← UFC 332: Silva vs WangAlden CoriaImanol Rodriguez

Alden Coria vs Imanol RodriguezUFC 332: Silva vs Wang

Alden Coria vs Imanol Rodriguez — Flyweight — is scheduled for Saturday, October 3, 2026 at UFC 332: Silva vs Wang in Delta Center, Salt Lake City. Picks Terminal covers the matchup with a win-probability estimate, a matchup breakdown and fight intel drawn from public sources.

Prelims · FlyweightID · 7C880DAA-FA02-49FF-885C-75726E701A81

Unranked · Flyweight

Alden Coria

"Cobra"

13-3-0 · Freestyle

Unranked · Flyweight

Imanol Rodriguez

"Himan"

7-0-0 · Freestyle

Win Probability Model · v4.2

Coria

42%

Edge16%

Rodriguez

58%

Skill Comparison

74
80
Striking
57
57
Wrestling
63
63
Cardio
56
—
Takedown Defense
74
74
Chin Durability

Physical Attributes

CoriaMetricRodriguez
5' 8"Height5' 4"
67"Reach64.5"
28Age26
—Stance—
69%Finish Rate100%

Career Records

CoriaMetricRodriguez
5Wins by KO/TKO6
4Wins by Submission1
3First-Round Finishes4
4.05Sig. Strikes / Min5.71
2.21Sig. Strikes Absorbed / Min2.42
44%Striking Accuracy—
70%Striking Defense58%
0Knockdown Avg / 15 min5.19
1.75Takedowns / 15 min—
50%Takedown Accuracy—
56%Takedown Defense—
0Submissions / 15 min—

Strike Distribution

Coria

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

73%

Body

15%

Leg

12%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Coria

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 85%Standing85%
Clinch — 4%Clinch4%
Ground — 10%Ground10%

Primary Position Standing

Rodriguez

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

79%

Body

14%

Leg

8%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Rodriguez

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 59%Standing59%
Clinch — 11%Clinch11%
Ground — 30%Ground30%

Primary Position Standing

Fight Intel

Public Consensus

— Consensus data unavailable —

Latest News

— No recent news —

Coria

Strengths

  • SApM edge (2.21 vs 2.42)

Weaknesses

  • Potentially incomplete UFC sample
  • Can be punished when the preferred phase breaks down

Opportunities

  • Establish the preferred phase
  • Build repeatable offense over time

Threats

  • Imanol Rodriguez changing the fight phase
  • High-impact momentum swing
Rodriguez

Strengths

  • SLpM edge (5.71 vs 4.05)

Weaknesses

  • Potentially incomplete UFC sample
  • Can be punished when the preferred phase breaks down

Opportunities

  • Establish the preferred phase
  • Build repeatable offense over time

Threats

  • Alden Coria changing the fight phase
  • High-impact momentum swing

In-Depth Analysis

Model favors Rodriguez
Key Advantages
  • SLpM edge (5.71 vs 4.05)
Potential Concerns
  • Limited samples reduce certainty where official UFC rates are unavailable.
  • Alden Coria can outperform the model by forcing a different fight phase.
  • One high-impact exchange can override the statistical baseline.
AI Analysis

Rodriguez's speed, power and more efficient early offense produce the stronger projection; Coria's wrestling and measured pace remain credible equalizers.

Forecast

Expect Imanol Rodriguez and Alden Coria to test the matchup's primary phase early. Imanol Rodriguez is projected to create the more sustainable offense, but the opposing route remains live wherever UFC sample size is thin.

Skill ratings, win probability, advantages, concerns, and forecast are AI-generated predictions based on scraped fighter profiles — not official UFC stats or guarantees.

Matchup Breakdown

Rodriguez should press his speed advantage and force exchanges before Coria can settle into control sequences. Coria needs to slow the fight with clinches and takedowns, extending Rodriguez beyond the short UFC sample on which much of the striking edge rests. The estimate is an analyst-model forecast built from current UFC data and sample quality, not a market probability.

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