Benoît Saint Denis vs Paddy Pimblett — UFC 329: McGregor vs Holloway 2

← UFC 329: McGregor vs Holloway 2Benoît Saint DenisPaddy Pimblett

Benoît Saint Denis vs Paddy Pimblett — Lightweight — was scheduled for Saturday, July 11, 2026 at UFC 329: McGregor vs Holloway 2 in T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas. Official result not yet recorded. Picks Terminal covers the matchup with a win-probability estimate, a matchup breakdown and fight intel drawn from public sources.

slot.Co-Main · LightweightID · C3D10B01-0E74-4CE0-A3DD-78B81A0C8AFF

Rank #5 · Lightweight

Benoît Saint Denis

"God of War"

17-3-0 (1 NC) · Mixed Martial Artist

Rank #6 · Lightweight

Paddy Pimblett

"The Baddy"

23-4-0 · Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu

Win Probability Model · v4.2

Denis

57%

Edge14%

Pimblett

43%

Skill Comparison

Striking

Wrestling

Cardio

Takedown Defense

Chin Durability

Physical Attributes

DenisMetricPimblett

5'11"Height5'10"

73"Reach73"

30Age31

SouthpawStanceOrthodox

88%Finish Rate74%

Career Records

DenisMetricPimblett

9Wins by KO/TKO6

5Wins by Submission11

5.62Sig. Strikes / Min5.49

4.09Sig. Strikes Absorbed / Min3.89

58%Striking Accuracy52%

42%Striking Defense42%

4.19Takedowns / 15 min0.69

35%Takedown Accuracy21%

72%Takedown Defense44%

1.80Submissions / 15 min1.20

Fight Intel

Public Consensus

— Consensus data unavailable —

In-Depth Analysis

Model favors Denis

Key Advantages

Statistical dominance in wrestling with 4.19 takedowns per 15 mins vs. Pimblett’s 0.69
Superior striking volume landing 5.62 sig strikes per minute
Tactical southpaw advantage and 79% takedown defense rating

Potential Concerns

Prone to defensive lapses (absorbed 4.09 strikes per min) against Pimblett's 0.34 KD avg
Lower career chin durability rating following multiple KO/TKO losses
Pimblett’s momentum following wins over Justin Gaethje and Michael Chandler

AI Analysis

High-volume French Special Forces grit vs. Scouse momentum and opportunistic grappling.

Forecast

The fight is expected to start at a furious pace, with Saint Denis utilizing his southpaw stance to land heavy kicks and initiate clinch entries. While Saint Denis will likely find success early with his chain wrestling, Pimblett’s 1.2 submission average per 15 minutes makes every transition dangerous. Expect Saint Denis to win the volume battle using his 5.62 SLpM, but the durability of Pimblett could see the tide turn in the middle rounds. Ultimately, Saint Denis' superior wrestling control and 58% strike accuracy should allow him to dictate the location of the fight. I forecast a grueling, high-paced encounter where Saint Denis survives several submission scares to win via unanimous decision or late TKO.

Skill ratings, win probability, advantages, concerns, and forecast are AI-generated predictions based on scraped fighter profiles — not official UFC stats or guarantees.

Matchup Breakdown

This matchup pits Saint Denis’ relentless wrestling-heavy pressure against Pimblett’s improved striking and opportunistic submission game. Saint Denis averages a massive 4.19 takedowns per 15 minutes, which directly attacks Pimblett’s primary statistical weakness: a low 44% takedown defense. However, Pimblett's recent track record of finishing high-level veterans like Gaethje and Chandler proves his 'chin on a swivel' style has evolved into legitimate lightweight power. Saint Denis will need to navigate the striking exchanges carefully, as his 42% striking defense matches Pimblett's, making this a high-variance brawl if it stays standing.

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