← UFC 333: Volkanovski vs EvloevIasmin LucindoNicolle Caliari

Iasmin Lucindo vs Nicolle CaliariUFC 333: Volkanovski vs Evloev

Iasmin Lucindo vs Nicolle Caliari — Women's Strawweight — is scheduled for Saturday, October 24, 2026 at UFC 333: Volkanovski vs Evloev in Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi. Picks Terminal covers the matchup with a win-probability estimate, a matchup breakdown and fight intel drawn from public sources.

Prelims · Women's StrawweightID · 1E60FDAF-9AD6-44F4-A4E6-A4D6902A4538

Unranked · Women's Strawweight

Iasmin Lucindo

18-6-0 · MMA

Unranked · Women's Strawweight

Nicolle Caliari

9-4-0 · Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu

Win Probability Model · v4.2

Lucindo

62%

Edge24%

Caliari

38%

Skill Comparison

82
76
Striking
88
87
Wrestling
86
78
Cardio
85
70
Takedown Defense
86
75
Chin Durability

Physical Attributes

LucindoMetricCaliari
5' 3"Height5' 3"
66"Reach62"
24Age29
—Stance—
61%Finish Rate100%

Career Records

LucindoMetricCaliari
8Wins by KO/TKO5
3Wins by Submission4
3First-Round Finishes4
3.22Sig. Strikes / Min2.88
2.80Sig. Strikes Absorbed / Min5.59
45%Striking Accuracy40%
62%Striking Defense52%
0Knockdown Avg / 15 min0
2.28Takedowns / 15 min3.38
—Takedown Accuracy9%
69%Takedown Defense50%
0.15Submissions / 15 min1.01
14:06Avg. Fight Time11:06

Strike Distribution

Lucindo

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

66%

Body

26%

Leg

8%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Lucindo

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 84%Standing84%
Clinch — 10%Clinch10%
Ground — 7%Ground7%

Primary Position Standing

Caliari

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

67%

Body

23%

Leg

10%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Caliari

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 84%Standing84%
Clinch — 7%Clinch7%
Ground — 9%Ground9%

Primary Position Standing

Fight Intel

Public Consensus

— Consensus data unavailable —

Latest News

— No recent news —

Lucindo

Strengths

  • Lucindo is five years younger
  • She owns 62% striking defense and absorbs only 2.80 significant strikes per minute
  • Lucindo averages 2.28 takedowns per 15 minutes

Weaknesses

  • Caliari owns nine finishes in nine professional wins
  • Caliari averages 3.38 takedowns and 1.01 submissions per 15 minutes

Opportunities

  • Establish the preferred phase early
  • Turn measurable advantages into repeatable scoring sequences

Threats

  • Nicolle Caliari changing the fight phase
  • Lucindo must avoid extended bottom-position sequences
Caliari

Strengths

  • Caliari owns nine finishes in nine professional wins
  • Caliari averages 3.38 takedowns and 1.01 submissions per 15 minutes
  • Lucindo must avoid extended bottom-position sequences

Weaknesses

  • Lucindo is five years younger
  • She owns 62% striking defense and absorbs only 2.80 significant strikes per minute

Opportunities

  • Force Iasmin Lucindo away from the projected win condition
  • Exploit transitions after the first defensive layer

Threats

  • Lucindo is five years younger
  • Lucindo averages 2.28 takedowns per 15 minutes

In-Depth Analysis

Model favors Lucindo
Key Advantages
  • Lucindo is five years younger
  • She owns 62% striking defense and absorbs only 2.80 significant strikes per minute
  • Lucindo averages 2.28 takedowns per 15 minutes
Potential Concerns
  • Caliari owns nine finishes in nine professional wins
  • Caliari averages 3.38 takedowns and 1.01 submissions per 15 minutes
  • Lucindo must avoid extended bottom-position sequences
AI Analysis

Lucindo's youth, defensive striking and steadier wrestling sample provide the clearest statistical edge on the card's opening bout.

Forecast

Lucindo is projected to control the cleaner striking and defensive minutes, while Caliari's grappling creates the primary upset route.

Skill ratings, win probability, advantages, concerns, and forecast are AI-generated predictions based on scraped fighter profiles — not official UFC stats or guarantees.

Matchup Breakdown

Lucindo should pressure behind safe combinations, force reactive shots and use her defensive wrestling to keep favorable top or standing positions. Caliari's submission activity is a real threat if scrambles become loose, but her 5.59 significant strikes absorbed per minute makes extended exchanges difficult.

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