Aaron Pico vs Losene KeitaUFC 333: Volkanovski vs Evloev

Aaron Pico vs Losene Keita — Featherweight — is scheduled for Saturday, October 24, 2026 at UFC 333: Volkanovski vs Evloev in Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi. Picks Terminal covers the matchup with a win-probability estimate, a matchup breakdown and fight intel drawn from public sources.

Main Card · FeatherweightID · 6A9D1DA1-E846-4036-B524-3695F153B72E
Aaron Pico

Rank #11 · Featherweight

Aaron Pico

14-5-0 · Wrestling / Boxing

Unranked · Featherweight

Losene Keita

"Black Panther"

17-2-0 · Kickboxing

Win Probability Model · v4.2

Pico

55%

Edge10%

Keita

45%

Skill Comparison

90
90
Striking
94
72
Wrestling
80
82
Cardio
72
93
Takedown Defense
77
82
Chin Durability

Physical Attributes

PicoMetricKeita
5' 8"Height5' 9"
70.5"Reach71.5"
29Age28
—Stance—
79%Finish Rate65%

Career Records

PicoMetricKeita
9Wins by KO/TKO11
2Wins by Submission0
7First-Round Finishes6
6.16Sig. Strikes / Min3.91
3.11Sig. Strikes Absorbed / Min3.97
54%Striking Accuracy47%
45%Striking Defense65%
0Knockdown Avg / 15 min1.68
6.54Takedowns / 15 min0
12%Takedown Accuracy—
—Takedown Defense100%
0Submissions / 15 min0
09:11Avg. Fight Time08:57

Strike Distribution

Pico

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

76%

Body

14%

Leg

10%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Pico

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 86%Standing86%
Clinch — 8%Clinch8%
Ground — 6%Ground6%

Primary Position Standing

Keita

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

74%

Body

21%

Leg

4%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Keita

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 89%Standing89%
Clinch — 0%Clinch0%
Ground — 11%Ground11%

Primary Position Standing

Fight Intel

Public Consensus

— Consensus data unavailable —

Latest News

Pico

Strengths

  • Pico averages 6.54 takedowns per 15 minutes
  • Nine knockout wins and a 6.16 SLpM rate
  • His wrestling can bypass Keita's preferred kickboxing range

Weaknesses

  • Pico has been stopped in volatile exchanges
  • Keita's UFC rates come from only 70 landed significant strikes

Opportunities

  • Establish the preferred phase early
  • Turn measurable advantages into repeatable scoring sequences

Threats

  • Losene Keita changing the fight phase
  • Keita owns an 11-knockout professional record
Keita

Strengths

  • Pico has been stopped in volatile exchanges
  • Keita's UFC rates come from only 70 landed significant strikes
  • Keita owns an 11-knockout professional record

Weaknesses

  • Pico averages 6.54 takedowns per 15 minutes
  • Nine knockout wins and a 6.16 SLpM rate

Opportunities

  • Force Aaron Pico away from the projected win condition
  • Exploit transitions after the first defensive layer

Threats

  • Pico averages 6.54 takedowns per 15 minutes
  • His wrestling can bypass Keita's preferred kickboxing range

In-Depth Analysis

Model favors Pico
Key Advantages
  • Pico averages 6.54 takedowns per 15 minutes
  • Nine knockout wins and a 6.16 SLpM rate
  • His wrestling can bypass Keita's preferred kickboxing range
Potential Concerns
  • Pico has been stopped in volatile exchanges
  • Keita's UFC rates come from only 70 landed significant strikes
  • Keita owns an 11-knockout professional record
AI Analysis

Pico's elite wrestling and higher-volume power game create the stronger multi-phase route against replacement opponent Keita's speed and counter striking.

Forecast

Pico is projected to mix power combinations with takedowns and control, while Keita's counter speed remains a live finishing threat.

Skill ratings, win probability, advantages, concerns, and forecast are AI-generated predictions based on scraped fighter profiles — not official UFC stats or guarantees.

Matchup Breakdown

Pico should use his boxing to force high guards, then connect level changes before Keita settles into open-space counters. Keita's speed and defensive reactions can punish naked entries, but his limited UFC sample leaves uncertainty about extended defensive wrestling. Pico's ability to dictate phase earns the lean.

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