← UFC 329: McGregor vs Holloway 2Brandon RoyvalLone’er Kavanagh

Brandon Royval vs Lone’er Kavanagh — Flyweight — estaba programada para el sábado, 11 de julio de 2026 en UFC 329: McGregor vs Holloway 2 en T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas. Resultado oficial aún no registrado. Picks Terminal cubre el enfrentamiento con una estimación de probabilidad de victoria, un desglose del enfrentamiento e inteligencia extraída de fuentes públicas.

Cartelera principal · FlyweightID · D3BB41BE-41FA-4807-944D-DB1394954765

Rango #4 Flyweight · Flyweight

Brandon Royval

"Raw Dawg"

17-9-0 · Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu / Striker

Rango #6 Flyweight · Flyweight

Lone’er Kavanagh

10-1-0 · Kickboxer

Modelo de probabilidad de victoria · v4.2

Royval

54%

Ventaja8%

Kavanagh

46%

Comparación de habilidades

85
82
Golpeo
65
68
Lucha
90
88
Cardio
45
94
Defensa de derribos
78
70
Resistencia de mentón

Atributos físicos

RoyvalMétricaKavanagh
5'9"Estatura5'6"
70"Alcance67"
33Edad27
ZurdaPosturaOrtodoxa
53%Tasa de finalización50%

Récord de carrera

RoyvalMétricaKavanagh
3Victorias por KO/TKO2
6Victorias por sumisión1
5.54Golpes significativos / min4.13
4.25Golpes significativos recibidos / min3.49
41%Precisión de golpeo48%
43%Defensa de golpeo56%
0.65Derribos / 15 min1.12
75%Precisión de derribo45%
45%Defensa de derribo94%
1.10Sumisiones / 15 min0.20

Inteligencia de la pelea

Consenso público

— Datos de consenso no disponibles —

Últimas noticias

— Sin noticias recientes —

Análisis detallado

Traduciendo…
Ventajas clave
  • 5.54 SLpM volume vs. Kavanagh's 4.13 provides a significant activity edge
  • 3-inch height and 3-inch reach advantage to facilitate outside striking
  • Elite submission threat (9 career subs) against an opponent with limited grappling history
Posibles riesgos
  • Low 45% takedown defense could be exploited by Kavanagh's 1.12 TD avg
  • High 4.25 SApM indicates defensive liabilities in pocket exchanges
  • Kavanagh is coming off a massive career-best win over Brandon Moreno
Análisis del modelo

Veteran chaos vs. technical rising momentum in a high-stakes flyweight contender clash.

Pronóstico

Expect a blistering pace from the opening bell, with Royval utilizing his long reach and southpaw stance to pepper Kavanagh with kicks. Kavanagh will likely look to replicate his success against Moreno, using lateral movement to avoid Royval's frantic blitzes and counter with heavy hands. While Kavanagh has shown elite takedown defense, Royval's grappling is often offensive rather than reactive, utilizing scrambles to find the back. The most likely scenario is a back-and-forth war that tests both men's durability. Royval’s championship-level experience and superior volume should give him a slight edge on the scorecards in a narrow unanimous decision, though a Kavanagh KO in the second round is a live secondary possibility. Confidence is moderate due to Kavanagh's rapid ceiling growth.

Las valoraciones de habilidades, la probabilidad de victoria, las ventajas, los riesgos y el pronóstico son estimaciones generadas por el modelo a partir de perfiles públicos de peleadores — no son estadísticas oficiales de UFC ni garantías de resultado.

Desglose del enfrentamiento

This fight pits the frantic, high-output style of Brandon Royval against the disciplined, counter-striking of Lone’er Kavanagh. Royval is a statistical outlier in the division, maintaining an elite 5.54 SLpM while constantly hunting for submissions (1.1 sub avg). However, his 43% striking defense and 45% TD defense make him vulnerable to clinical strikers. Kavanagh enters with immense momentum following his upset win over Brandon Moreno, showcasing a nearly impenetrable 94% takedown defense and superior striking accuracy (48% vs Royval's 41%). The matchup hinges on whether Royval can force a chaotic pace that breaks Kavanagh's structure or if Kavanagh can time Royval’s entries for a counter-hook as Charles Johnson did.

Picks Terminal Semanal

Un informe táctico de UFC — previa los lunes, actualizaciones los viernes.

Cada lunes: la cartelera completa, las peleas clave y la probabilidad estimada por el modelo. Cada viernes: novedades a medida que se acerca la noche de pelea. Gratis, sin relleno, cancelas con un clic.