Away
Baltimore Ravens
4-3
Home
Buffalo Bills
5-1
Model Win Probability
Baltimore Ravens · Away
29%
separation42%
Buffalo Bills · Home
71%
- Elo component
- 28% BAL
- Efficiency component
- 26% BAL
- Feature coverage
- 100%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-10-27T22:01:46.102464Z
- Model
- pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3
Signal strength describes model agreement and data quality, not certainty or wagering value.
Team Efficiency Comparison
0–100 league percentile across all 32 teams. Defensive ratings are inverted so a higher number always means a better unit.
Blended Team Metrics
| BAL | Metric | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 0.055 | EPA / Play | 0.167 |
| 45.2% | Success Rate | 48.7% |
| 0.137 | Dropback EPA | 0.266 |
| -0.032 | Rush EPA | 0.016 |
| 14.8% | Explosive Play Rate | 16.0% |
| 40.8% | 3rd Down Conversion | 49.1% |
| 52.8% | Red Zone TD Rate | 68.3% |
| 0.022 | Def. EPA / Play Allowed | 0.054 |
Prior-season form is blended with current-season play and its weight decays as the current sample grows. Metrics without enough data are shown as “—”, never as zero.
Game Context
- Venue
- Highmark Stadium
- Kickoff
- Sun, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- Roof
- outdoors
- Surface
- a_turf
- Away rest
- 7 days
- Home rest
- 14 days
- Site
- Buffalo Bills home game
Player Impact
Tyler Huntley
QB2026 Weeks 4–7; 4 games
- CMP/ATT
- 74/106
- Pass yds
- 727
- Pass TD
- 4
- INT
- 1
- Y/A
- 6.9
- Sacks
- 10
Derrick Henry
RB2026 Weeks 1–7; 7 games
- Carries
- 147
- Rush yds
- 579
- YPC
- 3.9
- Rush TD
- 7
- Targets
- 12
- Rec
- 10
Justice Hill
RB2026 Weeks 1–7; 7 games
- Carries
- 21
- Rush yds
- 140
- YPC
- 6.7
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 17
- Rec
- 13
Zay Flowers
WR2026 Weeks 1–7; 6 games
- Targets
- 53
- Rec
- 40
- Rec yds
- 608
- YPR
- 15.2
- Rec TD
- 3
Rashod Bateman
WR2026 Weeks 1–7; 7 games
- Targets
- 26
- Rec
- 18
- Rec yds
- 266
- YPR
- 14.8
- Rec TD
- 1
Away · Baltimore Ravens
Tyler Huntley
QB2026 Weeks 4–7; 4 games
- CMP/ATT
- 74/106
- Pass yds
- 727
- Pass TD
- 4
- INT
- 1
- Y/A
- 6.9
- Sacks
- 10
Derrick Henry
RB2026 Weeks 1–7; 7 games
- Carries
- 147
- Rush yds
- 579
- YPC
- 3.9
- Rush TD
- 7
- Targets
- 12
- Rec
- 10
Justice Hill
RB2026 Weeks 1–7; 7 games
- Carries
- 21
- Rush yds
- 140
- YPC
- 6.7
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 17
- Rec
- 13
Zay Flowers
WR2026 Weeks 1–7; 6 games
- Targets
- 53
- Rec
- 40
- Rec yds
- 608
- YPR
- 15.2
- Rec TD
- 3
Rashod Bateman
WR2026 Weeks 1–7; 7 games
- Targets
- 26
- Rec
- 18
- Rec yds
- 266
- YPR
- 14.8
- Rec TD
- 1
Home · Buffalo Bills
Josh Allen
QB2026 Weeks 1–7; 6 games; last played Week 6
- CMP/ATT
- 114/171
- Pass yds
- 1504
- Pass TD
- 9
- INT
- 4
- Y/A
- 8.8
- Sacks
- 12
James Cook
RB2026 Weeks 1–7; 6 games; last played Week 6
- Carries
- 117
- Rush yds
- 627
- YPC
- 5.4
- Rush TD
- 6
- Targets
- 14
- Rec
- 10
Ray Davis
RB2026 Weeks 1–7; 5 games; last played Week 6
- Carries
- 5
- Rush yds
- 12
- YPC
- 2.4
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 3
- Rec
- 3
Khalil Shakir
WR2026 Weeks 1–7; 6 games; last played Week 6
- Targets
- 32
- Rec
- 22
- Rec yds
- 290
- YPR
- 13.2
- Rec TD
- 1
Keon Coleman
WR2026 Weeks 1–7; 6 games; last played Week 6
- Targets
- 24
- Rec
- 19
- Rec yds
- 283
- YPR
- 14.9
- Rec TD
- 3
Injuries & Availability
Away · Baltimore Ravens
Lamar JacksonQB
UncertainAnkle; availability to be assessed after Wednesday practice
Checked Tue, Oct 27, 2026; final game designation pending unless IR/suspended/traded.
