← UFC 334: Gane vs HokitJared GordonMelquizael Costa

Jared Gordon vs Melquizael CostaUFC 334: Gane vs Hokit

Jared Gordon vs Melquizael Costa — Lightweight — is scheduled for Saturday, November 14, 2026 at UFC 334: Gane vs Hokit in Madison Square Garden, New York. Picks Terminal covers the matchup with a win-probability estimate, a matchup breakdown and fight intel drawn from public sources.

Prelims · LightweightID · 3ADAE27F-E4BA-430F-84BD-277BD13F1E92

Unranked · Lightweight

Jared Gordon

21-9-0 · Freestyle

Rank #12 · Lightweight

Melquizael Costa

26-7-0 · MMA

Win Probability Model · v4.2

Gordon

54%

Edge8%

Costa

46%

Skill Comparison

96
89
Striking
76
75
Wrestling
79
79
Cardio
60
51
Takedown Defense
87
85
Chin Durability

Physical Attributes

GordonMetricCosta
5' 9"Height5' 10"
68"Reach71"
38Age30
—Stance—
48%Finish Rate65%

Career Records

GordonMetricCosta
8Wins by KO/TKO9
2Wins by Submission8
4First-Round Finishes11
5.57Sig. Strikes / Min4.29
4.11Sig. Strikes Absorbed / Min3.19
54%Striking Accuracy47%
55%Striking Defense50%
0.16Knockdown Avg / 15 min0.28
1.91Takedowns / 15 min1.53
9%Takedown Accuracy—
60%Takedown Defense51%
0Submissions / 15 min0.84
10:28Avg. Fight Time10:46

Strike Distribution

Gordon

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

74%

Body

16%

Leg

9%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Gordon

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 70%Standing70%
Clinch — 12%Clinch12%
Ground — 18%Ground18%

Primary Position Standing

Costa

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

47%

Body

30%

Leg

23%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Costa

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 83%Standing83%
Clinch — 9%Clinch9%
Ground — 8%Ground8%

Primary Position Standing

Fight Intel

Public Consensus

— Consensus data unavailable —

Latest News

— No recent news —

Gordon

Strengths

  • Jared Gordon leads in significant-strike pace (5.57 vs 4.29)
  • Jared Gordon leads in significant-strike defense (55% vs 50%)
  • Jared Gordon leads in takedown activity per 15 minutes (1.91 vs 1.53)

Weaknesses

  • Melquizael Costa leads in submission activity per 15 minutes (0.84 vs 0)
  • Melquizael Costa owns a 3-inch reach advantage

Opportunities

  • Establish the preferred phase early
  • Turn measurable advantages into repeatable scoring sequences

Threats

  • Melquizael Costa changing the fight phase
  • Small samples add uncertainty to the numerical comparison
Costa

Strengths

  • Melquizael Costa leads in submission activity per 15 minutes (0.84 vs 0)
  • Melquizael Costa owns a 3-inch reach advantage
  • Small samples add uncertainty to the numerical comparison

Weaknesses

  • Jared Gordon leads in significant-strike pace (5.57 vs 4.29)
  • Jared Gordon leads in significant-strike defense (55% vs 50%)

Opportunities

  • Force Jared Gordon away from the projected win condition
  • Exploit transitions after the first defensive layer

Threats

  • Jared Gordon leads in significant-strike pace (5.57 vs 4.29)
  • Jared Gordon leads in takedown activity per 15 minutes (1.91 vs 1.53)

In-Depth Analysis

Model favors Gordon
Key Advantages
  • Jared Gordon leads in significant-strike pace (5.57 vs 4.29)
  • Jared Gordon leads in significant-strike defense (55% vs 50%)
  • Jared Gordon leads in takedown activity per 15 minutes (1.91 vs 1.53)
Potential Concerns
  • Melquizael Costa leads in submission activity per 15 minutes (0.84 vs 0)
  • Melquizael Costa owns a 3-inch reach advantage
  • Small samples add uncertainty to the numerical comparison
AI Analysis

Jared Gordon's blend of measurable phase advantages and repeatable scoring routes produces a 54-46 analyst-model lean.

Forecast

Jared Gordon is projected to win the higher share of repeatable scoring exchanges, but the matchup remains competitive and sensitive to early phase control.

Skill ratings, win probability, advantages, concerns, and forecast are AI-generated predictions based on scraped fighter profiles — not official UFC stats or guarantees.

Matchup Breakdown

Jared Gordon projects best when the fight stays in the phases reflected by the stronger pace and defensive metrics, while Melquizael Costa can change the matchup through pressure, transitions and sustained control. The projection stays conservative because career aggregates do not capture every tactical adjustment, and limited UFC samples are down-weighted.

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