← UFC 334: Gane vs HokitCesar AlmeidaDonte Johnson

Cesar Almeida vs Donte JohnsonUFC 334: Gane vs Hokit

Cesar Almeida vs Donte Johnson — Catchweight — is scheduled for Saturday, November 14, 2026 at UFC 334: Gane vs Hokit in Madison Square Garden, New York. Picks Terminal covers the matchup with a win-probability estimate, a matchup breakdown and fight intel drawn from public sources.

Prelims · CatchweightID · 92AD459F-79C4-4288-A857-318A3D446AE1

Unranked · Catchweight

Cesar Almeida

7-3-0 · Striker

Donte Johnson

Unranked · Catchweight

Donte Johnson

9-0-0 · MMA

Win Probability Model · v4.2

Almeida

41%

Edge18%

Johnson

59%

Skill Comparison

87
87
Striking
65
83
Wrestling
79
74
Cardio
53
77
Takedown Defense
82
84
Chin Durability

Physical Attributes

AlmeidaMetricJohnson
6' 1"Height5' 8"
74"Reach74"
38Age27
—Stance—
71%Finish Rate78%

Career Records

AlmeidaMetricJohnson
5Wins by KO/TKO7
0Wins by Submission1
4First-Round Finishes7
3.73Sig. Strikes / Min3.36
2.23Sig. Strikes Absorbed / Min2.11
60%Striking Accuracy46%
44%Striking Defense61%
0.20Knockdown Avg / 15 min1.24
0.20Takedowns / 15 min1.87
0%Takedown Accuracy100%
53%Takedown Defense77%
0.20Submissions / 15 min0.62
10:53Avg. Fight Time06:02

Strike Distribution

Almeida

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

44%

Body

33%

Leg

23%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Almeida

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 64%Standing64%
Clinch — 14%Clinch14%
Ground — 22%Ground22%

Primary Position Standing

Johnson

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

80%

Body

6%

Leg

14%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Johnson

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 73%Standing73%
Clinch — 7%Clinch7%
Ground — 20%Ground20%

Primary Position Standing

Fight Intel

Public Consensus

— Consensus data unavailable —

Latest News

Almeida

Strengths

  • Cesar Almeida leads in significant-strike pace (3.73 vs 3.36)
  • A momentum swing could expose the less-tested defensive layer
  • Small samples add uncertainty to the numerical comparison

Weaknesses

  • Donte Johnson leads in significant-strike defense (61% vs 44%)
  • Donte Johnson leads in takedown activity per 15 minutes (1.87 vs 0.2)

Opportunities

  • Force Donte Johnson away from the projected win condition
  • Exploit transitions after the first defensive layer

Threats

  • Donte Johnson leads in significant-strike defense (61% vs 44%)
  • Donte Johnson leads in takedown defense (77% vs 53%)
Johnson

Strengths

  • Donte Johnson leads in significant-strike defense (61% vs 44%)
  • Donte Johnson leads in takedown activity per 15 minutes (1.87 vs 0.2)
  • Donte Johnson leads in takedown defense (77% vs 53%)

Weaknesses

  • Cesar Almeida leads in significant-strike pace (3.73 vs 3.36)
  • A momentum swing could expose the less-tested defensive layer

Opportunities

  • Establish the preferred phase early
  • Turn measurable advantages into repeatable scoring sequences

Threats

  • Cesar Almeida changing the fight phase
  • Small samples add uncertainty to the numerical comparison

In-Depth Analysis

Model favors Johnson
Key Advantages
  • Cesar Almeida leads in significant-strike pace (3.73 vs 3.36)
  • A momentum swing could expose the less-tested defensive layer
  • Small samples add uncertainty to the numerical comparison
Potential Concerns
  • Donte Johnson leads in significant-strike defense (61% vs 44%)
  • Donte Johnson leads in takedown activity per 15 minutes (1.87 vs 0.2)
  • Donte Johnson leads in takedown defense (77% vs 53%)
AI Analysis

Donte Johnson's blend of measurable phase advantages and repeatable scoring routes produces a 59-41 analyst-model lean.

Forecast

Donte Johnson is projected to win the higher share of repeatable scoring exchanges, but the matchup remains competitive and sensitive to early phase control.

Skill ratings, win probability, advantages, concerns, and forecast are AI-generated predictions based on scraped fighter profiles — not official UFC stats or guarantees.

Matchup Breakdown

Donte Johnson projects best when the fight stays in the phases reflected by the stronger pace and defensive metrics, while Cesar Almeida can change the matchup through pressure, transitions and sustained control. The projection stays conservative because career aggregates do not capture every tactical adjustment, and limited UFC samples are down-weighted.

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