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Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Compare Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Sunday Early · Sun, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ETATL @ TB
Atlanta Falcons

Away

Atlanta Falcons

3-4

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Home

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2-5

Model Win Probability

Atlanta Falcons · Away

47%

Model
separation6%

Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Home

53%

Signal: Unrated· components disagree · 100% feature coverage
Elo component
45% ATL
Efficiency component
55% ATL
Feature coverage
100%
Data cutoff
2026-10-27T22:01:46.102333Z
Model
pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3

Signal strength describes model agreement and data quality, not certainty or wagering value.

Team Efficiency Comparison

38
28
Offense
34
38
Passing
59
69
Rushing
66
72
Defense
81
50
Pass Rush
66
53
Situational

0–100 league percentile across all 32 teams. Defensive ratings are inverted so a higher number always means a better unit.

Blended Team Metrics

ATLMetricTB
-0.020EPA / Play-0.030
44.5%Success Rate42.4%
0.016Dropback EPA0.028
-0.077Rush EPA-0.061
12.6%Explosive Play Rate10.3%
37.8%3rd Down Conversion42.7%
64.3%Red Zone TD Rate56.3%
-0.009Def. EPA / Play Allowed-0.040

Prior-season form is blended with current-season play and its weight decays as the current sample grows. Metrics without enough data are shown as “—”, never as zero.

Game Context

Venue
Raymond James Stadium
Kickoff
Sun, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
Roof
outdoors
Surface
grass
Away rest
7 days
Home rest
7 days
Site
Tampa Bay Buccaneers home game

Player Impact

Michael Penix Jr.

QB

2026 Weeks 3–7; 5 games

CMP/ATT
96/144
Pass yds
1157
Pass TD
9
INT
1
Y/A
8
Sacks
9

Bijan Robinson

RB

2026 Weeks 1–7; 7 games

Carries
131
Rush yds
704
YPC
5.4
Rush TD
4
Targets
32
Rec
25

Brian Robinson

RB

2026 Weeks 1–7; 6 games; last played Week 6

Carries
53
Rush yds
211
YPC
4
Rush TD
4
Targets
6
Rec
5

Drake London

WR

2026 Weeks 1–7; 7 games

Targets
56
Rec
38
Rec yds
616
YPR
16.2
Rec TD
1

Jahan Dotson

WR

2026 Weeks 1–7; 7 games

Targets
25
Rec
12
Rec yds
242
YPR
20.2
Rec TD
2

Scoring by Quarter

Sample · 7 games

Away · Atlanta Falcons

Q1
38
Q2
46
Q3
27
Q4
60

Home · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Q1
26
Q2
63
Q3
43
Q4
30

Latest News

Analytical Angles

Passing profile · ATL

passing

Atlanta Falcons: 34/100 league percentile in blended 2025–26 passing EPA entering Week 8.

Passing profile · TB

passing

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 38/100 league percentile in blended 2025–26 passing EPA entering Week 8.

Defensive profile · ATL / TB

efficiency

Defense EPA percentiles: Atlanta Falcons 66/100; Tampa Bay Buccaneers 72/100. Lower EPA allowed rates are better.

Availability watch

availability

Availability checked Tuesday, October 27. 0 named items in game notes; final designations may change. The forecast applies no separate injury, trade or lineup adjustment.

Statistical context only. Picks Terminal publishes matchup analysis, not wagering advice.

Keys to the Game

  • Margin-aware Elo: Atlanta Falcons 44.7%.
  • Rolling efficiency: Atlanta Falcons 55.1%.
  • defense: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 72/100, Atlanta Falcons 66/100.
  • passRush: Atlanta Falcons 81/100, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 50/100.

What Could Flip It

  • offense: Atlanta Falcons 38/100 versus Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28/100.
  • passing: Atlanta Falcons 34/100 versus Tampa Bay Buccaneers 38/100.
  • Atlanta Falcons have 7 completed 2026 games; Tampa Bay Buccaneers have 7. Prior-season form is blended into efficiency.
  • Final game status and starting lineups remain subject to change. No separate injury or trade adjustment is applied to the forecast.

Model Analysis

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: the v0.3 ensemble places Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 53%, using a 70% margin-aware Elo and 30% rolling-efficiency blend with strictly out-of-fold calibration. Both sides have 7 and 7 completed current-season games, respectively, with 2025 prior form. This model does not adjust separately for injuries, trades or lineup changes. The forecast is a pregame statistical estimate, not certainty or a wagering recommendation.

Forecast

Model pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (53%). Signal: Unrated; model agreement and data quality, not wagering value.

Sources & Methodology

Win probability: pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3 — a deterministic ensemble of a margin-aware Elo component and a regularized efficiency component built from pregame team differentials (EPA per play, dropback and rush EPA, success rate, explosive rate, sack performance, home field and rest). The blended probability is calibrated on training seasons only and validated by walk-forward backtest against completed results. All inputs come from public play-by-play and schedule data. No external market data of any kind is used anywhere on this page.