Azamat Murzakanov vs Dominick ReyesUFC 333: Volkanovski vs Evloev

Azamat Murzakanov vs Dominick Reyes — Light Heavyweight — is scheduled for Saturday, October 24, 2026 at UFC 333: Volkanovski vs Evloev in Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi. Picks Terminal covers the matchup with a win-probability estimate, a matchup breakdown and fight intel drawn from public sources.

Prelims · Light HeavyweightID · EA5D3ADF-29BF-4E8C-A86D-25C54BC16185
Azamat Murzakanov

Rank #7 · Light Heavyweight

Azamat Murzakanov

"Professional"

16-1-0 · Boxing

Dominick Reyes

Rank #8 · Light Heavyweight

Dominick Reyes

"The Devastator"

16-5-0 · Kickboxing

Win Probability Model · v4.2

Murzakanov

54%

Edge8%

Reyes

46%

Skill Comparison

89
88
Striking
76
68
Wrestling
82
84
Cardio
92
89
Takedown Defense
84
79
Chin Durability

Physical Attributes

MurzakanovMetricReyes
5' 10"Height6' 4"
71.5"Reach77"
37Age36
—Stance—
81%Finish Rate75%

Career Records

MurzakanovMetricReyes
12Wins by KO/TKO10
1Wins by Submission2
10First-Round Finishes11
4.40Sig. Strikes / Min4.99
3.20Sig. Strikes Absorbed / Min3.40
56%Striking Accuracy54%
56%Striking Defense50%
1.58Knockdown Avg / 15 min0.89
0.68Takedowns / 15 min0.25
7%Takedown Accuracy14%
89%Takedown Defense83%
0.23Submissions / 15 min0.25
08:17Avg. Fight Time07:51

Strike Distribution

Murzakanov

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

71%

Body

26%

Leg

4%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Murzakanov

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 70%Standing70%
Clinch — 6%Clinch6%
Ground — 24%Ground24%

Primary Position Standing

Reyes

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

56%

Body

24%

Leg

20%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Reyes

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 75%Standing75%
Clinch — 10%Clinch10%
Ground — 15%Ground15%

Primary Position Standing

Fight Intel

Public Consensus

— Consensus data unavailable —

Latest News

— No recent news —

Murzakanov

Strengths

  • Murzakanov has twelve knockout wins in sixteen victories
  • 89% takedown defense
  • He lands 4.40 significant strikes per minute with a positive differential

Weaknesses

  • Reyes owns major height and reach advantages
  • Reyes lands 4.99 significant strikes per minute

Opportunities

  • Establish the preferred phase early
  • Turn measurable advantages into repeatable scoring sequences

Threats

  • Dominick Reyes changing the fight phase
  • Murzakanov is giving up range to a proven southpaw kickboxer
Reyes

Strengths

  • Reyes owns major height and reach advantages
  • Reyes lands 4.99 significant strikes per minute
  • Murzakanov is giving up range to a proven southpaw kickboxer

Weaknesses

  • Murzakanov has twelve knockout wins in sixteen victories
  • 89% takedown defense

Opportunities

  • Force Azamat Murzakanov away from the projected win condition
  • Exploit transitions after the first defensive layer

Threats

  • Murzakanov has twelve knockout wins in sixteen victories
  • He lands 4.40 significant strikes per minute with a positive differential

In-Depth Analysis

Model favors Murzakanov
Key Advantages
  • Murzakanov has twelve knockout wins in sixteen victories
  • 89% takedown defense
  • He lands 4.40 significant strikes per minute with a positive differential
Potential Concerns
  • Reyes owns major height and reach advantages
  • Reyes lands 4.99 significant strikes per minute
  • Murzakanov is giving up range to a proven southpaw kickboxer
AI Analysis

Murzakanov's compact power and 89% takedown defense slightly outweigh Reyes' length, renewed form and higher-volume kickboxing.

Forecast

Murzakanov is projected to land the heavier pocket offense, with Reyes capable of taking a decision if he preserves range consistently.

Skill ratings, win probability, advantages, concerns, and forecast are AI-generated predictions based on scraped fighter profiles — not official UFC stats or guarantees.

Matchup Breakdown

Murzakanov needs to pressure behind safe entries and attack the body before Reyes establishes long left hands and kicks. Reyes can win minutes at distance, but exchanges become more dangerous whenever Murzakanov closes the pocket. Power and defensive wrestling produce a narrow Murzakanov edge.

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