← UFC 333: Volkanovski vs EvloevAbubakar VagaevJacob Malkoun

Abubakar Vagaev vs Jacob MalkounUFC 333: Volkanovski vs Evloev

Abubakar Vagaev vs Jacob Malkoun — Middleweight — is scheduled for Saturday, October 24, 2026 at UFC 333: Volkanovski vs Evloev in Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi. Picks Terminal covers the matchup with a win-probability estimate, a matchup breakdown and fight intel drawn from public sources.

Prelims · MiddleweightID · 31FFAA60-E1CD-444B-9118-BAA604917BD5

Unranked · Middleweight

Abubakar Vagaev

25-4-0 · MMA

Unranked · Middleweight

Jacob Malkoun

"Mamba"

10-3-0 · Wrestling

Win Probability Model · v4.2

Vagaev

46%

Edge8%

Malkoun

54%

Skill Comparison

73
82
Striking
87
91
Wrestling
79
88
Cardio
82
78
Takedown Defense
81
86
Chin Durability

Physical Attributes

VagaevMetricMalkoun
6' 0"Height5' 9"
—Reach73"
33Age31
—Stance—
20%Finish Rate30%

Career Records

VagaevMetricMalkoun
4Wins by KO/TKO3
1Wins by Submission0
4First-Round Finishes1
1.80Sig. Strikes / Min4.23
2.20Sig. Strikes Absorbed / Min2.33
39%Striking Accuracy57%
60%Striking Defense55%
0Knockdown Avg / 15 min0.15
4Takedowns / 15 min5.39
—Takedown Accuracy17%
71%Takedown Defense56%
0Submissions / 15 min0.75
15:00Avg. Fight Time11:08

Strike Distribution

Vagaev

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

59%

Body

26%

Leg

15%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Vagaev

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 67%Standing67%
Clinch — 26%Clinch26%
Ground — 7%Ground7%

Primary Position Standing

Malkoun

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

92%

Body

7%

Leg

1%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Malkoun

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 69%Standing69%
Clinch — 4%Clinch4%
Ground — 27%Ground27%

Primary Position Standing

Fight Intel

Public Consensus

— Consensus data unavailable —

Latest News

— No recent news —

Vagaev

Strengths

  • Vagaev owns 25 professional wins
  • His limited UFC sample shows four takedowns per 15 minutes
  • A 71% takedown-defense mark supports competitive clinch phases

Weaknesses

  • Malkoun averages 5.39 takedowns per 15 minutes
  • Malkoun lands at 57% accuracy and absorbs only 2.33 significant strikes per minute

Opportunities

  • Establish the preferred phase early
  • Turn measurable advantages into repeatable scoring sequences

Threats

  • Jacob Malkoun changing the fight phase
  • Vagaev's UFC sample contains only 27 landed significant strikes
Malkoun

Strengths

  • Malkoun averages 5.39 takedowns per 15 minutes
  • Malkoun lands at 57% accuracy and absorbs only 2.33 significant strikes per minute
  • Vagaev's UFC sample contains only 27 landed significant strikes

Weaknesses

  • Vagaev owns 25 professional wins
  • His limited UFC sample shows four takedowns per 15 minutes

Opportunities

  • Force Abubakar Vagaev away from the projected win condition
  • Exploit transitions after the first defensive layer

Threats

  • Vagaev owns 25 professional wins
  • A 71% takedown-defense mark supports competitive clinch phases

In-Depth Analysis

Model favors Malkoun
Key Advantages
  • Vagaev owns 25 professional wins
  • His limited UFC sample shows four takedowns per 15 minutes
  • A 71% takedown-defense mark supports competitive clinch phases
Potential Concerns
  • Malkoun averages 5.39 takedowns per 15 minutes
  • Malkoun lands at 57% accuracy and absorbs only 2.33 significant strikes per minute
  • Vagaev's UFC sample contains only 27 landed significant strikes
AI Analysis

Malkoun's proven UFC wrestling volume, striking efficiency and longer sample narrowly offset Vagaev's experience and finishing pedigree.

Forecast

Malkoun is projected to accumulate control and efficient short offense, with Vagaev's veteran timing creating the principal counter-route.

Skill ratings, win probability, advantages, concerns, and forecast are AI-generated predictions based on scraped fighter profiles — not official UFC stats or guarantees.

Matchup Breakdown

Vagaev needs to deny extended fence wrestling and make Malkoun pay during entries. Malkoun's repeatable takedown volume and established control sample give him the steadier minute-winning process, while Vagaev's broader professional experience keeps the matchup competitive.

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