← UFC 329: McGregor vs Holloway 2Conor McGregorMax Holloway

Conor McGregor vs Max Holloway — Welterweight — estaba programada para el sábado, 11 de julio de 2026 en UFC 329: McGregor vs Holloway 2 en T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas. Resultado oficial aún no registrado. Picks Terminal cubre el enfrentamiento con una estimación de probabilidad de victoria, un desglose del enfrentamiento e inteligencia extraída de fuentes públicas.

Evento estelar · WelterweightID · CC9C4EF9-5E9C-4DB3-B983-4BCD9F32A7EE

Rango N/A · Welterweight

Conor McGregor

"The Notorious"

22-6-0 · Southpaw Counter Striker

Rango #4 Lightweight · Welterweight

Max Holloway

"Blessed"

27-9-0 · High Volume Striker

Modelo de probabilidad de victoria · v4.2

McGregor

43%

Ventaja14%

Holloway

57%

Comparación de habilidades

84
90
Golpeo
65
60
Lucha
68
95
Cardio
75
85
Defensa de derribos
70
94
Resistencia de mentón

Atributos físicos

McGregorMétricaHolloway
5' 9"Estatura5'11"
74"Alcance69"
37Edad34
ZurdaPosturaOrtodoxa
91%Tasa de finalización52%

Récord de carrera

McGregorMétricaHolloway
19Victorias por KO/TKO11
1Victorias por sumisión3
5.32Golpes significativos / min6.91
4.66Golpes significativos recibidos / min4.61
49%Precisión de golpeo48%
54%Defensa de golpeo58%
0.67Derribos / 15 min0.23
55%Precisión de derribo53%
66%Defensa de derribo81%
0.10Sumisiones / 15 min0.30

Inteligencia de la pelea

Consenso público

— Datos de consenso no disponibles —

Últimas noticias

— Sin noticias recientes —

Análisis detallado

Traduciendo…
Ventajas clave
  • McGregor 5-inch reach advantage (74 vs 69) facilitates counter-striking
  • Holloway lands 6.91 SLpM, the highest recorded volume in UFC history
  • McGregor high knockdown average (1.73) vs Holloway's zero official KD history
  • Holloway's 81% takedown defense effectively forces a pure stand-up battle
Posibles riesgos
  • McGregor's 08:02 average fight time vs Holloway's 16:39 suggests a cardio liability
  • Holloway has won 13 fights by decision, proving elite 5-round sustainability
  • McGregor has suffered 6 losses (2 KO, 4 SUB) since the last matchup in 2013
Análisis del modelo

Historic rematch where McGregor's early power meets Holloway's historic durability and volume.

Pronóstico

McGregor will likely control the first 7 minutes, utilizing his reach to land heavy counters as Holloway seeks his range. Expect McGregor to test Holloway's durability early with 2-3 significant power shots that would finish most divisional peers. However, as the fight moves past the second round, Holloway's superior cardio (average fight time 16:39) and relentless 6.91 SLpM pace will begin to take over. McGregor's efficiency typically drops as the fight wears on, while Holloway's volume tends to increase. The most probable outcome is Holloway weathering an early storm to win a high-paced unanimous decision or a late TKO via accumulation.

Las valoraciones de habilidades, la probabilidad de victoria, las ventajas, los riesgos y el pronóstico son estimaciones generadas por el modelo a partir de perfiles públicos de peleadores — no son estadísticas oficiales de UFC ni garantías de resultado.

Desglose del enfrentamiento

This Welterweight clash hinges on the 'Hammer vs. Anvil' dynamic. McGregor operates with a 5.32 SLpM rate and elite 49% accuracy, relying on his 74-inch reach to find early KOs. However, Holloway’s statistical outlier is his volume; at 6.91 SLpM, he out-lands McGregor by nearly 30% per minute over a 15-minute average. While McGregor's career is defined by 19 KOs, Holloway has shown a legendary chin, absorbing 4.61 SApM without being knocked down in over 30 UFC appearances. If McGregor cannot find the chin early with his southpaw left hand, the data suggests Holloway's pace will overwhelm him in the later rounds.

Picks Terminal Semanal

Un informe táctico de UFC — previa los lunes, actualizaciones los viernes.

Cada lunes: la cartelera completa, las peleas clave y la probabilidad estimada por el modelo. Cada viernes: novedades a medida que se acerca la noche de pelea. Gratis, sin relleno, cancelas con un clic.