← UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. GuskovSantiago PonzinibbioSam Patterson

Santiago Ponzinibbio vs Sam Patterson — Welterweight — estaba programada para el sábado, 25 de julio de 2026 en UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov en Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi. Resultado oficial aún no registrado. Picks Terminal cubre el enfrentamiento con una estimación de probabilidad de victoria, un desglose del enfrentamiento e inteligencia extraída de fuentes públicas.

slot.Prelim · WelterweightID · DB160973-5742-41AF-BC0D-4DE929EC1128

Rango 41 · Welterweight

Santiago Ponzinibbio

"Argentine Dagger"

31-9-0 · Striker

Rango 26 · Welterweight

Sam Patterson

"Future"

14-3-1 · Submission Specialist

Modelo de probabilidad de victoria · v4.2

Ponzinibbio

44%

Ventaja12%

Patterson

56%

Comparación de habilidades

75
62
Golpeo
55
65
Lucha
68
72
Cardio
60
33
Defensa de derribos
65
60
Resistencia de mentón

Atributos físicos

PonzinibbioMétricaPatterson
6'0"Estatura6'3"
73"Alcance78"
39Edad30
OrtodoxaPosturaOrtodoxa
74%Tasa de finalización93%

Récord de carrera

PonzinibbioMétricaPatterson
0Victorias por KO/TKO5
0Victorias por sumisión4
14Finalizaciones en 1.º asalto8
0Golpes significativos / min2.62
0Golpes significativos recibidos / min3.06
0%Precisión de golpeo37%
0%Defensa de golpeo50%
0.73Promedio de knockdowns / 15 min0.41
0Derribos / 15 min0.82
0%Precisión de derribo50%
0%Defensa de derribo33%
0Sumisiones / 15 min1.60
11:20Tiempo promedio de pelea05:14

Distribución de golpes

Ponzinibbio

Golpes significativos por objetivo

Objetivo principal Cabeza

Cabeza

71%

Cuerpo

13%

Pierna

17%
Golpes significativos por objetivo — Ponzinibbio

Golpes significativos por posición

De pie — 95%De pie95%
Clinch — 2%Clinch2%
Suelo — 3%Suelo3%

Posición principal De pie

Patterson

Golpes significativos por objetivo

Objetivo principal Cabeza

Cabeza

75%

Cuerpo

9%

Pierna

16%
Golpes significativos por objetivo — Patterson

Golpes significativos por posición

De pie — 91%De pie91%
Clinch — 6%Clinch6%
Suelo — 3%Suelo3%

Posición principal De pie

Inteligencia de la pelea

Consenso público

Kalshi

Ponzinibbio0%
Patterson100%

Las masas favorecen a Patterson

Ver fuente →

Últimas noticias

Ponzinibbio

Fortalezas

  • High-level knockout power
  • Extensive experience in 5-round main events
  • Vicious leg kick game

Debilidades

  • Significant age disadvantage (39)
  • Decreased speed and reactive timing
  • Coming off a TKO loss

Oportunidades

  • Expose Patterson's weak 33% TD defense
  • Counter Patterson's 3.06 SApM defensive gaps
  • Test Patterson's chin under veteran pressure

Amenazas

  • Getting trapped in Patterson's 78-inch reach
  • Submission threat from Patterson's 1.6 sub avg
  • Lack of volume against a younger, rangier foe
Patterson

Fortalezas

  • Elite height/reach for Welterweight
  • high submission finish rate (50% of wins)
  • Strong offensive wrestling accuracy (50%)

Debilidades

  • Poor takedown defense (33%)
  • Negative striking differential (absorbs more than lands)
  • Tendency to get caught in exchanges

Oportunidades

  • Use reach to keep an aging striker at bay
  • Utilize 1.6 sub avg against an older veteran
  • Force a high-pace grappling match

Amenazas

  • Ponzinibbio's veteran savvy in the pocket
  • Getting knocked out by one of the 17-KO specialist's rights
  • Fatigue if the veteran survives the early sub attempts

Análisis detallado

Traduciendo…
Ventajas clave
  • Ponzinibbio possesses 17 KO wins and significant elite-level championship experience
  • Patterson holds a massive 5-inch reach and 3-inch height advantage at Welterweight
  • Patterson's 1.6 sub average per 15 mins vs Ponzinibbio's aging defensive reactions
Posibles riesgos
  • Patterson's 33% takedown defense is a major liability if the fight hits the clinch
  • Ponzinibbio is 39 years old and coming off a TKO loss to Daniel Rodriguez
  • Patterson has absorbed more strikes (3.06 SApM) than he has landed (2.62 SLpM)
Análisis del modelo

Veteran power vs. massive reach and submission threats.

Pronóstico

Patterson will likely use his massive range to keep Ponzinibbio at the end of his jab early. Expect Ponzinibbio to find some success with leg kicks to immobile Patterson's base, but the speed discrepancy will favor the younger man. Patterson is likely to initiate a clinch or level-change once Ponzinibbio over-commits to a power right hand. Given Patterson's high finish rate (93%) and Ponzinibbio's recent TKO setback, a club-and-sub or a transition to a back-take is the most probable outcome. I anticipate a submission victory for Sam Patterson in the second round as the veteran tires.

Las valoraciones de habilidades, la probabilidad de victoria, las ventajas, los riesgos y el pronóstico son estimaciones generadas por el modelo a partir de perfiles públicos de peleadores — no son estadísticas oficiales de UFC ni garantías de resultado.

Desglose del enfrentamiento

This is a classic 'old guard vs. new blood' matchup. Ponzinibbio remains a dangerous power puncher with 17 career KOs, but his statistical output has dipped to effectively 0 on recent official tracking. Patterson is a physical outlier for 170lbs, utilizing a 78-inch reach to set up his 50% accurate takedowns. While Patterson's striking defense is porous (50%), Ponzinibbio's recent durability issues against Rodriguez suggest he may struggle to close the distance against the much taller Englishman. Patterson's path to victory lies in his 50% submission finish rate, targeting a veteran whose speed has noticeably declined.

Picks Terminal Semanal

Un informe táctico de UFC — previa los lunes, actualizaciones los viernes.

Cada lunes: la cartelera completa, las peleas clave y la probabilidad estimada por el modelo. Cada viernes: novedades a medida que se acerca la noche de pelea. Gratis, sin relleno, cancelas con un clic.