Away
Indianapolis Colts
2-5
Home
Jacksonville Jaguars
4-2
Model Win Probability
Indianapolis Colts · Away
28%
separation44%
Jacksonville Jaguars · Home
72%
- Elo component
- 24% IND
- Efficiency component
- 33% IND
- Feature coverage
- 100%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-10-27T22:01:46.102667Z
- Model
- pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3
Signal strength describes model agreement and data quality, not certainty or wagering value.
Team Efficiency Comparison
0–100 league percentile across all 32 teams. Defensive ratings are inverted so a higher number always means a better unit.
Blended Team Metrics
| IND | Metric | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| 0.014 | EPA / Play | 0.074 |
| 44.6% | Success Rate | 45.6% |
| -0.004 | Dropback EPA | 0.177 |
| 0.047 | Rush EPA | -0.072 |
| 12.0% | Explosive Play Rate | 13.3% |
| 41.8% | 3rd Down Conversion | 45.0% |
| 63.7% | Red Zone TD Rate | 63.9% |
| 0.015 | Def. EPA / Play Allowed | -0.062 |
Prior-season form is blended with current-season play and its weight decays as the current sample grows. Metrics without enough data are shown as “—”, never as zero.
Game Context
- Venue
- EverBank Stadium
- Kickoff
- Sun, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- Roof
- outdoors
- Surface
- grass
- Away rest
- 7 days
- Home rest
- 14 days
- Site
- Jacksonville Jaguars home game
Player Impact
Daniel Jones
QB2026 Weeks 1–7; 7 games
- CMP/ATT
- 143/240
- Pass yds
- 1398
- Pass TD
- 4
- INT
- 7
- Y/A
- 5.8
- Sacks
- 19
Jonathan Taylor
RB2026 Weeks 1–7; 7 games
- Carries
- 140
- Rush yds
- 587
- YPC
- 4.2
- Rush TD
- 8
- Targets
- 26
- Rec
- 17
Seth McGowan
RB2026 Weeks 1–7; 7 games
- Carries
- 32
- Rush yds
- 134
- YPC
- 4.2
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 5
- Rec
- 4
Josh Downs
WR2026 Weeks 1–7; 7 games
- Targets
- 46
- Rec
- 26
- Rec yds
- 307
- YPR
- 11.8
- Rec TD
- 0
Keenan Allen
WR2026 Weeks 1–7; 6 games
- Targets
- 43
- Rec
- 29
- Rec yds
- 258
- YPR
- 8.9
- Rec TD
- 1
Away · Indianapolis Colts
Daniel Jones
QB2026 Weeks 1–7; 7 games
- CMP/ATT
- 143/240
- Pass yds
- 1398
- Pass TD
- 4
- INT
- 7
- Y/A
- 5.8
- Sacks
- 19
Jonathan Taylor
RB2026 Weeks 1–7; 7 games
- Carries
- 140
- Rush yds
- 587
- YPC
- 4.2
- Rush TD
- 8
- Targets
- 26
- Rec
- 17
Seth McGowan
RB2026 Weeks 1–7; 7 games
- Carries
- 32
- Rush yds
- 134
- YPC
- 4.2
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 5
- Rec
- 4
Josh Downs
WR2026 Weeks 1–7; 7 games
- Targets
- 46
- Rec
- 26
- Rec yds
- 307
- YPR
- 11.8
- Rec TD
- 0
Keenan Allen
WR2026 Weeks 1–7; 6 games
- Targets
- 43
- Rec
- 29
- Rec yds
- 258
- YPR
- 8.9
- Rec TD
- 1
Home · Jacksonville Jaguars
Trevor Lawrence
QB2026 Weeks 1–7; 6 games; last played Week 6
- CMP/ATT
- 120/184
- Pass yds
- 1480
- Pass TD
- 14
- INT
- 4
- Y/A
- 8
- Sacks
- 10
Bhayshul Tuten
RB2026 Weeks 1–7; 6 games; last played Week 6
- Carries
- 94
- Rush yds
- 388
- YPC
- 4.1
- Rush TD
- 2
- Targets
- 14
- Rec
- 13
Chris Rodriguez Jr.
