov’s 4.09. While Guskov maintains a high striking volume (4.57 SLpM), his 44% striking defense suggests he is willing to take damage to land his own. Ankalaev's Combat Sambo background and 87% takedown defense effectively neutralize any potential grappling threats, forcing a stand-up battle where Ankalaev's southpaw counters typically thrive. Guskov's path to victory relies entirely on his 'Hitman' power, as he boasts an incredible 100% win-by-finish rate in his victories.

Picks Terminal Semanal

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Cada lunes: la cartelera completa, las peleas clave y la probabilidad estimada por el modelo. Cada viernes: novedades a medida que se acerca la noche de pelea. Gratis, sin relleno, cancelas con un clic.