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Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys

Compare Arizona Cardinals vs Dallas Cowboys

Sunday Early · Sun, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ETARI @ DAL
Arizona Cardinals

Away

Arizona Cardinals

2-5

Dallas Cowboys

Home

Dallas Cowboys

3-4

Model Win Probability

Arizona Cardinals · Away

32%

Model
separation36%

Dallas Cowboys · Home

68%

Signal: Moderate· components agree · 100% feature coverage
Elo component
32% ARI
Efficiency component
28% ARI
Feature coverage
100%
Data cutoff
2026-10-27T22:01:46.102205Z
Model
pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3

Signal strength describes model agreement and data quality, not certainty or wagering value.

Team Efficiency Comparison

31
97
Offense
41
88
Passing
25
88
Rushing
12
3
Defense
34
3
Pass Rush
34
91
Situational

0–100 league percentile across all 32 teams. Defensive ratings are inverted so a higher number always means a better unit.

Blended Team Metrics

ARIMetricDAL
-0.025EPA / Play0.128
43.4%Success Rate48.2%
0.029Dropback EPA0.214
-0.144Rush EPA-0.016
9.5%Explosive Play Rate11.6%
41.0%3rd Down Conversion46.8%
54.6%Red Zone TD Rate66.7%
0.094Def. EPA / Play Allowed0.155

Prior-season form is blended with current-season play and its weight decays as the current sample grows. Metrics without enough data are shown as “—”, never as zero.

Game Context

Venue
AT&T Stadium
Kickoff
Sun, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
Surface
matrixturf
Away rest
7 days
Home rest
6 days
Site
Dallas Cowboys home game

Player Impact

Jacoby Brissett

QB

2026 Weeks 1–7; 7 games

CMP/ATT
183/282
Pass yds
1600
Pass TD
10
INT
6
Y/A
5.7
Sacks
15

Jeremiyah Love

RB

2026 Weeks 1–7; 5 games; last played Week 5

Carries
67
Rush yds
245
YPC
3.7
Rush TD
1
Targets
14
Rec
11

Tyler Allgeier

RB

2026 Weeks 1–7; 7 games

Carries
61
Rush yds
176
YPC
2.9
Rush TD
1
Targets
17
Rec
16

Michael Wilson

WR

2026 Weeks 1–7; 7 games

Targets
66
Rec
37
Rec yds
375
YPR
10.1
Rec TD
1

Kendrick Bourne

WR

2026 Weeks 1–7; 6 games

Targets
36
Rec
25
Rec yds
234
YPR
9.4
Rec TD
0

Scoring by Quarter

Sample · 7 games

Away · Arizona Cardinals

Q1
31
Q2
34
Q3
34
Q4
43

Home · Dallas Cowboys

Q1
40
Q2
33
Q3
54
Q4
62

Latest News

Analytical Angles

Passing profile · ARI

passing

Arizona Cardinals: 41/100 league percentile in blended 2025–26 passing EPA entering Week 8.

Passing profile · DAL

passing

Dallas Cowboys: 88/100 league percentile in blended 2025–26 passing EPA entering Week 8.

Defensive profile · ARI / DAL

efficiency

Defense EPA percentiles: Arizona Cardinals 12/100; Dallas Cowboys 3/100. Lower EPA allowed rates are better.

Availability watch

availability

Availability checked Tuesday, October 27. 0 named items in game notes; final designations may change. The forecast applies no separate injury, trade or lineup adjustment.

Statistical context only. Picks Terminal publishes matchup analysis, not wagering advice.

Keys to the Game

  • Margin-aware Elo: Arizona Cardinals 31.9%.
  • Rolling efficiency: Arizona Cardinals 28.2%.
  • defense: Arizona Cardinals 12/100, Dallas Cowboys 3/100.
  • passRush: Arizona Cardinals 34/100, Dallas Cowboys 3/100.

What Could Flip It

  • offense: Arizona Cardinals 31/100 versus Dallas Cowboys 97/100.
  • passing: Arizona Cardinals 41/100 versus Dallas Cowboys 88/100.
  • Arizona Cardinals have 7 completed 2026 games; Dallas Cowboys have 7. Prior-season form is blended into efficiency.
  • Final game status and starting lineups remain subject to change. No separate injury or trade adjustment is applied to the forecast.

Model Analysis

Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys: the v0.3 ensemble places Dallas Cowboys at 68%, using a 70% margin-aware Elo and 30% rolling-efficiency blend with strictly out-of-fold calibration. Both sides have 7 and 7 completed current-season games, respectively, with 2025 prior form. This model does not adjust separately for injuries, trades or lineup changes. The forecast is a pregame statistical estimate, not certainty or a wagering recommendation.

Forecast

Model pick: Dallas Cowboys (68%). Signal: Moderate; model agreement and data quality, not wagering value.

Sources & Methodology

Win probability: pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3 — a deterministic ensemble of a margin-aware Elo component and a regularized efficiency component built from pregame team differentials (EPA per play, dropback and rush EPA, success rate, explosive rate, sack performance, home field and rest). The blended probability is calibrated on training seasons only and validated by walk-forward backtest against completed results. All inputs come from public play-by-play and schedule data. No external market data of any kind is used anywhere on this page.