← UFC 334: Gane vs HokitBia MesquitaMacy Chiasson

Bia Mesquita vs Macy ChiassonUFC 334: Gane vs Hokit

Bia Mesquita vs Macy Chiasson — Women's Bantamweight — is scheduled for Saturday, November 14, 2026 at UFC 334: Gane vs Hokit in Madison Square Garden, New York. Picks Terminal covers the matchup with a win-probability estimate, a matchup breakdown and fight intel drawn from public sources.

Prelims · Women's BantamweightID · 8A64D5B5-B3D5-4C01-95F1-65C0ABC84833

Rank #11 · Women's Bantamweight

Bia Mesquita

8-0-0 · Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu

Rank #10 · Women's Bantamweight

Macy Chiasson

11-6-0 · MMA

Win Probability Model · v4.2

Mesquita

62%

Edge24%

Chiasson

38%

Skill Comparison

96
82
Striking
96
78
Wrestling
72
79
Cardio
79
63
Takedown Defense
86
83
Chin Durability

Physical Attributes

MesquitaMetricChiasson
5' 6"Height5' 11"
67.5"Reach72"
35Age35
—Stance—
88%Finish Rate64%

Career Records

MesquitaMetricChiasson
1Wins by KO/TKO4
6Wins by Submission3
4First-Round Finishes3
4.52Sig. Strikes / Min3.21
1.27Sig. Strikes Absorbed / Min2.76
57%Striking Accuracy46%
71%Striking Defense45%
0Knockdown Avg / 15 min0.20
3.57Takedowns / 15 min1.87
50%Takedown Accuracy—
—Takedown Defense63%
3.57Submissions / 15 min0.39
04:12Avg. Fight Time10:54

Strike Distribution

Mesquita

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

93%

Body

4%

Leg

4%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Mesquita

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 19%Standing19%
Clinch — 0%Clinch0%
Ground — 81%Ground81%

Primary Position Ground

Chiasson

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

55%

Body

35%

Leg

10%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Chiasson

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 48%Standing48%
Clinch — 31%Clinch31%
Ground — 21%Ground21%

Primary Position Standing

Fight Intel

Public Consensus

— Consensus data unavailable —

Latest News

— No recent news —

Mesquita

Strengths

  • Bia Mesquita leads in significant-strike pace (4.52 vs 3.21)
  • Bia Mesquita leads in significant-strike defense (71% vs 45%)
  • Bia Mesquita leads in takedown activity per 15 minutes (3.57 vs 1.87)

Weaknesses

  • Macy Chiasson owns a 4.5-inch reach advantage
  • Macy Chiasson's path improves if early exchanges establish tempo

Opportunities

  • Force Macy Chiasson away from the projected win condition
  • Exploit transitions after the first defensive layer

Threats

  • Macy Chiasson owns a 4.5-inch reach advantage
  • Clean defense-to-offense transitions can protect Macy Chiasson's preferred range
Chiasson

Strengths

  • Macy Chiasson owns a 4.5-inch reach advantage
  • Macy Chiasson's path improves if early exchanges establish tempo
  • Clean defense-to-offense transitions can protect Macy Chiasson's preferred range

Weaknesses

  • Bia Mesquita leads in significant-strike pace (4.52 vs 3.21)
  • Bia Mesquita leads in significant-strike defense (71% vs 45%)

Opportunities

  • Establish the preferred phase early
  • Turn measurable advantages into repeatable scoring sequences

Threats

  • Bia Mesquita changing the fight phase
  • Bia Mesquita leads in takedown activity per 15 minutes (3.57 vs 1.87)

In-Depth Analysis

Model favors Mesquita
Key Advantages
  • Bia Mesquita leads in significant-strike pace (4.52 vs 3.21)
  • Bia Mesquita leads in significant-strike defense (71% vs 45%)
  • Bia Mesquita leads in takedown activity per 15 minutes (3.57 vs 1.87)
Potential Concerns
  • Macy Chiasson owns a 4.5-inch reach advantage
  • Macy Chiasson's path improves if early exchanges establish tempo
  • Clean defense-to-offense transitions can protect Macy Chiasson's preferred range
AI Analysis

Bia Mesquita's blend of measurable phase advantages and repeatable scoring routes produces a 62-38 analyst-model lean.

Forecast

Bia Mesquita is projected to win the higher share of repeatable scoring exchanges, but the matchup remains competitive and sensitive to early phase control.

Skill ratings, win probability, advantages, concerns, and forecast are AI-generated predictions based on scraped fighter profiles — not official UFC stats or guarantees.

Matchup Breakdown

Macy Chiasson projects best when the fight stays in the phases reflected by the stronger pace and defensive metrics, while Bia Mesquita can change the matchup through pressure, transitions and sustained control. The projection stays conservative because career aggregates do not capture every tactical adjustment, and limited UFC samples are down-weighted.

Picks Terminal Weekly

A concise NFL and UFC/MMA briefing — Monday previews, Friday updates.

Key matchups, model signals, and the stories worth knowing across both sports. Free, no fluff, one-click unsubscribe.