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UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs Rodrigues

Saturday, August 22, 2026 · Golden 1 Center · Sacramento, CA

Main Card08:00 PM EDT

Fights12

UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs Rodrigues takes place on Saturday, August 22, 2026 at Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, CA. Picks Terminal covers 12 bouts on the card with win probabilities, matchup breakdowns and fight intel. Main event: Anthony Hernandez vs Gregory Rodrigues.

Main Event · MiddleweightID · C9C74093-3E6E-441A-9579-4F61AA916B16

Rank #6 · Middleweight

Anthony Hernandez

"Fluffy"

15-3-0 · Striker

Rank #11 · Middleweight

Gregory Rodrigues

"Robocop"

19-6-0 · Grappler

Win Probability Model · v4.2

Hernandez

58%

Edge16%

Rodrigues

42%

Skill Comparison

Striking

Wrestling

Cardio

Takedown Defense

Chin Durability

Physical Attributes

HernandezMetricRodrigues

6' 0"Height6' 3"

75"Reach75"

32Age34

OrthodoxStanceOrthodox

80%Finish Rate79%

Career Records

HernandezMetricRodrigues

3Wins by KO/TKO12

9Wins by Submission3

5First-Round Finishes9

4.57Sig. Strikes / Min5.53

3.10Sig. Strikes Absorbed / Min4.78

60%Striking Accuracy51%

51%Striking Defense50%

0.11Knockdown Avg / 15 min1.01

5.88Takedowns / 15 min1.90

48%Takedown Accuracy34%

68%Takedown Defense75%

1.60Submissions / 15 min0.40

10:36Avg. Fight Time08:28

Strike Distribution

Hernandez

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

81%

Body

12%

Leg

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing49%

Clinch12%

Ground39%

Primary Position Standing

Rodrigues

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

74%

Body

21%

Leg

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing84%

Clinch10%

Ground6%

Primary Position Standing

Fight Intel

Public Consensus

Hernandez61%

Rodrigues39%

Public sentiment favors Hernandez

Aggregated public sentiment, shown as analytics context only. Not odds and not betting advice. 18+.

In-Depth Analysis

Model favors Hernandez

Key Advantages

Hernandez lands 5.88 takedowns per 15 minutes at 48% accuracy.
Hernandez absorbs 3.10 significant strikes per minute versus Rodrigues' 4.78.
Rodrigues lands 5.53 significant strikes per minute and averages 1.01 knockdowns per 15.

Potential Concerns

Rodrigues' 75% takedown defense directly tests Hernandez's primary path.
Hernandez was stopped by Sean Strickland in February 2026.
Long pocket exchanges favor Rodrigues' 12-career-KO power profile.

AI Analysis

Hernandez has the more repeatable control route through elite takedown volume, while Rodrigues carries the larger one-shot striking threat.

Forecast

Expect Hernandez to pressure behind level changes and force extended clinch/wrestling exchanges. Rodrigues should be most dangerous in the first half when his counters and uppercuts can punish those entries. If Hernandez establishes repeated takedowns, the pace should increasingly favor him over five rounds. Hernandez by decision or late submission is the most coherent route, with Rodrigues' knockout threat keeping confidence moderate.

Skill ratings, win probability, advantages, concerns, and forecast are AI-generated predictions based on scraped fighter profiles — not official UFC stats or guarantees.

Matchup Breakdown

The fight is shaped by whether Hernandez can force repeat grappling cycles without paying heavily on entry. His 5.88 takedowns per 15 and 1.6 submission attempts create a higher-volume control game than Rodrigues typically produces, and Hernandez owns the cleaner defensive striking baseline. Rodrigues counters with 5.53 SLpM, 12 career knockouts and 75% takedown defense, so early failed shots would quickly shift the matchup toward him. If Hernandez gets Rodrigues defending along the fence, accumulation of mat returns and top pressure should become more important as the fight extends. The model gives Hernandez a modest advantage because Rodrigues has a credible finish route at every entry.

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