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Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks

Compare Chicago Bears vs Seattle Seahawks

Monday Night · Mon, Nov 2, 8:15 PM ETCHI @ SEA
Chicago Bears

Away

Chicago Bears

5-2

Seattle Seahawks

Home

Seattle Seahawks

4-3

Model Win Probability

Chicago Bears · Away

37%

Model
separation26%

Seattle Seahawks · Home

63%

Signal: Unrated· components disagree · 100% feature coverage
Elo component
30% CHI
Efficiency component
50% CHI
Feature coverage
100%
Data cutoff
2026-10-27T22:01:46.103638Z
Model
pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3

Signal strength describes model agreement and data quality, not certainty or wagering value.

Team Efficiency Comparison

75
50
Offense
72
75
Passing
72
16
Rushing
59
97
Defense
75
62
Pass Rush
69
25
Situational

0–100 league percentile across all 32 teams. Defensive ratings are inverted so a higher number always means a better unit.

Blended Team Metrics

CHIMetricSEA
0.062EPA / Play0.009
46.1%Success Rate44.8%
0.144Dropback EPA0.162
-0.046Rush EPA-0.160
12.8%Explosive Play Rate13.2%
44.1%3rd Down Conversion40.4%
58.5%Red Zone TD Rate53.6%
0.000Def. EPA / Play Allowed-0.129

Prior-season form is blended with current-season play and its weight decays as the current sample grows. Metrics without enough data are shown as “—”, never as zero.

Game Context

Venue
Lumen Field
Kickoff
Mon, Nov 2, 8:15 PM ET
Roof
outdoors
Surface
fieldturf
Away rest
11 days
Home rest
8 days
Site
Seattle Seahawks home game

Player Impact

Caleb Williams

QB

2026 Weeks 1–7; 4 games

CMP/ATT
88/124
Pass yds
1020
Pass TD
5
INT
1
Y/A
8.2
Sacks
12

D'Andre Swift

RB

2026 Weeks 1–7; 7 games

Carries
116
Rush yds
476
YPC
4.1
Rush TD
7
Targets
25
Rec
22

Kyle Monangai

RB

2026 Weeks 1–7; 4 games; last played Week 4

Carries
60
Rush yds
324
YPC
5.4
Rush TD
3
Targets
5
Rec
5

Luther Burden III

WR

2026 Weeks 1–7; 7 games

Targets
47
Rec
35
Rec yds
491
YPR
14
Rec TD
2

Rome Odunze

WR

2026 Weeks 1–7; 7 games

Targets
38
Rec
24
Rec yds
381
YPR
15.9
Rec TD
0

Injuries & Availability

Home · Seattle Seahawks

Quenton NelsonG

Acquired

Acquired from Colts October 27

Checked Tue, Oct 27, 2026; final game designation pending unless IR/suspended/traded.

Rashid ShaheedWR

Injured

Knee; early reports positive, later status pending

Checked Tue, Oct 27, 2026; final game designation pending unless IR/suspended/traded.

Scoring by Quarter

Sample · 7 games

Away · Chicago Bears

Q1
55
Q2
50
Q3
45
Q4
30

Home · Seattle Seahawks

Q1
24
Q2
39
Q3
46
Q4
59

Latest News

Analytical Angles

Passing profile · CHI

passing

Chicago Bears: 72/100 league percentile in blended 2025–26 passing EPA entering Week 8.

Passing profile · SEA

passing

Seattle Seahawks: 75/100 league percentile in blended 2025–26 passing EPA entering Week 8.

Defensive profile · CHI / SEA

efficiency

Defense EPA percentiles: Chicago Bears 59/100; Seattle Seahawks 97/100. Lower EPA allowed rates are better.

Availability watch

availability

Availability checked Tuesday, October 27. 2 named items in game notes; final designations may change. The forecast applies no separate injury, trade or lineup adjustment.

Statistical context only. Picks Terminal publishes matchup analysis, not wagering advice.

Keys to the Game

  • Margin-aware Elo: Chicago Bears 30.4%.
  • Rolling efficiency: Chicago Bears 50.4%.
  • defense: Seattle Seahawks 97/100, Chicago Bears 59/100.
  • passRush: Chicago Bears 75/100, Seattle Seahawks 62/100.

What Could Flip It

  • offense: Chicago Bears 75/100 versus Seattle Seahawks 50/100.
  • passing: Chicago Bears 72/100 versus Seattle Seahawks 75/100.
  • Chicago Bears have 7 completed 2026 games; Seattle Seahawks have 7. Prior-season form is blended into efficiency.
  • Final game status and starting lineups remain subject to change. No separate injury or trade adjustment is applied to the forecast.

Model Analysis

Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks: the v0.3 ensemble places Seattle Seahawks at 63%, using a 70% margin-aware Elo and 30% rolling-efficiency blend with strictly out-of-fold calibration. Both sides have 7 and 7 completed current-season games, respectively, with 2025 prior form. This model does not adjust separately for injuries, trades or lineup changes. The forecast is a pregame statistical estimate, not certainty or a wagering recommendation.

Forecast

Model pick: Seattle Seahawks (63%). Signal: Unrated; model agreement and data quality, not wagering value.

Sources & Methodology

Win probability: pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3 — a deterministic ensemble of a margin-aware Elo component and a regularized efficiency component built from pregame team differentials (EPA per play, dropback and rush EPA, success rate, explosive rate, sack performance, home field and rest). The blended probability is calibrated on training seasons only and validated by walk-forward backtest against completed results. All inputs come from public play-by-play and schedule data. No external market data of any kind is used anywhere on this page.