Benoît Saint Denis vs Paddy Pimblett — Lightweight — estaba programada para el sábado, 11 de julio de 2026 en UFC 329: McGregor vs Holloway 2 en T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas. Resultado oficial aún no registrado. Picks Terminal cubre el enfrentamiento con una estimación de probabilidad de victoria, un desglose del enfrentamiento e inteligencia extraída de fuentes públicas.

slot.Co-Main · LightweightID · C3D10B01-0E74-4CE0-A3DD-78B81A0C8AFF

Rango #5 · Lightweight

Benoît Saint Denis

"God of War"

17-3-0 (1 NC) · Mixed Martial Artist

Rango #6 · Lightweight

Paddy Pimblett

"The Baddy"

23-4-0 · Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu

Modelo de probabilidad de victoria · v4.2

Denis

57%

Ventaja14%

Pimblett

43%

Comparación de habilidades

86
84
Golpeo
88
65
Lucha
82
85
Cardio
79
55
Defensa de derribos
74
84
Resistencia de mentón

Atributos físicos

DenisMétricaPimblett
5'11"Estatura5'10"
73"Alcance73"
30Edad31
ZurdaPosturaOrtodoxa
88%Tasa de finalización74%

Récord de carrera

DenisMétricaPimblett
9Victorias por KO/TKO6
5Victorias por sumisión11
5.62Golpes significativos / min5.49
4.09Golpes significativos recibidos / min3.89
58%Precisión de golpeo52%
42%Defensa de golpeo42%
4.19Derribos / 15 min0.69
35%Precisión de derribo21%
72%Defensa de derribo44%
1.80Sumisiones / 15 min1.20

Inteligencia de la pelea

Consenso público

Datos de consenso no disponibles

Últimas noticias

Sin noticias recientes

Análisis detallado

Traduciendo…
Ventajas clave
  • Statistical dominance in wrestling with 4.19 takedowns per 15 mins vs. Pimblett’s 0.69
  • Superior striking volume landing 5.62 sig strikes per minute
  • Tactical southpaw advantage and 79% takedown defense rating
Posibles riesgos
  • Prone to defensive lapses (absorbed 4.09 strikes per min) against Pimblett's 0.34 KD avg
  • Lower career chin durability rating following multiple KO/TKO losses
  • Pimblett’s momentum following wins over Justin Gaethje and Michael Chandler
Análisis del modelo

High-volume French Special Forces grit vs. Scouse momentum and opportunistic grappling.

Pronóstico

The fight is expected to start at a furious pace, with Saint Denis utilizing his southpaw stance to land heavy kicks and initiate clinch entries. While Saint Denis will likely find success early with his chain wrestling, Pimblett’s 1.2 submission average per 15 minutes makes every transition dangerous. Expect Saint Denis to win the volume battle using his 5.62 SLpM, but the durability of Pimblett could see the tide turn in the middle rounds. Ultimately, Saint Denis' superior wrestling control and 58% strike accuracy should allow him to dictate the location of the fight. I forecast a grueling, high-paced encounter where Saint Denis survives several submission scares to win via unanimous decision or late TKO.

Las valoraciones de habilidades, la probabilidad de victoria, las ventajas, los riesgos y el pronóstico son estimaciones generadas por el modelo a partir de perfiles públicos de peleadores — no son estadísticas oficiales de UFC ni garantías de resultado.

Desglose del enfrentamiento

This matchup pits Saint Denis’ relentless wrestling-heavy pressure against Pimblett’s improved striking and opportunistic submission game. Saint Denis averages a massive 4.19 takedowns per 15 minutes, which directly attacks Pimblett’s primary statistical weakness: a low 44% takedown defense. However, Pimblett's recent track record of finishing high-level veterans like Gaethje and Chandler proves his 'chin on a swivel' style has evolved into legitimate lightweight power. Saint Denis will need to navigate the striking exchanges carefully, as his 42% striking defense matches Pimblett's, making this a high-variance brawl if it stays standing.

Picks Terminal Semanal

Un informe táctico de UFC — previa los lunes, actualizaciones los viernes.

Cada lunes: la cartelera completa, las peleas clave y la probabilidad estimada por el modelo. Cada viernes: novedades a medida que se acerca la noche de pelea. Gratis, sin relleno, cancelas con un clic.