← UFC 329: McGregor vs Holloway 2Gable StevesonElisha Ellison

Gable Steveson vs Elisha EllisonUFC 329: McGregor vs Holloway 2

Gable Steveson vs Elisha Ellison — Heavyweight — was scheduled for Saturday, July 11, 2026 at UFC 329: McGregor vs Holloway 2 in T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas. Official result not yet recorded. Picks Terminal covers the matchup with a win-probability estimate, a matchup breakdown and fight intel drawn from public sources.

slot.Prelim · HeavyweightID · FB45C736-09E3-43D4-8486-5E6723FBE541

Unranked · Heavyweight

Gable Steveson

4-0-0 · Wrestler

Rank UFC Heavyweight · Heavyweight

Elisha Ellison

"The Snack Panther"

5-2-0 · Striker

Win Probability Model · v4.2

Steveson

94%

Edge88%

Ellison

Skill Comparison

Striking

Wrestling

Cardio

—

Takedown Defense

Chin Durability

Physical Attributes

StevesonMetricEllison

5' 11"Height6'0"

74"Reach78"

26Age29

—StanceOrthodox

—Finish Rate100%

Career Records

StevesonMetricEllison

4Wins by KO/TKO0

0Wins by Submission0

4First-Round Finishes—

16.29Sig. Strikes / Min1.57

5.17Sig. Strikes Absorbed / Min15.13

0%Striking Accuracy33%

61%Striking Defense40%

0Knockdown Avg / 15 min—

0Takedowns / 15 min0

0%Takedown Accuracy0%

0%Takedown Defense0%

0Submissions / 15 min0

02:31Avg. Fight Time—

Strike Distribution

Steveson

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

61%

Body

29%

Leg

10%

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing68%

Clinch29%

Ground2%

Primary Position Standing

Fight Intel

Public Consensus

— Consensus data unavailable —

In-Depth Analysis

Model favors Steveson

Key Advantages

Elite Olympic-level wrestling pedigree (2020 Gold Medalist)
Significant defensive liability for Ellison (15.13 SApM absorbed)
Higher mental and physical floor under coach Greg Jackson

Potential Concerns

Steveson's lack of cage time (all 3 wins in round 1)
Ellison possesses a 2-inch reach advantage for heavy-handed counters

AI Analysis

An Olympic gold medalist wrestler faces a striker with historically poor defensive metrics.

Forecast

Gable Steveson should dominate this matchup immediately. Given Ellison's 15.13 absorption rate and tendency to get trapped in the first round, Steveson likely secures a double-leg against the fence within the first 60 seconds. Once on top, Steveson's size at 249+ lbs will be overwhelming for Ellison, who weighed in at 236 lbs recently. Expect a quick ground-and-pound stoppage or a heavy-pressure submission. Steveson via TKO, Round 1 (under 2.5 minutes).

Skill ratings, win probability, advantages, concerns, and forecast are AI-generated predictions based on scraped fighter profiles — not official UFC stats or guarantees.

Matchup Breakdown

This is a profound statistical mismatch. Elisha Ellison's UFC stats show a staggering 15.13 significant strikes absorbed per minute and a 40% striking defense, indicating a high probability of being hit or controlled. While Steveson has yet to log a takedown in the UFC (0.00 TD Avg), his freestyle background makes him the most credentialed wrestler in divisional history. Ellison has historically struggled with cardio and defensive positioning, as evidenced by his round 1 TKO loss to Brando Pericic where he was finished on the ground.

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