Away
Los Angeles Chargers
0-6
Home
Los Angeles Rams
3-4
Model Win Probability
Los Angeles Chargers · Away
25%
separation50%
Los Angeles Rams · Home
75%
- Elo component
- 25% LAC
- Efficiency component
- 18% LAC
- Feature coverage
- 100%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-10-27T22:01:46.103158Z
- Model
- pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3
Signal strength describes model agreement and data quality, not certainty or wagering value.
Team Efficiency Comparison
0–100 league percentile across all 32 teams. Defensive ratings are inverted so a higher number always means a better unit.
Blended Team Metrics
| LAC | Metric | LAR |
|---|---|---|
| -0.102 | EPA / Play | 0.096 |
| 40.7% | Success Rate | 50.6% |
| -0.056 | Dropback EPA | 0.164 |
| -0.147 | Rush EPA | -0.025 |
| 10.6% | Explosive Play Rate | 13.8% |
| 42.6% | 3rd Down Conversion | 45.3% |
| 54.1% | Red Zone TD Rate | 66.3% |
| -0.063 | Def. EPA / Play Allowed | -0.056 |
Prior-season form is blended with current-season play and its weight decays as the current sample grows. Metrics without enough data are shown as “—”, never as zero.
Game Context
- Venue
- SoFi Stadium
- Kickoff
- Sun, Nov 1, 4:05 PM ET
- Roof
- dome
- Surface
- matrixturf
- Away rest
- 14 days
- Home rest
- 7 days
- Site
- Los Angeles Rams home game
Player Impact
Justin Herbert
QB2026 Weeks 1–7; 6 games; last played Week 6
- CMP/ATT
- 107/180
- Pass yds
- 1141
- Pass TD
- 5
- INT
- 8
- Y/A
- 6.3
- Sacks
- 21
Omarion Hampton
RB2026 Weeks 1–7; 6 games; last played Week 6
- Carries
- 80
- Rush yds
- 289
- YPC
- 3.6
- Rush TD
- 3
- Targets
- 10
- Rec
- 9
Keaton Mitchell
RB2026 Weeks 1–7; 6 games; last played Week 6
- Carries
- 35
- Rush yds
- 139
- YPC
- 4
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 15
- Rec
- 12
Tre Harris
WR2026 Weeks 1–7; 5 games; last played Week 5
- Targets
- 25
- Rec
- 15
- Rec yds
- 225
- YPR
- 15
- Rec TD
- 0
Quentin Johnston
WR2026 Weeks 1–7; 5 games; last played Week 6
- Targets
- 22
- Rec
- 8
- Rec yds
- 165
- YPR
- 20.6
- Rec TD
- 0
Away · Los Angeles Chargers
Justin Herbert
QB2026 Weeks 1–7; 6 games; last played Week 6
- CMP/ATT
- 107/180
- Pass yds
- 1141
- Pass TD
- 5
- INT
- 8
- Y/A
- 6.3
- Sacks
- 21
Omarion Hampton
RB2026 Weeks 1–7; 6 games; last played Week 6
- Carries
- 80
- Rush yds
- 289
- YPC
- 3.6
- Rush TD
- 3
- Targets
- 10
- Rec
- 9
Keaton Mitchell
RB2026 Weeks 1–7; 6 games; last played Week 6
- Carries
- 35
- Rush yds
- 139
- YPC
- 4
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 15
- Rec
- 12
Tre Harris
WR2026 Weeks 1–7; 5 games; last played Week 5
- Targets
- 25
- Rec
- 15
- Rec yds
- 225
- YPR
- 15
- Rec TD
- 0
Quentin Johnston
WR2026 Weeks 1–7; 5 games; last played Week 6
- Targets
- 22
- Rec
- 8
- Rec yds
- 165
- YPR
- 20.6
- Rec TD
- 0
Home · Los Angeles Rams
Matthew Stafford
QB2026 Weeks 1–7; 7 games
- CMP/ATT
- 187/278
- Pass yds
- 1989
- Pass TD
- 14
- INT
- 7
- Y/A
- 7.2
- Sacks
- 11
Kyren Williams
RB2026 Weeks 1–7; 7 games
- Carries
- 96
- Rush yds
- 492
- YPC
- 5.1
- Rush TD
- 5
- Targets
- 41
- Rec
- 32
Blake Corum
RB2026 Weeks 1–7; 7 games
- Carries
- 64
- Rush yds
- 316
- YPC
- 4.9
- Rush TD
- 2
- Targets
- 14
- Rec
- 10
Puka Nacua
WR2026 Weeks 1–7; 5 games
- Targets
- 62
- Rec
- 45
- Rec yds
- 485
- YPR
- 10.8
- Rec TD
- 2
Davante Adams
