UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs Rodrigues

Análisis del modelo

Hernandez has the more repeatable control route through elite takedown volume, while Rodrigues carries the larger one-shot striking threat.

Las valoraciones de habilidades, la probabilidad de victoria, las ventajas, los riesgos y el pronóstico son estimaciones generadas por el modelo a partir de perfiles públicos de peleadores — no son estadísticas oficiales de UFC ni garantías de resultado.

Desglose del enfrentamiento

The fight is shaped by whether Hernandez can force repeat grappling cycles without paying heavily on entry. His 5.88 takedowns per 15 and 1.6 submission attempts create a higher-volume control game than Rodrigues typically produces, and Hernandez owns the cleaner defensive striking baseline. Rodrigues counters with 5.53 SLpM, 12 career knockouts and 75% takedown defense, so early failed shots would quickly shift the matchup toward him. If Hernandez gets Rodrigues defending along the fence, accumulation of mat returns and top pressure should become more important as the fight extends. The model gives Hernandez a modest advantage because Rodrigues has a credible finish route at every entry.