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Las Vegas Raiders at New York Jets

Compare Las Vegas Raiders vs New York Jets

Sunday Early · Sun, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ETLV @ NYJ
Las Vegas Raiders

Away

Las Vegas Raiders

3-4

New York Jets

Home

New York Jets

2-5

Model Win Probability

Las Vegas Raiders · Away

48%

Model
separation4%

New York Jets · Home

52%

Signal: Unrated· components disagree · 100% feature coverage
Elo component
50% LV
Efficiency component
48% LV
Feature coverage
100%
Data cutoff
2026-10-27T22:01:46.102759Z
Model
pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3

Signal strength describes model agreement and data quality, not certainty or wagering value.

Team Efficiency Comparison

12
19
Offense
25
16
Passing
3
28
Rushing
38
16
Defense
56
38
Pass Rush
31
3
Situational

0–100 league percentile across all 32 teams. Defensive ratings are inverted so a higher number always means a better unit.

Blended Team Metrics

LVMetricNYJ
-0.104EPA / Play-0.069
40.1%Success Rate42.2%
0.002Dropback EPA-0.033
-0.286Rush EPA-0.144
10.8%Explosive Play Rate10.6%
38.8%3rd Down Conversion34.8%
56.5%Red Zone TD Rate41.2%
0.024Def. EPA / Play Allowed0.085

Prior-season form is blended with current-season play and its weight decays as the current sample grows. Metrics without enough data are shown as “—”, never as zero.

Game Context

Venue
MetLife Stadium
Kickoff
Sun, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
Roof
outdoors
Surface
fieldturf
Away rest
7 days
Home rest
7 days
Site
New York Jets home game

Player Impact

Kirk Cousins

QB

2026 Weeks 1–7; 7 games

CMP/ATT
161/257
Pass yds
1877
Pass TD
16
INT
5
Y/A
7.3
Sacks
10

Ashton Jeanty

RB

2026 Weeks 1–7; 7 games

Carries
106
Rush yds
328
YPC
3.1
Rush TD
1
Targets
44
Rec
34

Mike Washington Jr.

RB

2026 Weeks 1–7; 7 games

Carries
40
Rush yds
195
YPC
4.9
Rush TD
1
Targets
6
Rec
3

Tre Tucker

WR

2026 Weeks 1–7; 7 games

Targets
47
Rec
29
Rec yds
474
YPR
16.3
Rec TD
4

Jalen Nailor

WR

2026 Weeks 1–7; 5 games

Targets
20
Rec
8
Rec yds
75
YPR
9.4
Rec TD
0

Injuries & Availability

Away · Las Vegas Raiders

Kirk CousinsQB

Starter

Coach said he remains Week 8 starter; Mendoza may play at some point

Checked Tue, Oct 27, 2026; final game designation pending unless IR/suspended/traded.

Scoring by Quarter

Sample · 7 games

Away · Las Vegas Raiders

Q1
34
Q2
48
Q3
26
Q4
75

Home · New York Jets

Q1
24
Q2
20
Q3
40
Q4
53

Latest News

Analytical Angles

Passing profile · LV

passing

Las Vegas Raiders: 25/100 league percentile in blended 2025–26 passing EPA entering Week 8.

Passing profile · NYJ

passing

New York Jets: 16/100 league percentile in blended 2025–26 passing EPA entering Week 8.

Defensive profile · LV / NYJ

efficiency

Defense EPA percentiles: Las Vegas Raiders 38/100; New York Jets 16/100. Lower EPA allowed rates are better.

Availability watch

availability

Availability checked Tuesday, October 27. 1 named items in game notes; final designations may change. The forecast applies no separate injury, trade or lineup adjustment.

Statistical context only. Picks Terminal publishes matchup analysis, not wagering advice.

Keys to the Game

  • Margin-aware Elo: Las Vegas Raiders 50.0%.
  • Rolling efficiency: Las Vegas Raiders 47.7%.
  • defense: Las Vegas Raiders 38/100, New York Jets 16/100.
  • passRush: Las Vegas Raiders 56/100, New York Jets 38/100.

What Could Flip It

  • offense: Las Vegas Raiders 12/100 versus New York Jets 19/100.
  • passing: Las Vegas Raiders 25/100 versus New York Jets 16/100.
  • Las Vegas Raiders have 7 completed 2026 games; New York Jets have 7. Prior-season form is blended into efficiency.
  • Final game status and starting lineups remain subject to change. No separate injury or trade adjustment is applied to the forecast.

Model Analysis

Las Vegas Raiders at New York Jets: the v0.3 ensemble places New York Jets at 52%, using a 70% margin-aware Elo and 30% rolling-efficiency blend with strictly out-of-fold calibration. Both sides have 7 and 7 completed current-season games, respectively, with 2025 prior form. This model does not adjust separately for injuries, trades or lineup changes. The forecast is a pregame statistical estimate, not certainty or a wagering recommendation.

Forecast

Model pick: New York Jets (52%). Signal: Unrated; model agreement and data quality, not wagering value.

Sources & Methodology

Win probability: pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3 — a deterministic ensemble of a margin-aware Elo component and a regularized efficiency component built from pregame team differentials (EPA per play, dropback and rush EPA, success rate, explosive rate, sack performance, home field and rest). The blended probability is calibrated on training seasons only and validated by walk-forward backtest against completed results. All inputs come from public play-by-play and schedule data. No external market data of any kind is used anywhere on this page.