← UFC 329: McGregor vs Holloway 2Alessandro CostaCody Durden

Alessandro Costa vs Cody DurdenUFC 329: McGregor vs Holloway 2

Alessandro Costa vs Cody Durden — Flyweight — was scheduled for Saturday, July 11, 2026 at UFC 329: McGregor vs Holloway 2 in T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas. Official result not yet recorded. Picks Terminal covers the matchup with a win-probability estimate, a matchup breakdown and fight intel drawn from public sources.

slot.Prelim · FlyweightID · 9C48B1FA-C349-4C49-B7A6-1A5388994DC0

Rank Unranked · Flyweight

Alessandro Costa

"Nono"

16-5-0 · Striker / BJJ

Unranked · Flyweight

Cody Durden

18-11-1 · Striker

Win Probability Model · v4.2

Costa

57%

Edge14%

Durden

43%

Skill Comparison

Striking

Wrestling

Cardio

Takedown Defense

Chin Durability

Physical Attributes

CostaMetricDurden

5'4"Height5' 7"

67"Reach67"

30Age35

OrthodoxStance—

50%Finish Rate67%

Career Records

CostaMetricDurden

8Wins by KO/TKO6

0Wins by Submission6

—First-Round Finishes9

3.86Sig. Strikes / Min3.27

3.70Sig. Strikes Absorbed / Min3.89

46%Striking Accuracy44%

56%Striking Defense51%

—Knockdown Avg / 15 min0.09

0.77Takedowns / 15 min3.82

26%Takedown Accuracy10%

86%Takedown Defense57%

0.40Submissions / 15 min0.62

—Avg. Fight Time09:56

Strike Distribution

Durden

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

73%

Body

13%

Leg

14%

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing86%

Clinch4%

Ground11%

Primary Position Standing

Fight Intel

Public Consensus

— Consensus data unavailable —

In-Depth Analysis

Model favors Costa

Key Advantages

Elite 86% takedown defense specifically tuned for heavy wrestlers
Higher offensive striking precision (46% vs Durden's 44%)
Superior defensive striking (56% deflection rate)

Potential Concerns

Low offensive wrestling volume (0.77 TD avg) could leave him on the back foot
Vulnerability to power, evidenced by 4 KO/TKO losses
Significant height disadvantage (7cm deficit)

AI Analysis

Costa's elite 86% takedown defense meets Durden's relentless 3.99 TD/15m volume in a classic clash of styles.

Forecast

Expect a high-paced opening round where Durden attempts several early double-legs against the fence. If Costa continues to demonstrate the 86% takedown defense seen throughout his UFC tenure, the fight will transition into a kickboxing match where Costa has the technical edge. Durden's volume is his best weapon, but his 50% striking defense often leaves him open to the counters that Costa used to finish Matt Schnell. I forecast Costa defending the majority of the grappling entries and winning a competitive unanimous decision or finding a late TKO as Durden tires from failed attempts. Confidence is moderate due to Durden's grit and veteran experience.

Skill ratings, win probability, advantages, concerns, and forecast are AI-generated predictions based on scraped fighter profiles — not official UFC stats or guarantees.

Matchup Breakdown

This is a quintessential 'Strikers vs. Grappler' matchup. Durden brings a heavy wrestling-based approach, evidenced by his 3.99 takedowns per 15 minutes and nearly 50% accuracy. However, Costa possesses a statistically elite 86% takedown defense rate, which has historically allowed him to keep fights upright where he excels. While Durden is the more active wrestler, he absorbs more damage (3.94 SApM) than he lands (3.24 SLpM), whereas Costa maintains a positive striking ratio (3.86 landed vs 3.70 absorbed).

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