Away
Tennessee Titans
1-6
Home
Cincinnati Bengals
4-2
Model Win Probability
Tennessee Titans · Away
20%
separation60%
Cincinnati Bengals · Home
80%
- Elo component
- 16% TEN
- Efficiency component
- 20% TEN
- Feature coverage
- 100%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-10-27T22:01:46.103016Z
- Model
- pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3
Signal strength describes model agreement and data quality, not certainty or wagering value.
Team Efficiency Comparison
0–100 league percentile across all 32 teams. Defensive ratings are inverted so a higher number always means a better unit.
Blended Team Metrics
| TEN | Metric | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| -0.139 | EPA / Play | 0.052 |
| 38.9% | Success Rate | 47.4% |
| -0.137 | Dropback EPA | 0.091 |
| -0.133 | Rush EPA | -0.038 |
| 9.6% | Explosive Play Rate | 12.2% |
| 33.0% | 3rd Down Conversion | 48.2% |
| 53.3% | Red Zone TD Rate | 71.5% |
| 0.082 | Def. EPA / Play Allowed | 0.058 |
Prior-season form is blended with current-season play and its weight decays as the current sample grows. Metrics without enough data are shown as “—”, never as zero.
Game Context
- Venue
- Paycor Stadium
- Kickoff
- Sun, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
- Roof
- outdoors
- Surface
- fieldturf
- Away rest
- 7 days
- Home rest
- 7 days
- Site
- Cincinnati Bengals home game
Player Impact
Cam Ward
QB2026 Weeks 1–7; 7 games
- CMP/ATT
- 129/208
- Pass yds
- 1179
- Pass TD
- 4
- INT
- 5
- Y/A
- 5.7
- Sacks
- 11
Tony Pollard
RB2026 Weeks 1–7; 7 games
- Carries
- 112
- Rush yds
- 478
- YPC
- 4.3
- Rush TD
- 4
- Targets
- 16
- Rec
- 11
Tyjae Spears
RB2026 Weeks 1–7; 6 games; last played Week 6
- Carries
- 18
- Rush yds
- 66
- YPC
- 3.7
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 17
- Rec
- 15
Carnell Tate
WR2026 Weeks 1–7; 7 games
- Targets
- 51
- Rec
- 34
- Rec yds
- 413
- YPR
- 12.1
- Rec TD
- 1
Wan'Dale Robinson
WR2026 Weeks 1–7; 7 games
- Targets
- 43
- Rec
- 29
- Rec yds
- 205
- YPR
- 7.1
- Rec TD
- 2
Away · Tennessee Titans
Cam Ward
QB2026 Weeks 1–7; 7 games
- CMP/ATT
- 129/208
- Pass yds
- 1179
- Pass TD
- 4
- INT
- 5
- Y/A
- 5.7
- Sacks
- 11
Tony Pollard
RB2026 Weeks 1–7; 7 games
- Carries
- 112
- Rush yds
- 478
- YPC
- 4.3
- Rush TD
- 4
- Targets
- 16
- Rec
- 11
Tyjae Spears
RB2026 Weeks 1–7; 6 games; last played Week 6
- Carries
- 18
- Rush yds
- 66
- YPC
- 3.7
- Rush TD
- 0
- Targets
- 17
- Rec
- 15
Carnell Tate
WR2026 Weeks 1–7; 7 games
- Targets
- 51
- Rec
- 34
- Rec yds
- 413
- YPR
- 12.1
- Rec TD
- 1
Wan'Dale Robinson
WR2026 Weeks 1–7; 7 games
- Targets
- 43
- Rec
- 29
- Rec yds
- 205
- YPR
- 7.1
- Rec TD
- 2
Home · Cincinnati Bengals
Joe Burrow
QB2026 Weeks 1–7; 6 games
- CMP/ATT
- 157/219
- Pass yds
- 1653
- Pass TD
- 15
- INT
- 3
- Y/A
- 7.5
- Sacks
- 10
Chase Brown
RB2026 Weeks 1–7; 6 games
- Carries
- 82
- Rush yds
- 285
- YPC
- 3.5
- Rush TD
- 1
- Targets
- 33
- Rec
- 28
Samaje Perine
RB2026 Weeks 1–7; 6 games
- Carries
- 31
- Rush yds
- 126
- YPC
- 4.1
- Rush TD
- 1
- Targets
- 10
- Rec
- 7
Tee Higgins
WR2026 Weeks 1–7; 6 games
- Targets
- 50
- Rec
- 33
- Rec yds
- 571
- YPR
- 17.3
- Rec TD
- 2
Ja'Marr Chase
WR2026 Weeks 1–7; 6 games
- Targets
- 45
- Rec
- 32
- Rec yds
- 351
- YPR
- 11
- Rec TD
- 5
Injuries & Availability
Home · Cincinnati Bengals
Erick AllTE
IRPlaced on injured reserve after knee injury
Checked Tue, Oct 27, 2026; final game designation pending unless IR/suspended/traded.
