← UFC 332: Silva vs WangAlexander HernandezRafael Dos Anjos

Alexander Hernandez vs Rafael Dos AnjosUFC 332: Silva vs Wang

Alexander Hernandez vs Rafael Dos Anjos — Lightweight — is scheduled for Saturday, October 3, 2026 at UFC 332: Silva vs Wang in Delta Center, Salt Lake City. Picks Terminal covers the matchup with a win-probability estimate, a matchup breakdown and fight intel drawn from public sources.

Prelims · LightweightID · 88D9C4B5-C542-4603-A9E0-41C4B3F9038F
Alexander Hernandez

Unranked · Lightweight

Alexander Hernandez

"El Gran Chango"

18-9-0 · MMA

Rafael Dos Anjos

Unranked · Lightweight

Rafael Dos Anjos

32-17-0 · Grappler

Win Probability Model · v4.2

Hernandez

55%

Edge10%

Anjos

45%

Skill Comparison

72
70
Striking
59
57
Wrestling
63
63
Cardio
69
55
Takedown Defense
70
72
Chin Durability

Physical Attributes

HernandezMetricAnjos
5' 9"Height5' 8"
72"Reach70"
33Age41
—Stance—
56%Finish Rate50%

Career Records

HernandezMetricAnjos
8Wins by KO/TKO5
2Wins by Submission11
8First-Round Finishes—
4.23Sig. Strikes / Min3.48
4.45Sig. Strikes Absorbed / Min3.23
60%Striking Defense60%
0.48Knockdown Avg / 15 min0.20
69%Takedown Defense55%

Strike Distribution

Hernandez

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

56%

Body

31%

Leg

13%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Hernandez

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 85%Standing85%
Clinch — 8%Clinch8%
Ground — 7%Ground7%

Primary Position Standing

Anjos

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

58%

Body

24%

Leg

18%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Anjos

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 67%Standing67%
Clinch — 18%Clinch18%
Ground — 15%Ground15%

Primary Position Standing

Fight Intel

Public Consensus

— Consensus data unavailable —

Latest News

— No recent news —

Hernandez

Strengths

  • SLpM edge (4.23 vs 3.48)
  • TDD edge (69 vs 55)

Weaknesses

  • Potentially incomplete UFC sample
  • Can be punished when the preferred phase breaks down

Opportunities

  • Establish the preferred phase
  • Build repeatable offense over time

Threats

  • Rafael Dos Anjos changing the fight phase
  • High-impact momentum swing
Anjos

Strengths

  • SApM edge (3.23 vs 4.45)

Weaknesses

  • Potentially incomplete UFC sample
  • Can be punished when the preferred phase breaks down

Opportunities

  • Establish the preferred phase
  • Build repeatable offense over time

Threats

  • Alexander Hernandez changing the fight phase
  • High-impact momentum swing

In-Depth Analysis

Model favors Hernandez
Key Advantages
  • SLpM edge (4.23 vs 3.48)
  • TDD edge (69 vs 55)
Potential Concerns
  • Limited samples reduce certainty where official UFC rates are unavailable.
  • Rafael Dos Anjos can outperform the model by forcing a different fight phase.
  • One high-impact exchange can override the statistical baseline.
AI Analysis

Hernandez's youth, speed and current pace create a slight edge; Dos Anjos' clinch craft and grappling experience offer a clear route to overturn it.

Forecast

Expect Rafael Dos Anjos and Alexander Hernandez to test the matchup's primary phase early. Alexander Hernandez is projected to create the more sustainable offense, but the opposing route remains live wherever UFC sample size is thin.

Skill ratings, win probability, advantages, concerns, and forecast are AI-generated predictions based on scraped fighter profiles — not official UFC stats or guarantees.

Matchup Breakdown

Hernandez should maintain distance, attack in short bursts and avoid being held along the fence. Dos Anjos can change the projection by forcing prolonged clinch exchanges, taxing Hernandez's gas tank and converting control into positional offense. The estimate is an analyst-model forecast built from current UFC data and sample quality, not a market probability.

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