← UFC 333: Volkanovski vs EvloevGrant DawsonNurullo Aliev

Grant Dawson vs Nurullo AlievUFC 333: Volkanovski vs Evloev

Grant Dawson vs Nurullo Aliev — Lightweight — is scheduled for Saturday, October 24, 2026 at UFC 333: Volkanovski vs Evloev in Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi. Picks Terminal covers the matchup with a win-probability estimate, a matchup breakdown and fight intel drawn from public sources.

Prelims · LightweightID · 1B78FCEF-DA78-47CD-B969-6099C9FCC890

Unranked · Lightweight

Grant Dawson

"KGD"

24-3-1 · Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu

Nurullo Aliev

Unranked · Lightweight

Nurullo Aliev

"Tajik Eagle"

12-0-0 · Wrestling

Win Probability Model · v4.2

Dawson

52%

Edge4%

Aliev

48%

Skill Comparison

78
76
Striking
94
94
Wrestling
88
88
Cardio
80
90
Takedown Defense
82
86
Chin Durability

Physical Attributes

DawsonMetricAliev
5' 10"Height5' 10"
72"Reach72"
32Age25
—Stance—
79%Finish Rate17%

Career Records

DawsonMetricAliev
5Wins by KO/TKO2
14Wins by Submission0
7First-Round Finishes1
3.14Sig. Strikes / Min2.29
2.14Sig. Strikes Absorbed / Min1.59
51%Striking Accuracy44%
45%Striking Defense55%
0.09Knockdown Avg / 15 min0
3.58Takedowns / 15 min3.48
—Takedown Accuracy10%
67%Takedown Defense80%
1.36Submissions / 15 min0.46
11:00Avg. Fight Time12:55

Strike Distribution

Dawson

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

69%

Body

19%

Leg

12%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Dawson

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 49%Standing49%
Clinch — 9%Clinch9%
Ground — 42%Ground42%

Primary Position Standing

Aliev

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

82%

Body

14%

Leg

4%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Aliev

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 51%Standing51%
Clinch — 6%Clinch6%
Ground — 43%Ground43%

Primary Position Standing

Fight Intel

Public Consensus

— Consensus data unavailable —

Latest News

— No recent news —

Dawson

Strengths

  • Dawson has fourteen submission wins
  • He averages 3.58 takedowns and 1.36 submissions per 15 minutes
  • Dawson owns the deeper high-level sample

Weaknesses

  • Aliev is unbeaten at 12-0
  • Aliev absorbs only 1.59 significant strikes per minute

Opportunities

  • Establish the preferred phase early
  • Turn measurable advantages into repeatable scoring sequences

Threats

  • Nurullo Aliev changing the fight phase
  • Aliev's 80% takedown defense can force long clinch battles
Aliev

Strengths

  • Aliev is unbeaten at 12-0
  • Aliev absorbs only 1.59 significant strikes per minute
  • Aliev's 80% takedown defense can force long clinch battles

Weaknesses

  • Dawson has fourteen submission wins
  • He averages 3.58 takedowns and 1.36 submissions per 15 minutes

Opportunities

  • Force Grant Dawson away from the projected win condition
  • Exploit transitions after the first defensive layer

Threats

  • Dawson has fourteen submission wins
  • Dawson owns the deeper high-level sample

In-Depth Analysis

Model favors Dawson
Key Advantages
  • Dawson has fourteen submission wins
  • He averages 3.58 takedowns and 1.36 submissions per 15 minutes
  • Dawson owns the deeper high-level sample
Potential Concerns
  • Aliev is unbeaten at 12-0
  • Aliev absorbs only 1.59 significant strikes per minute
  • Aliev's 80% takedown defense can force long clinch battles
AI Analysis

Dawson's submission depth and longer UFC track record narrowly edge Aliev's unbeaten wrestling pressure and superior defensive metrics.

Forecast

Dawson is projected to find more threatening transitions in a control-heavy fight; Aliev can overturn the pick by consistently winning first position.

Skill ratings, win probability, advantages, concerns, and forecast are AI-generated predictions based on scraped fighter profiles — not official UFC stats or guarantees.

Matchup Breakdown

Dawson should create scrambles rather than rely on a single clean shot, using back takes and submission threats to convert control into damage. Aliev's base, pressure and low absorption can neutralize that route if he wins first position. Dawson's broader submission layers justify a slim preference.

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