Away
Carolina Panthers
3-3
Home
Green Bay Packers
4-3
Model Win Probability
Carolina Panthers · Away
34%
separation32%
Green Bay Packers · Home
66%
- Elo component
- 31% CAR
- Efficiency component
- 38% CAR
- Feature coverage
- 100%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-10-27T22:01:46.101832Z
- Model
- pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3
Signal strength describes model agreement and data quality, not certainty or wagering value.
Team Efficiency Comparison
0–100 league percentile across all 32 teams. Defensive ratings are inverted so a higher number always means a better unit.
Blended Team Metrics
| CAR | Metric | GB |
|---|---|---|
| -0.010 | EPA / Play | 0.066 |
| 43.1% | Success Rate | 43.8% |
| 0.046 | Dropback EPA | 0.206 |
| -0.099 | Rush EPA | -0.192 |
| 12.3% | Explosive Play Rate | 13.1% |
| 39.2% | 3rd Down Conversion | 43.1% |
| 59.1% | Red Zone TD Rate | 55.4% |
| 0.048 | Def. EPA / Play Allowed | 0.005 |
Prior-season form is blended with current-season play and its weight decays as the current sample grows. Metrics without enough data are shown as “—”, never as zero.
Game Context
- Venue
- Lambeau Field
- Kickoff
- Thu, Oct 29, 8:15 PM ET
- Roof
- outdoors
- Surface
- grass
- Away rest
- 4 days
- Home rest
- 4 days
- Site
- Green Bay Packers home game
Player Impact
Bryce Young
QB2026 Weeks 1–7; 6 games
- CMP/ATT
- 135/228
- Pass yds
- 1712
- Pass TD
- 12
- INT
- 4
- Y/A
- 7.5
- Sacks
- 17
Chuba Hubbard
RB2026 Weeks 1–7; 6 games
- Carries
- 96
- Rush yds
- 459
- YPC
- 4.8
- Rush TD
- 4
- Targets
- 18
- Rec
- 15
AJ Dillon
RB2026 Weeks 1–7; 4 games; last played Week 4
- Carries
- 17
- Rush yds
- 43
- YPC
- 2.5
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 2
- Rec
- 2
Tetairoa McMillan
WR2026 Weeks 1–7; 6 games
- Targets
- 54
- Rec
- 36
- Rec yds
- 511
- YPR
- 14.2
- Rec TD
- 2
Jalen Coker
WR2026 Weeks 1–7; 5 games
- Targets
- 39
- Rec
- 25
- Rec yds
- 328
- YPR
- 13.1
- Rec TD
- 2
Away · Carolina Panthers
Bryce Young
QB2026 Weeks 1–7; 6 games
- CMP/ATT
- 135/228
- Pass yds
- 1712
- Pass TD
- 12
- INT
- 4
- Y/A
- 7.5
- Sacks
- 17
Chuba Hubbard
RB2026 Weeks 1–7; 6 games
- Carries
- 96
- Rush yds
- 459
- YPC
- 4.8
- Rush TD
- 4
- Targets
- 18
- Rec
- 15
AJ Dillon
RB2026 Weeks 1–7; 4 games; last played Week 4
- Carries
- 17
- Rush yds
- 43
- YPC
- 2.5
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 2
- Rec
- 2
Tetairoa McMillan
WR2026 Weeks 1–7; 6 games
- Targets
- 54
- Rec
- 36
- Rec yds
- 511
- YPR
- 14.2
- Rec TD
- 2
Jalen Coker
WR2026 Weeks 1–7; 5 games
- Targets
- 39
- Rec
- 25
- Rec yds
- 328
- YPR
- 13.1
- Rec TD
- 2
Home · Green Bay Packers
Jordan Love
QB2026 Weeks 1–7; 7 games
- CMP/ATT
- 162/271
- Pass yds
- 1958
- Pass TD
- 13
- INT
- 5
- Y/A
- 7.2
- Sacks
- 14
MarShawn Lloyd
RB2026 Weeks 1–7; 7 games
- Carries
- 54
- Rush yds
- 142
- YPC
- 2.6
- Rush TD
- 2
- Targets
- 16
- Rec
- 12
Kaleb Johnson
RB2026 Weeks 1–7; 6 games; last played Week 6
- Carries
- 28
- Rush yds
- 104
- YPC
- 3.7
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 3
- Rec
- 1
Matthew Golden
WR2026 Weeks 1–7; 7 games
- Targets
- 69
- Rec
- 36
- Rec yds
- 540
- YPR
- 15
- Rec TD
- 3
Christian Watson
WR2026 Weeks 1–7; 7 games
- Targets
- 56
- Rec
- 34
- Rec yds
- 595
- YPR
- 17.5
- Rec TD
- 6
Injuries & Availability
Away · Carolina Panthers
Taylor MotonOT
IRFractured fibula; season-ending ankle surgery
Checked Tue, Oct 27, 2026; final game designation pending unless IR/suspended/traded.
