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Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions

Compare Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions

Sunday Early · Sun, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ETMIN @ DET
Minnesota Vikings

Away

Minnesota Vikings

6-0

Detroit Lions

Home

Detroit Lions

4-2

Model Win Probability

Minnesota Vikings · Away

45%

Model
separation10%

Detroit Lions · Home

55%

Signal: Unrated· components disagree · 100% feature coverage
Elo component
52% MIN
Efficiency component
30% MIN
Feature coverage
100%
Data cutoff
2026-10-27T22:01:46.102851Z
Model
pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3

Signal strength describes model agreement and data quality, not certainty or wagering value.

Team Efficiency Comparison

9
88
Offense
9
94
Passing
31
44
Rushing
100
22
Defense
100
84
Pass Rush
12
81
Situational

0–100 league percentile across all 32 teams. Defensive ratings are inverted so a higher number always means a better unit.

Blended Team Metrics

MINMetricDET
-0.107EPA / Play0.104
40.0%Success Rate47.2%
-0.085Dropback EPA0.241
-0.143Rush EPA-0.098
11.4%Explosive Play Rate14.4%
35.7%3rd Down Conversion40.7%
53.0%Red Zone TD Rate66.2%
-0.152Def. EPA / Play Allowed0.074

Prior-season form is blended with current-season play and its weight decays as the current sample grows. Metrics without enough data are shown as “—”, never as zero.

Game Context

Venue
Ford Field
Kickoff
Sun, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
Roof
dome
Surface
fieldturf
Away rest
7 days
Home rest
7 days
Site
Detroit Lions home game

Player Impact

Kyler Murray

QB

2026 Weeks 1–7; 5 games

CMP/ATT
83/125
Pass yds
812
Pass TD
3
INT
2
Y/A
6.5
Sacks
12

Aaron Jones

RB

2026 Weeks 1–7; 6 games

Carries
105
Rush yds
436
YPC
4.2
Rush TD
2
Targets
19
Rec
13

Jordan Mason

RB

2026 Weeks 1–7; 2 games

Carries
30
Rush yds
127
YPC
4.2
Rush TD
1
Targets
2
Rec
0

Justin Jefferson

WR

2026 Weeks 1–7; 5 games

Targets
31
Rec
23
Rec yds
302
YPR
13.1
Rec TD
3

Jordan Addison

WR

2026 Weeks 1–7; 5 games

Targets
25
Rec
13
Rec yds
183
YPR
14.1
Rec TD
1

Injuries & Availability

Away · Minnesota Vikings

Aaron JonesRB

Day to day

Knee; Monday coach update

Checked Tue, Oct 27, 2026; final game designation pending unless IR/suspended/traded.

Scoring by Quarter

Sample · 6 games

Away · Minnesota Vikings

Q1
22
Q2
32
Q3
17
Q4
54

Home · Detroit Lions

Q1
17
Q2
60
Q3
52
Q4
48

Latest News

Analytical Angles

Passing profile · MIN

passing

Minnesota Vikings: 9/100 league percentile in blended 2025–26 passing EPA entering Week 8.

Passing profile · DET

passing

Detroit Lions: 94/100 league percentile in blended 2025–26 passing EPA entering Week 8.

Defensive profile · MIN / DET

efficiency

Defense EPA percentiles: Minnesota Vikings 100/100; Detroit Lions 22/100. Lower EPA allowed rates are better.

Availability watch

availability

Availability checked Tuesday, October 27. 1 named items in game notes; final designations may change. The forecast applies no separate injury, trade or lineup adjustment.

Statistical context only. Picks Terminal publishes matchup analysis, not wagering advice.

Keys to the Game

  • Margin-aware Elo: Minnesota Vikings 52.2%.
  • Rolling efficiency: Minnesota Vikings 29.6%.
  • defense: Minnesota Vikings 100/100, Detroit Lions 22/100.
  • passRush: Minnesota Vikings 100/100, Detroit Lions 84/100.

What Could Flip It

  • offense: Minnesota Vikings 9/100 versus Detroit Lions 88/100.
  • passing: Minnesota Vikings 9/100 versus Detroit Lions 94/100.
  • Minnesota Vikings have 6 completed 2026 games; Detroit Lions have 6. Prior-season form is blended into efficiency.
  • Final game status and starting lineups remain subject to change. No separate injury or trade adjustment is applied to the forecast.

Model Analysis

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions: the v0.3 ensemble places Detroit Lions at 55%, using a 70% margin-aware Elo and 30% rolling-efficiency blend with strictly out-of-fold calibration. Both sides have 6 and 6 completed current-season games, respectively, with 2025 prior form. This model does not adjust separately for injuries, trades or lineup changes. The forecast is a pregame statistical estimate, not certainty or a wagering recommendation.

Forecast

Model pick: Detroit Lions (55%). Signal: Unrated; model agreement and data quality, not wagering value.

Sources & Methodology

Win probability: pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3 — a deterministic ensemble of a margin-aware Elo component and a regularized efficiency component built from pregame team differentials (EPA per play, dropback and rush EPA, success rate, explosive rate, sack performance, home field and rest). The blended probability is calibrated on training seasons only and validated by walk-forward backtest against completed results. All inputs come from public play-by-play and schedule data. No external market data of any kind is used anywhere on this page.