← UFC 334: Gane vs HokitCaio BorralhoYousri Belgaroui

Caio Borralho vs Yousri BelgarouiUFC 334: Gane vs Hokit

Caio Borralho vs Yousri Belgaroui — Middleweight — is scheduled for Saturday, November 14, 2026 at UFC 334: Gane vs Hokit in Madison Square Garden, New York. Picks Terminal covers the matchup with a win-probability estimate, a matchup breakdown and fight intel drawn from public sources.

Main Card · MiddleweightID · 0FDA97E5-E77A-4367-AE0D-7CB178732FE7
Caio Borralho

Rank #5 · Middleweight

Caio Borralho

18-2-0 · MMA

Yousri Belgaroui

Unranked · Middleweight

Yousri Belgaroui

11-3-0 · Striker

Win Probability Model · v4.2

Borralho

54%

Edge8%

Belgaroui

46%

Skill Comparison

89
96
Striking
78
68
Wrestling
86
82
Cardio
76
67
Takedown Defense
87
85
Chin Durability

Physical Attributes

BorralhoMetricBelgaroui
6' 1.5"Height6' 6"
75"Reach79"
33Age34
—Stance—
50%Finish Rate82%

Career Records

BorralhoMetricBelgaroui
5Wins by KO/TKO9
4Wins by Submission—
6First-Round Finishes5
3.47Sig. Strikes / Min6.44
2.61Sig. Strikes Absorbed / Min2.28
56%Striking Accuracy63%
60%Striking Defense64%
0.39Knockdown Avg / 15 min1.06
1.25Takedowns / 15 min0.27
4%Takedown Accuracy100%
76%Takedown Defense67%
0.39Submissions / 15 min0
14:09Avg. Fight Time11:19

Strike Distribution

Borralho

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

63%

Body

21%

Leg

16%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Borralho

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 79%Standing79%
Clinch — 8%Clinch8%
Ground — 13%Ground13%

Primary Position Standing

Belgaroui

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

58%

Body

26%

Leg

17%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Belgaroui

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 86%Standing86%
Clinch — 12%Clinch12%
Ground — 2%Ground2%

Primary Position Standing

Fight Intel

Public Consensus

— Consensus data unavailable —

Latest News

— No recent news —

Borralho

Strengths

  • Caio Borralho leads in takedown activity per 15 minutes (1.25 vs 0.27)
  • Caio Borralho leads in takedown defense (76% vs 67%)
  • Caio Borralho leads in submission activity per 15 minutes (0.39 vs 0)

Weaknesses

  • Yousri Belgaroui leads in significant-strike pace (6.44 vs 3.47)
  • Yousri Belgaroui leads in significant-strike defense (64% vs 60%)

Opportunities

  • Establish the preferred phase early
  • Turn measurable advantages into repeatable scoring sequences

Threats

  • Yousri Belgaroui changing the fight phase
  • Yousri Belgaroui owns a 4-inch reach advantage
Belgaroui

Strengths

  • Yousri Belgaroui leads in significant-strike pace (6.44 vs 3.47)
  • Yousri Belgaroui leads in significant-strike defense (64% vs 60%)
  • Yousri Belgaroui owns a 4-inch reach advantage

Weaknesses

  • Caio Borralho leads in takedown activity per 15 minutes (1.25 vs 0.27)
  • Caio Borralho leads in takedown defense (76% vs 67%)

Opportunities

  • Force Caio Borralho away from the projected win condition
  • Exploit transitions after the first defensive layer

Threats

  • Caio Borralho leads in takedown activity per 15 minutes (1.25 vs 0.27)
  • Caio Borralho leads in submission activity per 15 minutes (0.39 vs 0)

In-Depth Analysis

Model favors Borralho
Key Advantages
  • Caio Borralho leads in takedown activity per 15 minutes (1.25 vs 0.27)
  • Caio Borralho leads in takedown defense (76% vs 67%)
  • Caio Borralho leads in submission activity per 15 minutes (0.39 vs 0)
Potential Concerns
  • Yousri Belgaroui leads in significant-strike pace (6.44 vs 3.47)
  • Yousri Belgaroui leads in significant-strike defense (64% vs 60%)
  • Yousri Belgaroui owns a 4-inch reach advantage
AI Analysis

Caio Borralho's blend of measurable phase advantages and repeatable scoring routes produces a 54-46 analyst-model lean.

Forecast

Caio Borralho is projected to win the higher share of repeatable scoring exchanges, but the matchup remains competitive and sensitive to early phase control.

Skill ratings, win probability, advantages, concerns, and forecast are AI-generated predictions based on scraped fighter profiles — not official UFC stats or guarantees.

Matchup Breakdown

Caio Borralho projects best when the fight stays in the phases reflected by the stronger pace and defensive metrics, while Yousri Belgaroui can change the matchup through pressure, transitions and sustained control. The projection stays conservative because career aggregates do not capture every tactical adjustment, and limited UFC samples are down-weighted.

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