← UFC 332: Silva vs WangEsteban RibovicsKing Green

Esteban Ribovics vs King GreenUFC 332: Silva vs Wang

Esteban Ribovics vs King Green — Lightweight — was scheduled for Saturday, October 3, 2026 at UFC 332: Silva vs Wang in Delta Center, Salt Lake City. Official result not yet recorded. Picks Terminal covers the matchup with a win-probability estimate, a matchup breakdown and fight intel drawn from public sources.

Main Card · LightweightID · EA71EADD-4677-42E5-9777-2AE31B1D3C81
Esteban Ribovics

Unranked · Lightweight

Esteban Ribovics

"El Gringo"

16-3-0 · Striker

King Green

Unranked · Lightweight

King Green

"King"

36-17-1 · MMA

Win Probability Model · v4.2

Ribovics

52%

Edge4%

Green

48%

Skill Comparison

83
80
Striking
59
60
Wrestling
63
63
Cardio
66
72
Takedown Defense
67
71
Chin Durability

Physical Attributes

RibovicsMetricGreen
5' 10"Height5' 10"
69"Reach71"
30Age39
—Stance—
81%Finish Rate64%

Career Records

RibovicsMetricGreen
8Wins by KO/TKO13
5Wins by Submission10
7First-Round Finishes13
7.43Sig. Strikes / Min6.49
5.74Sig. Strikes Absorbed / Min3.63
43%Striking Accuracy53%
54%Striking Defense62%
0.48Knockdown Avg / 15 min0.35
0.35Takedowns / 15 min1.33
0%Takedown Accuracy43%
66%Takedown Defense72%
0.17Submissions / 15 min0.30
10:48Avg. Fight Time—

Strike Distribution

Ribovics

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

74%

Body

16%

Leg

10%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Ribovics

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 92%Standing92%
Clinch — 4%Clinch4%
Ground — 4%Ground4%

Primary Position Standing

Green

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

58%

Body

25%

Leg

16%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Green

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 80%Standing80%
Clinch — 10%Clinch10%
Ground — 10%Ground10%

Primary Position Standing

Fight Intel

Public Consensus

— Consensus data unavailable —

Latest News

Ribovics

Strengths

  • SLpM edge (7.43 vs 6.49)

Weaknesses

  • Potentially incomplete UFC sample
  • Can be punished when the preferred phase breaks down

Opportunities

  • Establish the preferred phase
  • Build repeatable offense over time

Threats

  • King Green changing the fight phase
  • High-impact momentum swing
Green

Strengths

  • SApM edge (3.63 vs 5.74)
  • TDD edge (72 vs 66)

Weaknesses

  • Potentially incomplete UFC sample
  • Can be punished when the preferred phase breaks down

Opportunities

  • Establish the preferred phase
  • Build repeatable offense over time

Threats

  • Esteban Ribovics changing the fight phase
  • High-impact momentum swing

In-Depth Analysis

Model favors Ribovics
Key Advantages
  • SLpM edge (7.43 vs 6.49)
Potential Concerns
  • Ribovics weighed 156.5 lb, 0.5 lb above the non-title lightweight limit; the bout proceeds at catchweight with a 20% purse forfeiture.
  • Green completed a difficult cut and made weight at 155.5 lb, so fight-week condition is uncertain on both sides.
  • One high-impact exchange can override the narrow statistical baseline.
AI Analysis

Ribovics' pressure and pace retain a narrow lean, while Green's timing and defense can punish predictable entries; Ribovics' 0.5-lb miss adds uncertainty but does not justify changing the 48/52 forecast.

Forecast

Ribovics is still projected to create slightly more sustainable offense, but Green's timing and the added fight-week conditioning uncertainty keep this close.

Skill ratings, win probability, advantages, concerns, and forecast are AI-generated predictions based on scraped fighter profiles — not official UFC stats or guarantees.

Matchup Breakdown

Ribovics benefits from sustained exchanges and body work that prevent Green from controlling tempo. Green's route is to make the fight intermittent, draw overextensions and score with cleaner counters. Ribovics' small miss and Green's demanding cut increase variance in opposite directions, so the pre-weigh-in 48/52 split remains the most defensible estimate rather than overreacting to 0.5 lb.

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