Away
Philadelphia Eagles
2-5
Home
Washington Commanders
1-4-1
Model Win Probability
Philadelphia Eagles · Away
49%
separation2%
Washington Commanders · Home
51%
- Elo component
- 55% PHI
- Efficiency component
- 37% PHI
- Feature coverage
- 100%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-10-27T22:01:46.103542Z
- Model
- pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3
Signal strength describes model agreement and data quality, not certainty or wagering value.
Team Efficiency Comparison
0–100 league percentile across all 32 teams. Defensive ratings are inverted so a higher number always means a better unit.
Blended Team Metrics
| PHI | Metric | WAS |
|---|---|---|
| -0.025 | EPA / Play | 0.016 |
| 40.4% | Success Rate | 44.2% |
| 0.038 | Dropback EPA | 0.092 |
| -0.094 | Rush EPA | -0.082 |
| 11.4% | Explosive Play Rate | 11.6% |
| 37.8% | 3rd Down Conversion | 36.4% |
| 68.6% | Red Zone TD Rate | 63.5% |
| 0.017 | Def. EPA / Play Allowed | 0.117 |
Prior-season form is blended with current-season play and its weight decays as the current sample grows. Metrics without enough data are shown as “—”, never as zero.
Game Context
- Venue
- Northwest Stadium
- Kickoff
- Sun, Nov 1, 8:20 PM ET
- Roof
- outdoors
- Surface
- grass
- Away rest
- 6 days
- Home rest
- 13 days
- Site
- Washington Commanders home game
Player Impact
Tanner McKee
QB2026 Weeks 6–7; 2 games
- CMP/ATT
- 49/80
- Pass yds
- 426
- Pass TD
- 2
- INT
- 1
- Y/A
- 5.3
- Sacks
- 5
Saquon Barkley
RB2026 Weeks 1–7; 5 games
- Carries
- 43
- Rush yds
- 244
- YPC
- 5.7
- Rush TD
- 1
- Targets
- 9
- Rec
- 6
Dameon Pierce
RB2026 Weeks 5–7; 3 games
- Carries
- 37
- Rush yds
- 96
- YPC
- 2.6
- Rush TD
- 2
- Targets
- 11
- Rec
- 7
DeVonta Smith
WR2026 Weeks 1–7; 4 games; last played Week 6
- Targets
- 41
- Rec
- 26
- Rec yds
- 310
- YPR
- 11.9
- Rec TD
- 2
Makai Lemon
WR2026 Weeks 1–7; 7 games
- Targets
- 36
- Rec
- 25
- Rec yds
- 194
- YPR
- 7.8
- Rec TD
- 1
Away · Philadelphia Eagles
Tanner McKee
QB2026 Weeks 6–7; 2 games
- CMP/ATT
- 49/80
- Pass yds
- 426
- Pass TD
- 2
- INT
- 1
- Y/A
- 5.3
- Sacks
- 5
Saquon Barkley
RB2026 Weeks 1–7; 5 games
- Carries
- 43
- Rush yds
- 244
- YPC
- 5.7
- Rush TD
- 1
- Targets
- 9
- Rec
- 6
Dameon Pierce
RB2026 Weeks 5–7; 3 games
- Carries
- 37
- Rush yds
- 96
- YPC
- 2.6
- Rush TD
- 2
- Targets
- 11
- Rec
- 7
DeVonta Smith
WR2026 Weeks 1–7; 4 games; last played Week 6
- Targets
- 41
- Rec
- 26
- Rec yds
- 310
- YPR
- 11.9
- Rec TD
- 2
Makai Lemon
WR2026 Weeks 1–7; 7 games
- Targets
- 36
- Rec
- 25
- Rec yds
- 194
- YPR
- 7.8
- Rec TD
- 1
Home · Washington Commanders
Jayden Daniels
QB2026 Weeks 1–7; 4 games; last played Week 6
- CMP/ATT
- 75/116
- Pass yds
- 759
- Pass TD
- 5
- INT
- 0
- Y/A
- 6.5
- Sacks
- 10
Jacory Croskey-Merritt
RB2026 Weeks 1–7; 5 games; last played Week 5
- Carries
- 67
- Rush yds
- 239
- YPC
- 3.6
- Rush TD
- 2
- Targets
- 7
- Rec
- 5
Rachaad White
RB2026 Weeks 1–7; 5 games; last played Week 6
- Carries
- 36
- Rush yds
- 145
- YPC
- 4
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 15
- Rec
- 14
Stefon Diggs
WR2026 Weeks 1–7; 5 games; last played Week 6
- Targets
- 38
- Rec
- 24
- Rec yds
- 214
- YPR
- 8.9
- Rec TD
- 4
Terry McLaurin
WR2026 Weeks 1–7; 5 games; last played Week 6
- Targets
- 27
- Rec
- 15
- Rec yds
- 230
- YPR
- 15.3
- Rec TD
- 1
Injuries & Availability
Away · Philadelphia Eagles
Jalen HurtsQB
IROn injured reserve; expected to miss rest of season
Checked Tue, Oct 27, 2026; final game designation pending unless IR/suspended/traded.
