← UFC 332: Silva vs WangAteba GautierRoman Kopylov

Ateba Gautier vs Roman KopylovUFC 332: Silva vs Wang

Ateba Gautier vs Roman Kopylov — Middleweight — is scheduled for Saturday, October 3, 2026 at UFC 332: Silva vs Wang in Delta Center, Salt Lake City. Picks Terminal covers the matchup with a win-probability estimate, a matchup breakdown and fight intel drawn from public sources.

Main Card · MiddleweightID · 5077BAD7-5924-4B87-A6DA-328BEF698F3D

Unranked · Middleweight

Ateba Gautier

"The Storm"

11-1-0 · Striker

Unranked · Middleweight

Roman Kopylov

15-5-0 · MMA

Win Probability Model · v4.2

Gautier

54%

Edge8%

Kopylov

46%

Skill Comparison

71
72
Striking
64
63
Wrestling
63
63
Cardio
94
89
Takedown Defense
73
68
Chin Durability

Physical Attributes

GautierMetricKopylov
6' 4"Height6' 0"
81"Reach75"
24Age34
—Stance—
—Finish Rate—

Career Records

GautierMetricKopylov
9Wins by KO/TKO12
7First-Round Finishes1
4.32Sig. Strikes / Min4.54
2.60Sig. Strikes Absorbed / Min5.08
54%Striking Defense53%
2.87Knockdown Avg / 15 min0.92
94%Takedown Defense89%

Strike Distribution

Gautier

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

78%

Body

19%

Leg

3%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Gautier

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 66%Standing66%
Clinch — 15%Clinch15%
Ground — 20%Ground20%

Primary Position Standing

Kopylov

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

66%

Body

19%

Leg

15%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Kopylov

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 92%Standing92%
Clinch — 4%Clinch4%
Ground — 4%Ground4%

Primary Position Standing

Fight Intel

Public Consensus

— Consensus data unavailable —

Latest News

— No recent news —

Gautier

Strengths

  • SApM edge (2.6 vs 5.08)
  • TDD edge (94 vs 89)

Weaknesses

  • Potentially incomplete UFC sample
  • Can be punished when the preferred phase breaks down

Opportunities

  • Establish the preferred phase
  • Build repeatable offense over time

Threats

  • Roman Kopylov changing the fight phase
  • High-impact momentum swing
Kopylov

Strengths

  • SLpM edge (4.54 vs 4.32)

Weaknesses

  • Potentially incomplete UFC sample
  • Can be punished when the preferred phase breaks down

Opportunities

  • Establish the preferred phase
  • Build repeatable offense over time

Threats

  • Ateba Gautier changing the fight phase
  • High-impact momentum swing

In-Depth Analysis

Model favors Gautier
Key Advantages
  • SApM edge (2.6 vs 5.08)
  • TDD edge (94 vs 89)
Potential Concerns
  • Limited samples reduce certainty where official UFC rates are unavailable.
  • Roman Kopylov can outperform the model by forcing a different fight phase.
  • One high-impact exchange can override the statistical baseline.
AI Analysis

Gautier's physicality and finishing pressure create a modest edge; Kopylov's distance craft and kick selection can take over if he survives the early intensity.

Forecast

Expect Ateba Gautier and Roman Kopylov to test the matchup's primary phase early. Ateba Gautier is projected to create the more sustainable offense, but the opposing route remains live wherever UFC sample size is thin.

Skill ratings, win probability, advantages, concerns, and forecast are AI-generated predictions based on scraped fighter profiles — not official UFC stats or guarantees.

Matchup Breakdown

Gautier can compress space and force Kopylov into defensive exchanges before the Russian establishes kicking range. Kopylov's counter-case is built on lateral movement, body attacks and making Gautier reset repeatedly as the fight extends. The estimate is an analyst-model forecast built from current UFC data and sample quality, not a market probability.

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