← UFC 333: Volkanovski vs EvloevKody SteeleNoah Gugnon

Kody Steele vs Noah GugnonUFC 333: Volkanovski vs Evloev

Kody Steele vs Noah Gugnon — Lightweight — is scheduled for Saturday, October 24, 2026 at UFC 333: Volkanovski vs Evloev in Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi. Picks Terminal covers the matchup with a win-probability estimate, a matchup breakdown and fight intel drawn from public sources.

Prelims · LightweightID · 4EE27217-8A31-479F-AB2C-CCE6390F6213

Kody Steele

Unranked · Lightweight

Kody Steele

8-1-0 · Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu

Unranked · Lightweight

Noah Gugnon

10-2-0 · MMA

Win Probability Model · v4.2

Steele

55%

Edge10%

Gugnon

45%

Skill Comparison

78

79

Striking

86

85

Wrestling

80

76

Cardio

94

—

Takedown Defense

73

78

Chin Durability

Physical Attributes

SteeleMetricGugnon

5' 9"Height5' 10"

71"Reach—

31Age25

—Stance—

75%Finish Rate100%

Career Records

SteeleMetricGugnon

4Wins by KO/TKO6

2Wins by Submission4

2First-Round Finishes7

3.85Sig. Strikes / Min3.70

6.20Sig. Strikes Absorbed / Min4.44

33%Striking Accuracy45%

52%Striking Defense68%

0.53Knockdown Avg / 15 min0

1.07Takedowns / 15 min0

12%Takedown Accuracy—

100%Takedown Defense—

0.53Submissions / 15 min11.11

09:21Avg. Fight Time01:21

Strike Distribution

Steele

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

74%

Body

22%

Leg

4%

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 97%

Standing97%

Clinch — 2%

Clinch2%

Ground — 1%

Ground1%

Primary Position Standing

Gugnon

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Leg

Head

20%

Body

0%

Leg

80%

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 100%

Standing100%

Clinch — 0%

Clinch0%

Ground — 0%

Ground0%

Primary Position Standing

Fight Intel

Public Consensus

— Consensus data unavailable —

Latest News

— No recent news —

Steele

Strengths

Steele's current takedown-defense rate is 100%
He has six finishes in eight wins
His 108 landed UFC significant strikes provide the firmer baseline

Weaknesses

Steele absorbs 6.20 significant strikes per minute
Gugnon has ten finishes in ten professional wins

Opportunities

Establish the preferred phase early
Turn measurable advantages into repeatable scoring sequences

Threats

Noah Gugnon changing the fight phase
Gugnon's five-strike UFC sample is too small for stable rate comparisons

Gugnon

Strengths

Steele absorbs 6.20 significant strikes per minute
Gugnon has ten finishes in ten professional wins
Gugnon's five-strike UFC sample is too small for stable rate comparisons

Weaknesses

Steele's current takedown-defense rate is 100%
He has six finishes in eight wins

Opportunities

Force Kody Steele away from the projected win condition
Exploit transitions after the first defensive layer

Threats

Steele's current takedown-defense rate is 100%
His 108 landed UFC significant strikes provide the firmer baseline

In-Depth Analysis

Model favors Steele

Key Advantages

Steele's current takedown-defense rate is 100%
He has six finishes in eight wins
His 108 landed UFC significant strikes provide the firmer baseline

Potential Concerns

Steele absorbs 6.20 significant strikes per minute
Gugnon has ten finishes in ten professional wins
Gugnon's five-strike UFC sample is too small for stable rate comparisons

AI Analysis

Steele's established UFC sample and defensive wrestling earn the lean over Gugnon's finishing upside, whose official rates rest on only five landed significant strikes.

Forecast

Steele is projected to control more repeatable minutes, while Gugnon's finishing threat and tiny sample make this a low-confidence matchup.

Skill ratings, win probability, advantages, concerns, and forecast are AI-generated predictions based on scraped fighter profiles — not official UFC stats or guarantees.

Matchup Breakdown

Steele should use disciplined entries and grappling control without leaving his chin exposed in open exchanges. Gugnon's finishing record commands respect, but his current official distributions come from only five landed strikes and cannot support strong conclusions. Sample reliability favors Steele.

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