← UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs SalkilldManoel SousaRichie Miranda

Manoel Sousa vs Richie Miranda — Lightweight — is scheduled for Saturday, August 8, 2026 at UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs Salkilld in Meta APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada, United States. Picks Terminal covers the matchup with a win-probability estimate, a matchup breakdown and fight intel drawn from public sources.

Prelims · LightweightID · 8A62B254-583C-4BF6-A77E-0ADCF92EA038

Unranked · Lightweight

Manoel Sousa

14-1-0 · Striker

Unranked · Lightweight

Richie Miranda

13-1-0 · Mixed Martial Arts

Win Probability Model · v4.2

Sousa

56%

Edge12%

Miranda

44%

Skill Comparison

85
79
Striking
75
78
Wrestling
82
86
Cardio
74
79
Takedown Defense
82
83
Chin Durability

Physical Attributes

SousaMetricMiranda
5' 11"Height5' 10"
73"Reach72"
28Age30
OrthodoxStanceOrthodox
86%Finish Rate69%

Career Records

SousaMetricMiranda
11Wins by KO/TKO6
1Wins by Submission3
8First-Round Finishes5
7.59Sig. Strikes / Min—
4.84Sig. Strikes Absorbed / Min—
55%Striking Accuracy—
56%Striking Defense—
0.61Takedowns / 15 min—
50%Takedown Accuracy—
75%Takedown Defense—
0Submissions / 15 min—

Strike Distribution

Sousa

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 77%Standing77%
Clinch — 11%Clinch11%
Ground — 12%Ground12%

Primary Position Standing

Fight Intel

Public Consensus

— Consensus data unavailable —

Latest News

— No recent news —

Sousa

Strengths

  • Output
  • Knockout power
  • UFC sample

Weaknesses

  • Damage absorption
  • Can overextend

Opportunities

  • Start fast
  • Punish debut nerves

Threats

  • Miranda's durability
  • Late-round slowdown
Miranda

Strengths

  • Durability
  • Experience
  • Balanced record

Weaknesses

  • No UFC data
  • Late-notice debut

Opportunities

  • Extend the fight
  • Counter aggression

Threats

  • Sousa's early volume
  • Knockout combinations

In-Depth Analysis

Model favors Sousa
Key Advantages
  • Sousa: 7.59 SLpM and eleven knockout victories.
  • Sousa: verified UFC-level output and accuracy.
  • Miranda: strong 13-1 record and broader late-fight decision experience.
Potential Concerns
  • Sousa absorbs 4.84 significant strikes per minute.
  • Miranda has no completed UFC statistical sample.
  • A late booking creates preparation uncertainty for both fighters.
AI Analysis

Sousa's explosive UFC-tested offense meets Miranda's deep, durable regional résumé.

Forecast

Sousa is a slight favorite because his verified pace and finishing power can create an early scoring lead or stoppage. Miranda's durability and experience make him dangerous if the fight extends, keeping the projection close rather than decisive.

Skill ratings, win probability, advantages, concerns, and forecast are AI-generated predictions based on scraped fighter profiles — not official UFC stats or guarantees.

Matchup Breakdown

Sousa brings extreme early output, eleven knockout wins and a completed UFC statistical sample. Miranda enters 13-1 with a more decision-capable profile but no completed UFC statistics. Sousa's path is to dictate the opening pace and create damage before Miranda settles; Miranda's route is composure, defensive wrestling and extending the fight beyond Sousa's most explosive phase.

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