← UFC 334: Gane vs HokitCharles RadtkeStephen Thompson

Charles Radtke vs Stephen ThompsonUFC 334: Gane vs Hokit

Charles Radtke vs Stephen Thompson — Welterweight — is scheduled for Saturday, November 14, 2026 at UFC 334: Gane vs Hokit in Madison Square Garden, New York. Picks Terminal covers the matchup with a win-probability estimate, a matchup breakdown and fight intel drawn from public sources.

Prelims · WelterweightID · 1E57BCCE-CCCD-4431-A5C3-F8A24C332E23
Charles Radtke

Unranked · Welterweight

Charles Radtke

12-5-0 · MMA

Stephen Thompson

Unranked · Welterweight

Stephen Thompson

17-9-1 · Karate

Win Probability Model · v4.2

Radtke

48%

Edge4%

Thompson

52%

Skill Comparison

73
89
Striking
88
67
Wrestling
68
85
Cardio
78
63
Takedown Defense
80
86
Chin Durability

Physical Attributes

RadtkeMetricThompson
5' 9"Height6' 0"
72"Reach75"
36Age43
—Stance—
67%Finish Rate53%

Career Records

RadtkeMetricThompson
5Wins by KO/TKO8
3Wins by Submission1
5First-Round Finishes5
2.21Sig. Strikes / Min4.05
8Sig. Strikes Absorbed / Min3
46%Striking Accuracy46%
30%Striking Defense55%
0Knockdown Avg / 15 min0.47
4.14Takedowns / 15 min0.23
—Takedown Accuracy36%
—Takedown Defense63%
0Submissions / 15 min0
03:38Avg. Fight Time14:31

Strike Distribution

Radtke

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Balanced

Head

38%

Body

31%

Leg

31%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Radtke

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 100%Standing100%
Clinch — 0%Clinch0%
Ground — 0%Ground0%

Primary Position Standing

Thompson

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

66%

Body

24%

Leg

10%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Thompson

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 90%Standing90%
Clinch — 7%Clinch7%
Ground — 4%Ground4%

Primary Position Standing

Fight Intel

Public Consensus

— Consensus data unavailable —

Latest News

— No recent news —

Radtke

Strengths

  • Charles Radtke leads in takedown activity per 15 minutes (4.14 vs 0.23)
  • A momentum swing could expose the less-tested defensive layer
  • Small samples add uncertainty to the numerical comparison

Weaknesses

  • Stephen Thompson leads in significant-strike pace (4.05 vs 2.21)
  • Stephen Thompson leads in significant-strike defense (55% vs 30%)

Opportunities

  • Force Stephen Thompson away from the projected win condition
  • Exploit transitions after the first defensive layer

Threats

  • Stephen Thompson leads in significant-strike pace (4.05 vs 2.21)
  • Stephen Thompson owns a 3-inch reach advantage
Thompson

Strengths

  • Stephen Thompson leads in significant-strike pace (4.05 vs 2.21)
  • Stephen Thompson leads in significant-strike defense (55% vs 30%)
  • Stephen Thompson owns a 3-inch reach advantage

Weaknesses

  • Charles Radtke leads in takedown activity per 15 minutes (4.14 vs 0.23)
  • A momentum swing could expose the less-tested defensive layer

Opportunities

  • Establish the preferred phase early
  • Turn measurable advantages into repeatable scoring sequences

Threats

  • Charles Radtke changing the fight phase
  • Small samples add uncertainty to the numerical comparison

In-Depth Analysis

Model favors Thompson
Key Advantages
  • Charles Radtke leads in takedown activity per 15 minutes (4.14 vs 0.23)
  • A momentum swing could expose the less-tested defensive layer
  • Small samples add uncertainty to the numerical comparison
Potential Concerns
  • Stephen Thompson leads in significant-strike pace (4.05 vs 2.21)
  • Stephen Thompson leads in significant-strike defense (55% vs 30%)
  • Stephen Thompson owns a 3-inch reach advantage
AI Analysis

Stephen Thompson's blend of measurable phase advantages and repeatable scoring routes produces a 52-48 analyst-model lean.

Forecast

Stephen Thompson is projected to win the higher share of repeatable scoring exchanges, but the matchup remains competitive and sensitive to early phase control.

Skill ratings, win probability, advantages, concerns, and forecast are AI-generated predictions based on scraped fighter profiles — not official UFC stats or guarantees.

Matchup Breakdown

Stephen Thompson projects best when the fight stays in the phases reflected by the stronger pace and defensive metrics, while Charles Radtke can change the matchup through pressure, transitions and sustained control. The projection stays conservative because career aggregates do not capture every tactical adjustment, and limited UFC samples are down-weighted.

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