← UFC 329: McGregor vs Holloway 2Alessandro CostaCody Durden

Alessandro Costa vs Cody Durden — Flyweight — estaba programada para el sábado, 11 de julio de 2026 en UFC 329: McGregor vs Holloway 2 en T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas. Resultado oficial aún no registrado. Picks Terminal cubre el enfrentamiento con una estimación de probabilidad de victoria, un desglose del enfrentamiento e inteligencia extraída de fuentes públicas.

slot.Prelim · FlyweightID · 9C48B1FA-C349-4C49-B7A6-1A5388994DC0

Rango Unranked · Flyweight

Alessandro Costa

"Nono"

16-5-0 · Striker / BJJ

Rango Unranked · Flyweight

Cody Durden

"Custom Made"

18-10-1 · Wrestler

Modelo de probabilidad de victoria · v4.2

Costa

57%

Ventaja14%

Durden

43%

Comparación de habilidades

74
68
Golpeo
62
86
Lucha
75
78
Cardio
88
65
Defensa de derribos
68
72
Resistencia de mentón

Atributos físicos

CostaMétricaDurden
5'4"Estatura5'7"
67"Alcance67"
30Edad35
OrtodoxaPosturaZurda
50%Tasa de finalización67%

Récord de carrera

CostaMétricaDurden
8Victorias por KO/TKO4
0Victorias por sumisión6
3.86Golpes significativos / min3.24
3.70Golpes significativos recibidos / min3.94
46%Precisión de golpeo44%
56%Defensa de golpeo50%
0.77Derribos / 15 min3.99
26%Precisión de derribo49%
86%Defensa de derribo56%
0.40Sumisiones / 15 min0.70

Inteligencia de la pelea

Consenso público

— Datos de consenso no disponibles —

Últimas noticias

— Sin noticias recientes —

Análisis detallado

Traduciendo…
Ventajas clave
  • Elite 86% takedown defense specifically tuned for heavy wrestlers
  • Higher offensive striking precision (46% vs Durden's 44%)
  • Superior defensive striking (56% deflection rate)
Posibles riesgos
  • Low offensive wrestling volume (0.77 TD avg) could leave him on the back foot
  • Vulnerability to power, evidenced by 4 KO/TKO losses
  • Significant height disadvantage (7cm deficit)
Análisis del modelo

Costa's elite 86% takedown defense meets Durden's relentless 3.99 TD/15m volume in a classic clash of styles.

Pronóstico

Expect a high-paced opening round where Durden attempts several early double-legs against the fence. If Costa continues to demonstrate the 86% takedown defense seen throughout his UFC tenure, the fight will transition into a kickboxing match where Costa has the technical edge. Durden's volume is his best weapon, but his 50% striking defense often leaves him open to the counters that Costa used to finish Matt Schnell. I forecast Costa defending the majority of the grappling entries and winning a competitive unanimous decision or finding a late TKO as Durden tires from failed attempts. Confidence is moderate due to Durden's grit and veteran experience.

Las valoraciones de habilidades, la probabilidad de victoria, las ventajas, los riesgos y el pronóstico son estimaciones generadas por el modelo a partir de perfiles públicos de peleadores — no son estadísticas oficiales de UFC ni garantías de resultado.

Desglose del enfrentamiento

This is a quintessential 'Strikers vs. Grappler' matchup. Durden brings a heavy wrestling-based approach, evidenced by his 3.99 takedowns per 15 minutes and nearly 50% accuracy. However, Costa possesses a statistically elite 86% takedown defense rate, which has historically allowed him to keep fights upright where he excels. While Durden is the more active wrestler, he absorbs more damage (3.94 SApM) than he lands (3.24 SLpM), whereas Costa maintains a positive striking ratio (3.86 landed vs 3.70 absorbed).

Picks Terminal Semanal

Un informe táctico de UFC — previa los lunes, actualizaciones los viernes.

Cada lunes: la cartelera completa, las peleas clave y la probabilidad estimada por el modelo. Cada viernes: novedades a medida que se acerca la noche de pelea. Gratis, sin relleno, cancelas con un clic.