← UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs SalkilldSteven AsplundGuilherme Pat

Steven Asplund vs Guilherme Pat — Heavyweight — is scheduled for Saturday, August 8, 2026 at UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs Salkilld in Meta APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada, United States. Picks Terminal covers the matchup with a win-probability estimate, a matchup breakdown and fight intel drawn from public sources.

Prelims · HeavyweightID · B12A2181-EE81-4F78-9DA0-9570DBA0C43F

Unranked · Heavyweight

Steven Asplund

7-2-0 · Striker

Unranked · Heavyweight

Guilherme Pat

6-1-0 · Striker

Win Probability Model · v4.2

Asplund

54%

Edge8%

Pat

46%

Skill Comparison

86
80
Striking
63
62
Wrestling
78
80
Cardio
90
88
Takedown Defense
80
82
Chin Durability

Physical Attributes

AsplundMetricPat
6' 5"Height6' 4"
81"Reach78"
28Age29
OrthodoxStanceOrthodox
100%Finish Rate83%

Career Records

AsplundMetricPat
6Wins by KO/TKO5
1Wins by Submission0
5First-Round Finishes4
6.25Sig. Strikes / Min5.10
2.50Sig. Strikes Absorbed / Min2.70
63%Striking Accuracy58%
60%Striking Defense57%
0Takedowns / 15 min0
0%Takedown Accuracy0%
100%Takedown Defense100%
0Submissions / 15 min0

Strike Distribution

Asplund

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 95%Standing95%
Clinch — 2%Clinch2%
Ground — 3%Ground3%

Primary Position Standing

Pat

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 86%Standing86%
Clinch — 14%Clinch14%
Ground — 0%Ground0%

Primary Position Standing

Fight Intel

Public Consensus

— Consensus data unavailable —

Latest News

— No recent news —

Asplund

Strengths

  • Length
  • Power
  • High finish rate

Weaknesses

  • Small UFC sample
  • Limited wrestling evidence

Opportunities

  • Control long range
  • Land first

Threats

  • Pat's power
  • Heavyweight volatility
Pat

Strengths

  • Knockout power
  • Composure
  • Finishing record

Weaknesses

  • Reach deficit
  • Limited UFC sample

Opportunities

  • Counter long entries
  • Attack the body

Threats

  • Asplund's jab
  • Long straight punches

In-Depth Analysis

Model favors Asplund
Key Advantages
  • Asplund: three-inch reach edge and higher recorded striking output.
  • Asplund: all seven wins by finish.
  • Pat: five knockout wins and a slightly broader professional sample.
Potential Concerns
  • Both fighters have limited UFC data and heavyweight variance is high.
  • Asplund has not shown meaningful offensive wrestling in the available sample.
  • Pat gives up reach against a dangerous straight puncher.
AI Analysis

Two large heavyweight finishers meet in a volatile, mostly standing matchup.

Forecast

Asplund is the narrow favorite because his length and current output provide a small technical edge. Pat's power makes the fight highly volatile, and either fighter can end it early, but Asplund is slightly better positioned to control the first exchange.

Skill ratings, win probability, advantages, concerns, and forecast are AI-generated predictions based on scraped fighter profiles — not official UFC stats or guarantees.

Matchup Breakdown

Both heavyweights are strong finishers with limited recorded grappling offense. Asplund is taller, longer and currently produces more volume, while Pat has a slightly deeper decision sample and solid early finishing numbers. The matchup is likely to be decided by distance control, composure and who lands first without overcommitting.

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