Prelims · LightweightID · 690E8208-B124-4D09-B794-09DD5070D623
Unranked · Lightweight
Chris Duncan
15-3-0 · Striker
Unranked · Lightweight
Drew Dober
29-15-0 · Freestyle
Win Probability Model · v4.2
Duncan
54%
Edge8%
Dober
46%
Skill Comparison
92
90
Striking
84
68
Wrestling
75
75
Cardio
56
58
Takedown Defense
84
85
Chin Durability
Physical Attributes
DuncanMetricDober
5' 10"Height5' 8"
71.5"Reach70"
33Age38
—Stance—
73%Finish Rate76%
Career Records
DuncanMetricDober
7Wins by KO/TKO17
4Wins by Submission5
6First-Round Finishes10
4.83Sig. Strikes / Min4.48
4.57Sig. Strikes Absorbed / Min4.33
46%Striking Accuracy41%
51%Striking Defense53%
0.58Knockdown Avg / 15 min0.68
2.92Takedowns / 15 min0.61
14%Takedown Accuracy13%
56%Takedown Defense58%
0.58Submissions / 15 min0.07
07:42Avg. Fight Time07:56
Strike Distribution
Duncan
Sig. Strikes by Target
Primary Target Head
Head
60%
Body
22%
Leg
17%
Sig. Strikes by Position
Standing83%
Clinch6%
Ground11%Primary Position Standing
Dober
Sig. Strikes by Target
Primary Target Head
Head
63%
Body
23%
Leg
14%
Sig. Strikes by Position
Standing79%Clinch11%Ground9%Primary Position Standing
Fight Intel
Public Consensus
— Consensus data unavailable —
Latest News
— No recent news —
Duncan
Strengths
- Chris Duncan leads in takedown activity per 15 minutes (2.92 vs 0.61)
- Chris Duncan leads in submission activity per 15 minutes (0.58 vs 0.07)
- Small samples add uncertainty to the numerical comparison
Weaknesses
- Drew Dober can build offense around the matchup's most repeatable phase
- Drew Dober's path improves if early exchanges establish tempo
Opportunities
- Force Drew Dober away from the projected win condition
- Exploit transitions after the first defensive layer
Threats
- Drew Dober can build offense around the matchup's most repeatable phase
- Clean defense-to-offense transitions can protect Drew Dober's preferred range
Dober
Strengths
- Drew Dober can build offense around the matchup's most repeatable phase
- Drew Dober's path improves if early exchanges establish tempo
- Clean defense-to-offense transitions can protect Drew Dober's preferred range
Weaknesses
- Chris Duncan leads in takedown activity per 15 minutes (2.92 vs 0.61)
- Chris Duncan leads in submission activity per 15 minutes (0.58 vs 0.07)
Opportunities
- Establish the preferred phase early
- Turn measurable advantages into repeatable scoring sequences
Threats
- Chris Duncan changing the fight phase
- Small samples add uncertainty to the numerical comparison