Jared Cannonier vs Christian Leroy Duncan — Middleweight — estaba programada para el sábado, 18 de julio de 2026 en UFC Fight Night: du Plessis vs. Usman en Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. Resultado oficial aún no registrado. Picks Terminal cubre el enfrentamiento con una estimación de probabilidad de victoria, un desglose del enfrentamiento e inteligencia extraída de fuentes públicas.

slot.Co-Main · MiddleweightID · DF8C99F5-E143-4ACA-B24F-EDD4444417D2

Rango #11 Middleweight · Middleweight

Jared Cannonier

"Tha Killa Gorilla"

18-9-0 · Striker / Power Puncher

Rango #13 Middleweight · Middleweight

Christian Leroy Duncan

"CLD"

14-2-0 · Switch-Stance Striker

Modelo de probabilidad de victoria · v4.2

Cannonier

44%

Ventaja12%

Duncan

56%

Comparación de habilidades

77
81
Golpeo
57
52
Lucha
82
75
Cardio
75
74
Defensa de derribos
68
88
Resistencia de mentón

Atributos físicos

CannonierMétricaDuncan
5'11"Estatura6'3"
77.5"Alcance79"
42Edad30
OrtodoxaPosturaCambiante
56%Tasa de finalización71%

Récord de carrera

CannonierMétricaDuncan
10Victorias por KO/TKO9
0Victorias por sumisión0
4.42Golpes significativos / min4.43
4.35Golpes significativos recibidos / min2.59
49%Precisión de golpeo57%
56%Defensa de golpeo52%
0.54Derribos / 15 min0.33
40%Precisión de derribo16%
64%Defensa de derribo63%
0Sumisiones / 15 min0

Inteligencia de la pelea

Consenso público

Kalshi

Cannonier23%
Duncan77%

Las masas favorecen a Duncan · Cannonier +335 / Duncan -335

Ver fuente

Últimas noticias

Sin noticias recientes

Análisis detallado

Traduciendo…
Ventajas clave
  • Cannonier possesses significant experience against elite title-level competition (Whittaker, Adesanya, Silva).
  • Duncan’s 2.59 SApM indicates superior defensive spacing compared to Cannonier’s high 4.35 SApM.
  • Duncan holds a 4-inch height advantage and a reach edge, facilitating his outside striking game.
  • Cannonier’s 49% striking accuracy vs Duncan’s 57% suggests the younger fighter is more efficient.
Posibles riesgos
  • Cannonier is 42 years old and has suffered 5 KO/TKO losses in his career, raising durability questions.
  • Duncan’s 16% takedown accuracy suggests he may struggle to dictate where the fight takes place if forced to grapple.
  • Cannonier’s 64% takedown defense is vulnerable to high-level chain wrestling, though Duncan rarely utilizes it.
Análisis del modelo

A battle between an aging, powerful veteran and a surging, creative athletic prospect.

Pronóstico

The fight will likely stay standing as both men have relatively low takedown averages (0.54 vs 0.33 per 15 min). Expect Duncan to use his 6'3" frame and switch-hitting to keep the 42-year-old Cannonier at range, peppering him with elusive shots to exploit Cannonier's 56% striking defense. Cannonier will attempt to close the distance to land his trademark power hooks, but the speed differential will favor the younger man. As the fight progresses, Cannonier’s durability may be tested by Duncan’s 57% accuracy. I forecast Christian Leroy Duncan winning a competitive but clear unanimous decision, or a late TKO as Cannonier fades in the third round.

Las valoraciones de habilidades, la probabilidad de victoria, las ventajas, los riesgos y el pronóstico son estimaciones generadas por el modelo a partir de perfiles públicos de peleadores — no son estadísticas oficiales de UFC ni garantías de resultado.

Desglose del enfrentamiento

This matchup features a massive age gap (11 years) and contrasting striking styles. Cannonier relies on heavy leg kicks and a high-volume power-punching approach (4.42 SLpM), but his defensive metrics (4.35 SApM) are concerning for a fighter in his 40s. Duncan is a highly efficient switch-striker who lands at a 57% clip while remaining difficult to hit (2.59 SApM). Statistically, Duncan is the fresher, more accurate, and more elusive fighter. While Cannonier’s experience is a factor, his statistical decline in defensive liability makes him a target for Duncan's diverse offensive arsenal.

Picks Terminal Semanal

Un informe táctico de UFC — previa los lunes, actualizaciones los viernes.

Cada lunes: la cartelera completa, las peleas clave y la probabilidad estimada por el modelo. Cada viernes: novedades a medida que se acerca la noche de pelea. Gratis, sin relleno, cancelas con un clic.