Olaivavega IoaneG
InjuredMCL sprain; expected to miss some time
Checked Tue, Oct 27, 2026; final game designation pending unless IR/suspended/traded.
Home · Buffalo Bills
C.J. Gardner-JohnsonDB
SuspendedOne-game suspension; misses Week 8
Checked Tue, Oct 27, 2026; final game designation pending unless IR/suspended/traded.
Scoring by Quarter
Sample · 7 gamesAway · Baltimore Ravens
Home · Buffalo Bills
Latest News
- Chargers Injury Report: Ladd McConkey, Brenen Thompson DNP for 2nd consecutive practice
Yahoo Sports NFL · 1h ago · BAL / LAC
- Injured QB Jackson doing 'well' as Ravens eye 6-10 weeks out, Minter says
ESPN NFL · 1h ago · BAL
- Buffalo Bills safety Amani Hooker will make his debut Week 10 vs. NY Jets
Yahoo Sports NFL · 2h ago · BUF / NYJ
- Titans' Rivalries combination, Ravens' all-black threads top NFL Week 10 uniforms
ESPN NFL · 3h ago · BAL / TEN
- Bills RT Spencer Brown is doubtful with ankle injury
NBC Sports ProFootballTalk · 3h ago · BUF / NYJ
Analytical Angles
Passing profile · BAL
passingBaltimore Ravens: 69/100 league percentile in blended 2025–26 passing EPA entering Week 8.
Passing profile · BUF
passingBuffalo Bills: 97/100 league percentile in blended 2025–26 passing EPA entering Week 8.
Defensive profile · BAL / BUF
efficiencyDefense EPA percentiles: Baltimore Ravens 41/100; Buffalo Bills 31/100. Lower EPA allowed rates are better.
Availability watch
availabilityAvailability checked Tuesday, October 27. 3 named items in game notes; final designations may change. The forecast applies no separate injury, trade or lineup adjustment.
Statistical context only. Picks Terminal publishes matchup analysis, not wagering advice.
Keys to the Game
- Margin-aware Elo: Baltimore Ravens 28.0%.
- Rolling efficiency: Baltimore Ravens 26.1%.
- defense: Baltimore Ravens 41/100, Buffalo Bills 31/100.
- passRush: Buffalo Bills 44/100, Baltimore Ravens 28/100.
What Could Flip It
- offense: Baltimore Ravens 69/100 versus Buffalo Bills 100/100.
- passing: Baltimore Ravens 69/100 versus Buffalo Bills 97/100.
- Baltimore Ravens have 7 completed 2026 games; Buffalo Bills have 6. Prior-season form is blended into efficiency.
- Final game status and starting lineups remain subject to change. No separate injury or trade adjustment is applied to the forecast.
Model Analysis
Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills: the v0.3 ensemble places Buffalo Bills at 71%, using a 70% margin-aware Elo and 30% rolling-efficiency blend with strictly out-of-fold calibration. Both sides have 7 and 6 completed current-season games, respectively, with 2025 prior form. This model does not adjust separately for injuries, trades or lineup changes. The forecast is a pregame statistical estimate, not certainty or a wagering recommendation.
Forecast
Model pick: Buffalo Bills (71%). Signal: Unrated; model agreement and data quality, not wagering value.
Sources & Methodology
Win probability: pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3 — a deterministic ensemble of a margin-aware Elo component and a regularized efficiency component built from pregame team differentials (EPA per play, dropback and rush EPA, success rate, explosive rate, sack performance, home field and rest). The blended probability is calibrated on training seasons only and validated by walk-forward backtest against completed results. All inputs come from public play-by-play and schedule data. No external market data of any kind is used anywhere on this page.