Damien LewisG
DNPKnee; Tuesday walkthrough
Checked Tue, Oct 27, 2026; final game designation pending unless IR/suspended/traded.
Jaelan PhillipsOLB
DNPHamstring; Tuesday walkthrough
Checked Tue, Oct 27, 2026; final game designation pending unless IR/suspended/traded.
Bryce YoungQB
FullKnee; full practice estimate Monday
Checked Tue, Oct 27, 2026; final game designation pending unless IR/suspended/traded.
Home · Green Bay Packers
Matthew GoldenWR
DNPShoulder/foot; Tuesday practice estimate
Checked Tue, Oct 27, 2026; final game designation pending unless IR/suspended/traded.
Sean RhyanC
DNPAnkle; Tuesday practice estimate
Checked Tue, Oct 27, 2026; final game designation pending unless IR/suspended/traded.
Zaire FranklinLB
DNPShin; Tuesday practice estimate
Checked Tue, Oct 27, 2026; final game designation pending unless IR/suspended/traded.
Scoring by Quarter
Sample · 7 gamesAway · Carolina Panthers
Home · Green Bay Packers
Latest News
- Love throws for 5K yards? Mendoza shines in Vegas? Don't be surprised!
ESPN NFL · just now · GB
- On Kirk Cousins (and Packers Week, Too!)
Yahoo Sports NFL · 1h ago · GB
- First Cousins: QB to get start vs. Packers in Vikings return
ESPN NFL · 1h ago · GB / MIN
- Vikings-Packers Final Injury Report
Yahoo Sports NFL · 2h ago · GB / MIN
- Vikings name Week 10 starter vs Packers after Kirk Cousins trade
Yahoo Sports NFL · 2h ago · GB / MIN
Analytical Angles
Passing profile · CAR
passingCarolina Panthers: 47/100 league percentile in blended 2025–26 passing EPA entering Week 8.
Passing profile · GB
passingGreen Bay Packers: 84/100 league percentile in blended 2025–26 passing EPA entering Week 8.
Defensive profile · CAR / GB
efficiencyDefense EPA percentiles: Carolina Panthers 34/100; Green Bay Packers 56/100. Lower EPA allowed rates are better.
Availability watch
availabilityAvailability checked Tuesday, October 27. 7 named items in game notes; final designations may change. The forecast applies no separate injury, trade or lineup adjustment.
Statistical context only. Picks Terminal publishes matchup analysis, not wagering advice.
Keys to the Game
- Margin-aware Elo: Carolina Panthers 30.9%.
- Rolling efficiency: Carolina Panthers 37.7%.
- defense: Green Bay Packers 56/100, Carolina Panthers 34/100.
- passRush: Green Bay Packers 47/100, Carolina Panthers 16/100.
What Could Flip It
- offense: Carolina Panthers 41/100 versus Green Bay Packers 78/100.
- passing: Carolina Panthers 47/100 versus Green Bay Packers 84/100.
- Carolina Panthers have 6 completed 2026 games; Green Bay Packers have 7. Prior-season form is blended into efficiency.
- Final game status and starting lineups remain subject to change. No separate injury or trade adjustment is applied to the forecast.
Model Analysis
Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers: the v0.3 ensemble places Green Bay Packers at 66%, using a 70% margin-aware Elo and 30% rolling-efficiency blend with strictly out-of-fold calibration. Both sides have 6 and 7 completed current-season games, respectively, with 2025 prior form. This model does not adjust separately for injuries, trades or lineup changes. The forecast is a pregame statistical estimate, not certainty or a wagering recommendation.
Forecast
Model pick: Green Bay Packers (66%). Signal: Moderate; model agreement and data quality, not wagering value.
Sources & Methodology
Win probability: pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3 — a deterministic ensemble of a margin-aware Elo component and a regularized efficiency component built from pregame team differentials (EPA per play, dropback and rush EPA, success rate, explosive rate, sack performance, home field and rest). The blended probability is calibrated on training seasons only and validated by walk-forward backtest against completed results. All inputs come from public play-by-play and schedule data. No external market data of any kind is used anywhere on this page.