← UFC 334: Gane vs HokitEvan ElderSamuel Sanches

Evan Elder vs Samuel SanchesUFC 334: Gane vs Hokit

Evan Elder vs Samuel Sanches — Lightweight — is scheduled for Saturday, November 14, 2026 at UFC 334: Gane vs Hokit in Madison Square Garden, New York. Picks Terminal covers the matchup with a win-probability estimate, a matchup breakdown and fight intel drawn from public sources.

Prelims · LightweightID · D2BC2110-D406-48AD-AF3D-A32F688A5B4F

Unranked · Lightweight

Evan Elder

10-2-0 · MMA

Unranked · Lightweight

Samuel Sanches

11-1-0 · Striker

Win Probability Model · v4.2

Elder

47%

Edge6%

Sanches

53%

Skill Comparison

96
96
Striking
64
79
Wrestling
83
71
Cardio
40
100
Takedown Defense
85
91
Chin Durability

Physical Attributes

ElderMetricSanches
5' 10"Height5' 10"
72"Reach74.5"
29Age23
—Stance—
60%Finish Rate73%

Career Records

ElderMetricSanches
4Wins by KO/TKO8
2Wins by Submission—
4First-Round Finishes7
5.66Sig. Strikes / Min5.95
4.94Sig. Strikes Absorbed / Min0
51%Striking Accuracy75%
57%Striking Defense100%
0.48Knockdown Avg / 15 min7.44
0.48Takedowns / 15 min0
40%Takedown Defense100%
0.48Submissions / 15 min0
12:29Avg. Fight Time02:01

Strike Distribution

Elder

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

46%

Body

38%

Leg

16%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Elder

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 92%Standing92%
Clinch — 4%Clinch4%
Ground — 4%Ground4%

Primary Position Standing

Sanches

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

67%

Body

25%

Leg

8%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Sanches

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 67%Standing67%
Clinch — 33%Clinch33%
Ground — 0%Ground0%

Primary Position Standing

Fight Intel

Public Consensus

— Consensus data unavailable —

Latest News

— No recent news —

Elder

Strengths

  • Evan Elder leads in takedown activity per 15 minutes (0.48 vs 0)
  • Evan Elder leads in submission activity per 15 minutes (0.48 vs 0)
  • Clean defense-to-offense transitions can protect Evan Elder's preferred range

Weaknesses

  • Samuel Sanches leads in significant-strike defense (100% vs 57%)
  • Samuel Sanches leads in takedown defense (100% vs 40%)

Opportunities

  • Establish the preferred phase early
  • Turn measurable advantages into repeatable scoring sequences

Threats

  • Samuel Sanches changing the fight phase
  • Samuel Sanches owns a 2.5-inch reach advantage
Sanches

Strengths

  • Samuel Sanches leads in significant-strike defense (100% vs 57%)
  • Samuel Sanches leads in takedown defense (100% vs 40%)
  • Samuel Sanches owns a 2.5-inch reach advantage

Weaknesses

  • Evan Elder leads in takedown activity per 15 minutes (0.48 vs 0)
  • Evan Elder leads in submission activity per 15 minutes (0.48 vs 0)

Opportunities

  • Force Evan Elder away from the projected win condition
  • Exploit transitions after the first defensive layer

Threats

  • Evan Elder leads in takedown activity per 15 minutes (0.48 vs 0)
  • Clean defense-to-offense transitions can protect Evan Elder's preferred range

In-Depth Analysis

Model favors Sanches
Key Advantages
  • Evan Elder leads in takedown activity per 15 minutes (0.48 vs 0)
  • Evan Elder leads in submission activity per 15 minutes (0.48 vs 0)
  • Clean defense-to-offense transitions can protect Evan Elder's preferred range
Potential Concerns
  • Samuel Sanches leads in significant-strike defense (100% vs 57%)
  • Samuel Sanches leads in takedown defense (100% vs 40%)
  • Samuel Sanches owns a 2.5-inch reach advantage
AI Analysis

Sanches holds a small activity edge, while Elder's UFC experience keeps the projection near even.

Forecast

Sanches is projected to edge a competitive fight through slightly higher sustained output, with Elder capable of reversing the lean through defensive adjustments and cleaner late rounds.

Skill ratings, win probability, advantages, concerns, and forecast are AI-generated predictions based on scraped fighter profiles — not official UFC stats or guarantees.

Matchup Breakdown

Evan Elder projects best when the fight stays in the phases reflected by the stronger pace and defensive metrics, while Samuel Sanches can change the matchup through pressure, transitions and sustained control. The projection stays conservative because career aggregates do not capture every tactical adjustment, and limited UFC samples are down-weighted.

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