← UFC 333: Volkanovski vs EvloevAsaf ChopurovColby Thicknesse

Asaf Chopurov vs Colby ThicknesseUFC 333: Volkanovski vs Evloev

Asaf Chopurov vs Colby Thicknesse — Bantamweight — is scheduled for Saturday, October 24, 2026 at UFC 333: Volkanovski vs Evloev in Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi. Picks Terminal covers the matchup with a win-probability estimate, a matchup breakdown and fight intel drawn from public sources.

Prelims · BantamweightID · 65E90808-C4A3-482E-BC65-509783CD68A2

Unranked · Bantamweight

Asaf Chopurov

"Honey Badger"

11-0-0 · Sambo

Unranked · Bantamweight

Colby Thicknesse

"Slickness"

9-1-0 · MMA

Win Probability Model · v4.2

Chopurov

60%

Edge20%

Thicknesse

40%

Skill Comparison

84

78

Striking

91

84

Wrestling

84

83

Cardio

—

58

Takedown Defense

84

82

Chin Durability

Physical Attributes

ChopurovMetricThicknesse

5' 7"Height5' 7"

—Reach69"

24Age27

—Stance—

91%Finish Rate44%

Career Records

ChopurovMetricThicknesse

5Wins by KO/TKO2

5Wins by Submission2

—First-Round Finishes4

—Sig. Strikes / Min3.24

—Sig. Strikes Absorbed / Min2.93

—Striking Accuracy41%

—Striking Defense54%

—Knockdown Avg / 15 min0

—Takedowns / 15 min0.67

—Takedown Defense33%

—Submissions / 15 min1.67

00:00Avg. Fight Time15:00

Strike Distribution

Thicknesse

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

55%

Body

28%

Leg

16%

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 64%

Standing64%

Clinch — 7%

Clinch7%

Ground — 29%

Ground29%

Primary Position Standing

Fight Intel

Public Consensus

— Consensus data unavailable —

Latest News

Chopurov

Strengths

Chopurov is 11-0 with ten finishes
Chopurov enters as a decorated 34-1 amateur and regional champion
No UFC rates or strike distributions exist for Chopurov

Weaknesses

Thicknesse has an established UFC sample and a 9-1 record
He averages 1.67 submissions per 15 minutes

Opportunities

Force Colby Thicknesse away from the projected win condition
Exploit transitions after the first defensive layer

Threats

Thicknesse has an established UFC sample and a 9-1 record
His prior Octagon rounds provide the clearer pace baseline

Thicknesse

Strengths

Thicknesse has an established UFC sample and a 9-1 record
He averages 1.67 submissions per 15 minutes
His prior Octagon rounds provide the clearer pace baseline

Weaknesses

Chopurov is 11-0 with ten finishes
Chopurov enters as a decorated 34-1 amateur and regional champion

Opportunities

Establish the preferred phase early
Turn measurable advantages into repeatable scoring sequences

Threats

Asaf Chopurov changing the fight phase
No UFC rates or strike distributions exist for Chopurov

In-Depth Analysis

Model favors Chopurov

Key Advantages

Chopurov is 11-0 with ten finishes
Chopurov enters as a decorated 34-1 amateur and regional champion
No UFC rates or strike distributions exist for Chopurov

Potential Concerns

Thicknesse has an established UFC sample and a 9-1 record
He averages 1.67 submissions per 15 minutes
His prior Octagon rounds provide the clearer pace baseline

AI Analysis

Chopurov's 11-0 record, 10 professional finishes and extensive amateur base outweigh Thicknesse's UFC experience, but the debutant has no UFC statistical sample.

Forecast

Chopurov is projected to impose the more decisive grappling and finishing threats, with Thicknesse's experience and pace offering the clearest upset route.

Skill ratings, win probability, advantages, concerns, and forecast are AI-generated predictions based on scraped fighter profiles — not official UFC stats or guarantees.

Matchup Breakdown

Thicknesse should extend the fight, make Chopurov work through layered grappling and test whether the debutant's finishing pace holds at UFC level. Chopurov brings the stronger pre-UFC résumé and dangerous offense in every phase, but the absence of UFC data keeps confidence low.

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