Scoring by Quarter
Sample · 7 gamesAway · Tennessee Titans
Home · Cincinnati Bengals
Latest News
- Rookie WR Tate among multiple Titans starters ruled out vs. Jags
ESPN NFL · 1h ago · JAX / TEN
- Titans' Rivalries combination, Ravens' all-black threads top NFL Week 10 uniforms
ESPN NFL · 3h ago · BAL / TEN
- Steelers DL Derrick Harmon questionable for Bengals matchup
Yahoo Sports NFL · 4h ago · CIN / PIT
- Steelers reporter doesn’t expect Derrick Harmon to return against Bengals
Yahoo Sports NFL · 4h ago · CIN / PIT
- Robert Saleh says he and Liam Coen are good after "misunderstanding" last year
NBC Sports ProFootballTalk · 4h ago · JAX / SF / TEN
Analytical Angles
Passing profile · TEN
passingTennessee Titans: 3/100 league percentile in blended 2025–26 passing EPA entering Week 8.
Passing profile · CIN
passingCincinnati Bengals: 53/100 league percentile in blended 2025–26 passing EPA entering Week 8.
Defensive profile · TEN / CIN
efficiencyDefense EPA percentiles: Tennessee Titans 19/100; Cincinnati Bengals 28/100. Lower EPA allowed rates are better.
Availability watch
availabilityAvailability checked Tuesday, October 27. 1 named items in game notes; final designations may change. The forecast applies no separate injury, trade or lineup adjustment.
Statistical context only. Picks Terminal publishes matchup analysis, not wagering advice.
Keys to the Game
- Margin-aware Elo: Tennessee Titans 15.8%.
- Rolling efficiency: Tennessee Titans 20.0%.
- defense: Cincinnati Bengals 28/100, Tennessee Titans 19/100.
- passRush: Cincinnati Bengals 91/100, Tennessee Titans 66/100.
What Could Flip It
- offense: Tennessee Titans 3/100 versus Cincinnati Bengals 66/100.
- passing: Tennessee Titans 3/100 versus Cincinnati Bengals 53/100.
- Tennessee Titans have 7 completed 2026 games; Cincinnati Bengals have 6. Prior-season form is blended into efficiency.
- Final game status and starting lineups remain subject to change. No separate injury or trade adjustment is applied to the forecast.
Model Analysis
Tennessee Titans at Cincinnati Bengals: the v0.3 ensemble places Cincinnati Bengals at 80%, using a 70% margin-aware Elo and 30% rolling-efficiency blend with strictly out-of-fold calibration. Both sides have 7 and 6 completed current-season games, respectively, with 2025 prior form. This model does not adjust separately for injuries, trades or lineup changes. The forecast is a pregame statistical estimate, not certainty or a wagering recommendation.
Forecast
Model pick: Cincinnati Bengals (80%). Signal: Strong; model agreement and data quality, not wagering value.
Sources & Methodology
Win probability: pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3 — a deterministic ensemble of a margin-aware Elo component and a regularized efficiency component built from pregame team differentials (EPA per play, dropback and rush EPA, success rate, explosive rate, sack performance, home field and rest). The blended probability is calibrated on training seasons only and validated by walk-forward backtest against completed results. All inputs come from public play-by-play and schedule data. No external market data of any kind is used anywhere on this page.