WR2026 Weeks 1–7; 6 games; last played Week 6
- Targets
- 49
- Rec
- 30
- Rec yds
- 480
- YPR
- 16
- Rec TD
- 4
Scoring by Quarter
Sample · 7 gamesAway · Los Angeles Chargers
Home · Los Angeles Rams
Latest News
- Chargers Injury Report: Ladd McConkey, Brenen Thompson DNP for 2nd consecutive practice
Yahoo Sports NFL · 1h ago · BAL / LAC
- Winners, losers of the NFL trade deadline: Chiefs get a WR, Vikings get a QB, Chargers stay quiet
ESPN NFL · 1d ago · KC / LAC / MIN
- NFL panic meter Week 8: Chargers, Colts have plenty of reasons to worry
Yahoo Sports NFL · 16d ago · IND / LAC
- Giants to sign RB Gregory Desrosiers off Chargers practice squad
NBC Sports ProFootballTalk · 17d ago · LAC / NYG
- Giants to sign RB Gregory Desrosiers off Chargers practice squad
Yahoo Sports NFL · 17d ago · LAC / NYG
Analytical Angles
Passing profile · LAC
passingLos Angeles Chargers: 12/100 league percentile in blended 2025–26 passing EPA entering Week 8.
Passing profile · LA
passingLos Angeles Rams: 78/100 league percentile in blended 2025–26 passing EPA entering Week 8.
Defensive profile · LAC / LA
efficiencyDefense EPA percentiles: Los Angeles Chargers 91/100; Los Angeles Rams 81/100. Lower EPA allowed rates are better.
Availability watch
availabilityAvailability checked Tuesday, October 27. 0 named items in game notes; final designations may change. The forecast applies no separate injury, trade or lineup adjustment.
Statistical context only. Picks Terminal publishes matchup analysis, not wagering advice.
Keys to the Game
- Margin-aware Elo: Los Angeles Chargers 24.8%.
- Rolling efficiency: Los Angeles Chargers 17.8%.
- defense: Los Angeles Chargers 91/100, Los Angeles Rams 81/100.
- passRush: Los Angeles Chargers 72/100, Los Angeles Rams 41/100.
What Could Flip It
- offense: Los Angeles Chargers 16/100 versus Los Angeles Rams 84/100.
- passing: Los Angeles Chargers 12/100 versus Los Angeles Rams 78/100.
- Los Angeles Chargers have 6 completed 2026 games; Los Angeles Rams have 7. Prior-season form is blended into efficiency.
- Final game status and starting lineups remain subject to change. No separate injury or trade adjustment is applied to the forecast.
Model Analysis
Los Angeles Chargers at Los Angeles Rams: the v0.3 ensemble places Los Angeles Rams at 75%, using a 70% margin-aware Elo and 30% rolling-efficiency blend with strictly out-of-fold calibration. Both sides have 6 and 7 completed current-season games, respectively, with 2025 prior form. This model does not adjust separately for injuries, trades or lineup changes. The forecast is a pregame statistical estimate, not certainty or a wagering recommendation.
Forecast
Model pick: Los Angeles Rams (75%). Signal: Moderate; model agreement and data quality, not wagering value.
Sources & Methodology
Win probability: pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3 — a deterministic ensemble of a margin-aware Elo component and a regularized efficiency component built from pregame team differentials (EPA per play, dropback and rush EPA, success rate, explosive rate, sack performance, home field and rest). The blended probability is calibrated on training seasons only and validated by walk-forward backtest against completed results. All inputs come from public play-by-play and schedule data. No external market data of any kind is used anywhere on this page.