Conor McGregor vs Max Holloway — UFC 329: McGregor vs Holloway 2

← UFC 329: McGregor vs Holloway 2Conor McGregorMax Holloway

Conor McGregor vs Max Holloway — Welterweight — was scheduled for Saturday, July 11, 2026 at UFC 329: McGregor vs Holloway 2 in T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas. Official result not yet recorded. Picks Terminal covers the matchup with a win-probability estimate, a matchup breakdown and fight intel drawn from public sources.

Main Event · WelterweightID · CC9C4EF9-5E9C-4DB3-B983-4BCD9F32A7EE

Rank N/A · Welterweight

Conor McGregor

"The Notorious"

22-6-0 · Southpaw Counter Striker

Rank #4 Lightweight · Welterweight

Max Holloway

"Blessed"

27-9-0 · High Volume Striker

Win Probability Model · v4.2

McGregor

43%

Edge14%

Holloway

57%

Skill Comparison

Striking

Wrestling

Cardio

Takedown Defense

Chin Durability

Physical Attributes

McGregorMetricHolloway

5' 9"Height5'11"

74"Reach69"

37Age34

SouthpawStanceOrthodox

91%Finish Rate52%

Career Records

McGregorMetricHolloway

19Wins by KO/TKO11

1Wins by Submission3

5.32Sig. Strikes / Min6.91

4.66Sig. Strikes Absorbed / Min4.61

49%Striking Accuracy48%

54%Striking Defense58%

0.67Takedowns / 15 min0.23

55%Takedown Accuracy53%

66%Takedown Defense81%

0.10Submissions / 15 min0.30

Fight Intel

Public Consensus

— Consensus data unavailable —

In-Depth Analysis

Model favors Holloway

Key Advantages

McGregor 5-inch reach advantage (74 vs 69) facilitates counter-striking
Holloway lands 6.91 SLpM, the highest recorded volume in UFC history
McGregor high knockdown average (1.73) vs Holloway's zero official KD history
Holloway's 81% takedown defense effectively forces a pure stand-up battle

Potential Concerns

McGregor's 08:02 average fight time vs Holloway's 16:39 suggests a cardio liability
Holloway has won 13 fights by decision, proving elite 5-round sustainability
McGregor has suffered 6 losses (2 KO, 4 SUB) since the last matchup in 2013

AI Analysis

Historic rematch where McGregor's early power meets Holloway's historic durability and volume.

Forecast

McGregor will likely control the first 7 minutes, utilizing his reach to land heavy counters as Holloway seeks his range. Expect McGregor to test Holloway's durability early with 2-3 significant power shots that would finish most divisional peers. However, as the fight moves past the second round, Holloway's superior cardio (average fight time 16:39) and relentless 6.91 SLpM pace will begin to take over. McGregor's efficiency typically drops as the fight wears on, while Holloway's volume tends to increase. The most probable outcome is Holloway weathering an early storm to win a high-paced unanimous decision or a late TKO via accumulation.

Skill ratings, win probability, advantages, concerns, and forecast are AI-generated predictions based on scraped fighter profiles — not official UFC stats or guarantees.

Matchup Breakdown

This Welterweight clash hinges on the 'Hammer vs. Anvil' dynamic. McGregor operates with a 5.32 SLpM rate and elite 49% accuracy, relying on his 74-inch reach to find early KOs. However, Holloway’s statistical outlier is his volume; at 6.91 SLpM, he out-lands McGregor by nearly 30% per minute over a 15-minute average. While McGregor's career is defined by 19 KOs, Holloway has shown a legendary chin, absorbing 4.61 SApM without being knocked down in over 30 UFC appearances. If McGregor cannot find the chin early with his southpaw left hand, the data suggests Holloway's pace will overwhelm him in the later rounds.

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