Brandon Royval vs Lone’er Kavanagh — UFC 329: McGregor vs Holloway 2

← UFC 329: McGregor vs Holloway 2Brandon RoyvalLone’er Kavanagh

Brandon Royval vs Lone’er Kavanagh — Flyweight — was scheduled for Saturday, July 11, 2026 at UFC 329: McGregor vs Holloway 2 in T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas. Official result not yet recorded. Picks Terminal covers the matchup with a win-probability estimate, a matchup breakdown and fight intel drawn from public sources.

Main Card · FlyweightID · D3BB41BE-41FA-4807-944D-DB1394954765

Rank #4 Flyweight · Flyweight

Brandon Royval

"Raw Dawg"

17-9-0 · Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu / Striker

Rank #6 Flyweight · Flyweight

Lone’er Kavanagh

10-1-0 · Kickboxer

Win Probability Model · v4.2

Royval

54%

Edge8%

Kavanagh

46%

Skill Comparison

Striking

Wrestling

Cardio

Takedown Defense

Chin Durability

Physical Attributes

RoyvalMetricKavanagh

5'9"Height5'6"

70"Reach67"

33Age27

SouthpawStanceOrthodox

53%Finish Rate50%

Career Records

RoyvalMetricKavanagh

3Wins by KO/TKO2

6Wins by Submission1

5.54Sig. Strikes / Min4.13

4.25Sig. Strikes Absorbed / Min3.49

41%Striking Accuracy48%

43%Striking Defense56%

0.65Takedowns / 15 min1.12

75%Takedown Accuracy45%

45%Takedown Defense94%

1.10Submissions / 15 min0.20

Fight Intel

Public Consensus

— Consensus data unavailable —

In-Depth Analysis

Model favors Royval

Key Advantages

5.54 SLpM volume vs. Kavanagh's 4.13 provides a significant activity edge
3-inch height and 3-inch reach advantage to facilitate outside striking
Elite submission threat (9 career subs) against an opponent with limited grappling history

Potential Concerns

Low 45% takedown defense could be exploited by Kavanagh's 1.12 TD avg
High 4.25 SApM indicates defensive liabilities in pocket exchanges
Kavanagh is coming off a massive career-best win over Brandon Moreno

AI Analysis

Veteran chaos vs. technical rising momentum in a high-stakes flyweight contender clash.

Forecast

Expect a blistering pace from the opening bell, with Royval utilizing his long reach and southpaw stance to pepper Kavanagh with kicks. Kavanagh will likely look to replicate his success against Moreno, using lateral movement to avoid Royval's frantic blitzes and counter with heavy hands. While Kavanagh has shown elite takedown defense, Royval's grappling is often offensive rather than reactive, utilizing scrambles to find the back. The most likely scenario is a back-and-forth war that tests both men's durability. Royval’s championship-level experience and superior volume should give him a slight edge on the scorecards in a narrow unanimous decision, though a Kavanagh KO in the second round is a live secondary possibility. Confidence is moderate due to Kavanagh's rapid ceiling growth.

Skill ratings, win probability, advantages, concerns, and forecast are AI-generated predictions based on scraped fighter profiles — not official UFC stats or guarantees.

Matchup Breakdown

This fight pits the frantic, high-output style of Brandon Royval against the disciplined, counter-striking of Lone’er Kavanagh. Royval is a statistical outlier in the division, maintaining an elite 5.54 SLpM while constantly hunting for submissions (1.1 sub avg). However, his 43% striking defense and 45% TD defense make him vulnerable to clinical strikers. Kavanagh enters with immense momentum following his upset win over Brandon Moreno, showcasing a nearly impenetrable 94% takedown defense and superior striking accuracy (48% vs Royval's 41%). The matchup hinges on whether Royval can force a chaotic pace that breaks Kavanagh's structure or if Kavanagh can time Royval’s entries for a counter-hook as Charles Johnson did.

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