← UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs SalkilldAmanda LemosAlexia Thainara

Amanda Lemos vs Alexia Thainara — Women's Strawweight — is scheduled for Saturday, August 8, 2026 at UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs Salkilld in Meta APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada, United States. Picks Terminal covers the matchup with a win-probability estimate, a matchup breakdown and fight intel drawn from public sources.

Co-Main Event · Women's StrawweightID · 2A0AE32A-6D93-413D-BDAA-8ED8C3E33385

Rank #5 WSW · Women's Strawweight

Amanda Lemos

"Amandinha"

15-6-1 · Striker

Rank #12 WSW · Women's Strawweight

Alexia Thainara

14-1-0 · Mixed Martial Arts

Win Probability Model · v4.2

Lemos

44%

Edge12%

Thainara

56%

Skill Comparison

88
81
Striking
69
89
Wrestling
76
84
Cardio
74
96
Takedown Defense
77
84
Chin Durability

Physical Attributes

LemosMetricThainara
5' 4"Height5' 7"
65"Reach67.5"
39Age28
SouthpawStanceOrthodox
80%Finish Rate64%

Career Records

LemosMetricThainara
8Wins by KO/TKO2
4Wins by Submission7
8First-Round Finishes5
3.63Sig. Strikes / Min3.21
4.21Sig. Strikes Absorbed / Min2.88
54%Striking Accuracy51%
48%Striking Defense55%
0.97Takedowns / 15 min2.67
63%Takedown Accuracy53%
70%Takedown Defense100%
0.50Submissions / 15 min1.30

Strike Distribution

Lemos

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 69%Standing69%
Clinch — 13%Clinch13%
Ground — 18%Ground18%

Primary Position Standing

Thainara

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 77%Standing77%
Clinch — 11%Clinch11%
Ground — 12%Ground12%

Primary Position Standing

Fight Intel

Public Consensus

— Consensus data unavailable —

Latest News

— No recent news —

Lemos

Strengths

  • Proven power
  • Top-five experience
  • Fast counters

Weaknesses

  • Age
  • Negative strike differential

Opportunities

  • Catch entries
  • Attack early

Threats

  • Submission chains
  • Length and pace
Thainara

Strengths

  • Submission game
  • Youth
  • Length

Weaknesses

  • Limited elite experience
  • Modest striking volume

Opportunities

  • Force clinches
  • Extend the pace

Threats

  • Lemos's knockout power
  • Early body attacks

In-Depth Analysis

Model favors Thainara
Key Advantages
  • Lemos: proven knockout power and elite top-five experience.
  • Lemos: 63% takedown accuracy when she chooses to wrestle.
  • Thainara: seven submission wins, seven-inch height advantage and perfect recorded UFC takedown defense.
Potential Concerns
  • Lemos absorbs more significant strikes than she lands per minute.
  • Thainara has not faced this level of proven UFC power.
  • Lemos's age and pace management become larger variables in a high-tempo fight.
AI Analysis

Lemos's power faces Thainara's youth, length and submission-heavy pressure.

Forecast

Thainara is a slight model favorite because her youth, length and grappling give her more ways to win minute by minute. Lemos carries the clearest single-shot threat and could end the fight early, but if Thainara survives the opening exchanges she is positioned to take over with clinch and submission pressure.

Skill ratings, win probability, advantages, concerns, and forecast are AI-generated predictions based on scraped fighter profiles — not official UFC stats or guarantees.

Matchup Breakdown

Lemos remains one of the division's most dangerous punchers, but Thainara presents the younger, longer and more complete grappling threat. Lemos can dictate the result if she creates clean pocket exchanges; Thainara's path is to deny prolonged striking exchanges, mix takedowns and force defensive grappling. The age and pace gap slightly favor the challenger.

Picks Terminal Weekly

A tactical UFC briefing — Monday previews, Friday updates.

Every Monday: the full card preview, key matchups, and the model's forecast. Every Friday: fresh updates as fight night approaches. Free, no fluff, one-click unsubscribe.