Saquon BarkleyRB
MonitorBack injury Monday; playing time managed, later status pending
Checked Tue, Oct 27, 2026; final game designation pending unless IR/suspended/traded.
Scoring by Quarter
Sample · 7 gamesAway · Philadelphia Eagles
Home · Washington Commanders
Latest News
- Jayden Daniels' late TD keeps Commanders' NFC East hopes alive with win over Giants
ESPN NFL · 1h ago · NYG / WAS
- Veteran receiver Brown gets his wish, released by Eagles
ESPN NFL · 1h ago · PHI
- John Harbaugh: Cam Skattebo was not supposed to push on Jameis Winston sneak
NBC Sports ProFootballTalk · 2h ago · NYG / WAS
- Report: Eagles to release veteran OL Fred Johnson
NBC Sports ProFootballTalk · 4h ago · PHI
- Report: Eagles to release veteran OL Fred Johnson
Yahoo Sports NFL · 4h ago · PHI
Analytical Angles
Passing profile · PHI
passingPhiladelphia Eagles: 44/100 league percentile in blended 2025–26 passing EPA entering Week 8.
Passing profile · WAS
passingWashington Commanders: 56/100 league percentile in blended 2025–26 passing EPA entering Week 8.
Defensive profile · PHI / WAS
efficiencyDefense EPA percentiles: Philadelphia Eagles 44/100; Washington Commanders 6/100. Lower EPA allowed rates are better.
Availability watch
availabilityAvailability checked Tuesday, October 27. 2 named items in game notes; final designations may change. The forecast applies no separate injury, trade or lineup adjustment.
Statistical context only. Picks Terminal publishes matchup analysis, not wagering advice.
Keys to the Game
- Margin-aware Elo: Philadelphia Eagles 54.8%.
- Rolling efficiency: Philadelphia Eagles 37.1%.
- defense: Philadelphia Eagles 44/100, Washington Commanders 6/100.
- passRush: Washington Commanders 53/100, Philadelphia Eagles 22/100.
What Could Flip It
- offense: Philadelphia Eagles 34/100 versus Washington Commanders 59/100.
- passing: Philadelphia Eagles 44/100 versus Washington Commanders 56/100.
- Philadelphia Eagles have 7 completed 2026 games; Washington Commanders have 6. Prior-season form is blended into efficiency.
- Final game status and starting lineups remain subject to change. No separate injury or trade adjustment is applied to the forecast.
Model Analysis
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders: the v0.3 ensemble places Washington Commanders at 51%, using a 70% margin-aware Elo and 30% rolling-efficiency blend with strictly out-of-fold calibration. Both sides have 7 and 6 completed current-season games, respectively, with 2025 prior form. This model does not adjust separately for injuries, trades or lineup changes. The forecast is a pregame statistical estimate, not certainty or a wagering recommendation.
Forecast
Model pick: Washington Commanders (51%). Signal: Unrated; model agreement and data quality, not wagering value.
Sources & Methodology
Win probability: pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3 — a deterministic ensemble of a margin-aware Elo component and a regularized efficiency component built from pregame team differentials (EPA per play, dropback and rush EPA, success rate, explosive rate, sack performance, home field and rest). The blended probability is calibrated on training seasons only and validated by walk-forward backtest against completed results. All inputs come from public play-by-play and schedule data. No external market data of any kind is used anywhere on this page.