RB2026 Weeks 1–7; 6 games; last played Week 6
- Carries
- 39
- Rush yds
- 168
- YPC
- 4.3
- Rush TD
- 2
- Targets
- 2
- Rec
- 1
Parker Washington
WR2026 Weeks 1–7; 6 games; last played Week 6
- Targets
- 46
- Rec
- 26
- Rec yds
- 416
- YPR
- 16
- Rec TD
- 4
Jakobi Meyers
WR2026 Weeks 1–7; 6 games; last played Week 6
- Targets
- 28
- Rec
- 20
- Rec yds
- 285
- YPR
- 14.2
- Rec TD
- 2
Injuries & Availability
Away · Indianapolis Colts
Quenton NelsonG
TradedTraded to Seahawks October 27
Checked Tue, Oct 27, 2026; final game designation pending unless IR/suspended/traded.
DeForest BucknerDT
TradedTraded to 49ers October 27
Checked Tue, Oct 27, 2026; final game designation pending unless IR/suspended/traded.
Scoring by Quarter
Sample · 7 gamesAway · Indianapolis Colts
Home · Jacksonville Jaguars
Latest News
- Rookie WR Tate among multiple Titans starters ruled out vs. Jags
ESPN NFL · 1h ago · JAX / TEN
- Jaguars holding out new players Davis, Bates to give them bye
ESPN NFL · 1h ago · JAX
- Indianapolis Colts Injury Report: Who's In and Who's Out
Yahoo Sports NFL · 2h ago · IND
- Robert Saleh says he and Liam Coen are good after "misunderstanding" last year
NBC Sports ProFootballTalk · 4h ago · JAX / SF / TEN
- Seven things Solak thinks: Jags to the Super Bowl? Plus, early All-Pro picks and more
ESPN NFL · 1d ago · JAX
Analytical Angles
Passing profile · IND
passingIndianapolis Colts: 22/100 league percentile in blended 2025–26 passing EPA entering Week 8.
Passing profile · JAX
passingJacksonville Jaguars: 81/100 league percentile in blended 2025–26 passing EPA entering Week 8.
Defensive profile · IND / JAX
efficiencyDefense EPA percentiles: Indianapolis Colts 47/100; Jacksonville Jaguars 88/100. Lower EPA allowed rates are better.
Availability watch
availabilityAvailability checked Tuesday, October 27. 2 named items in game notes; final designations may change. The forecast applies no separate injury, trade or lineup adjustment.
Statistical context only. Picks Terminal publishes matchup analysis, not wagering advice.
Keys to the Game
- Margin-aware Elo: Indianapolis Colts 23.5%.
- Rolling efficiency: Indianapolis Colts 33.0%.
- defense: Jacksonville Jaguars 88/100, Indianapolis Colts 47/100.
- passRush: Indianapolis Colts 31/100, Jacksonville Jaguars 9/100.
What Could Flip It
- offense: Indianapolis Colts 56/100 versus Jacksonville Jaguars 81/100.
- passing: Indianapolis Colts 22/100 versus Jacksonville Jaguars 81/100.
- Indianapolis Colts have 7 completed 2026 games; Jacksonville Jaguars have 6. Prior-season form is blended into efficiency.
- Final game status and starting lineups remain subject to change. No separate injury or trade adjustment is applied to the forecast.
Model Analysis
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars: the v0.3 ensemble places Jacksonville Jaguars at 72%, using a 70% margin-aware Elo and 30% rolling-efficiency blend with strictly out-of-fold calibration. Both sides have 7 and 6 completed current-season games, respectively, with 2025 prior form. This model does not adjust separately for injuries, trades or lineup changes. The forecast is a pregame statistical estimate, not certainty or a wagering recommendation.
Forecast
Model pick: Jacksonville Jaguars (72%). Signal: Moderate; model agreement and data quality, not wagering value.
Sources & Methodology
Win probability: pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3 — a deterministic ensemble of a margin-aware Elo component and a regularized efficiency component built from pregame team differentials (EPA per play, dropback and rush EPA, success rate, explosive rate, sack performance, home field and rest). The blended probability is calibrated on training seasons only and validated by walk-forward backtest against completed results. All inputs come from public play-by-play and schedule data. No external market data of any kind is used anywhere on this page.