NFL Week 8 slate →NFL dashboard →

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos

Compare Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos

Sunday Late · Sun, Nov 1, 4:25 PM ETKC @ DEN
Kansas City Chiefs

Away

Kansas City Chiefs

5-1

Denver Broncos

Home

Denver Broncos

5-2

Model Win Probability

Kansas City Chiefs · Away

41%

Model
separation18%

Denver Broncos · Home

59%

Signal: Lean· components agree · 100% feature coverage
Elo component
38% KC
Efficiency component
49% KC
Feature coverage
100%
Data cutoff
2026-10-27T22:01:46.103312Z
Model
pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3

Signal strength describes model agreement and data quality, not certainty or wagering value.

Team Efficiency Comparison

72
44
Offense
59
50
Passing
91
50
Rushing
75
94
Defense
19
97
Pass Rush
28
72
Situational

0–100 league percentile across all 32 teams. Defensive ratings are inverted so a higher number always means a better unit.

Blended Team Metrics

KCMetricDEN
0.056EPA / Play-0.004
44.9%Success Rate40.9%
0.094Dropback EPA0.053
-0.003Rush EPA-0.086
12.9%Explosive Play Rate9.9%
39.3%3rd Down Conversion38.7%
55.3%Red Zone TD Rate64.2%
-0.040Def. EPA / Play Allowed-0.065

Prior-season form is blended with current-season play and its weight decays as the current sample grows. Metrics without enough data are shown as “—”, never as zero.

Game Context

Venue
Empower Field at Mile High
Kickoff
Sun, Nov 1, 4:25 PM ET
Roof
outdoors
Surface
grass
Away rest
7 days
Home rest
7 days
Site
Denver Broncos home game

Player Impact

Patrick Mahomes

QB

2026 Weeks 1–7; 6 games

CMP/ATT
124/191
Pass yds
1474
Pass TD
9
INT
4
Y/A
7.7
Sacks
7

Kenneth Walker III

RB

2026 Weeks 1–7; 6 games

Carries
120
Rush yds
701
YPC
5.8
Rush TD
6
Targets
27
Rec
18

Emmett Johnson

RB

2026 Weeks 1–7; 6 games

Carries
19
Rush yds
62
YPC
3.3
Rush TD
0
Targets
11
Rec
9

Xavier Worthy

WR

2026 Weeks 1–7; 6 games

Targets
35
Rec
24
Rec yds
217
YPR
9
Rec TD
1

Rashee Rice

WR

2026 Weeks 1–7; 3 games; last played Week 3

Targets
17
Rec
13
Rec yds
190
YPR
14.6
Rec TD
1

Scoring by Quarter

Sample · 7 games

Away · Kansas City Chiefs

Q1
40
Q2
34
Q3
20
Q4
43

Home · Denver Broncos

Q1
23
Q2
27
Q3
36
Q4
55

Latest News

Analytical Angles

Passing profile · KC

passing

Kansas City Chiefs: 59/100 league percentile in blended 2025–26 passing EPA entering Week 8.

Passing profile · DEN

passing

Denver Broncos: 50/100 league percentile in blended 2025–26 passing EPA entering Week 8.

Defensive profile · KC / DEN

efficiency

Defense EPA percentiles: Kansas City Chiefs 75/100; Denver Broncos 94/100. Lower EPA allowed rates are better.

Availability watch

availability

Availability checked Tuesday, October 27. 0 named items in game notes; final designations may change. The forecast applies no separate injury, trade or lineup adjustment.

Statistical context only. Picks Terminal publishes matchup analysis, not wagering advice.

Keys to the Game

  • Margin-aware Elo: Kansas City Chiefs 37.6%.
  • Rolling efficiency: Kansas City Chiefs 48.8%.
  • defense: Denver Broncos 94/100, Kansas City Chiefs 75/100.
  • passRush: Denver Broncos 97/100, Kansas City Chiefs 19/100.

What Could Flip It

  • offense: Kansas City Chiefs 72/100 versus Denver Broncos 44/100.
  • passing: Kansas City Chiefs 59/100 versus Denver Broncos 50/100.
  • Kansas City Chiefs have 6 completed 2026 games; Denver Broncos have 7. Prior-season form is blended into efficiency.
  • Final game status and starting lineups remain subject to change. No separate injury or trade adjustment is applied to the forecast.

Model Analysis

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos: the v0.3 ensemble places Denver Broncos at 59%, using a 70% margin-aware Elo and 30% rolling-efficiency blend with strictly out-of-fold calibration. Both sides have 6 and 7 completed current-season games, respectively, with 2025 prior form. This model does not adjust separately for injuries, trades or lineup changes. The forecast is a pregame statistical estimate, not certainty or a wagering recommendation.

Forecast

Model pick: Denver Broncos (59%). Signal: Lean; model agreement and data quality, not wagering value.

Sources & Methodology

Win probability: pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3 — a deterministic ensemble of a margin-aware Elo component and a regularized efficiency component built from pregame team differentials (EPA per play, dropback and rush EPA, success rate, explosive rate, sack performance, home field and rest). The blended probability is calibrated on training seasons only and validated by walk-forward backtest against completed results. All inputs come from public play-by-play and schedule data. No external market data of any kind is used anywhere on this page.