← UFC 329: McGregor vs Holloway 2Cory SandhagenMario Bautista

Cory Sandhagen vs Mario Bautista — Bantamweight — estaba programada para el sábado, 11 de julio de 2026 en UFC 329: McGregor vs Holloway 2 en T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas. Resultado oficial aún no registrado. Picks Terminal cubre el enfrentamiento con una estimación de probabilidad de victoria, un desglose del enfrentamiento e inteligencia extraída de fuentes públicas.

Cartelera principal · BantamweightID · DD56E147-1180-4D3B-8AEC-6127A9E4C89D

Rango #4 Bantamweight · Bantamweight

Cory Sandhagen

"The Sandman"

18-6-0 · Dynamic Striker / Wrestler

Rango #7 Bantamweight · Bantamweight

Mario Bautista

17-3-0 · Balanced Submission Grappler

Modelo de probabilidad de victoria · v4.2

Sandhagen

57%

Ventaja14%

Bautista

43%

Comparación de habilidades

81
83
Golpeo
65
74
Lucha
88
82
Cardio
66
65
Defensa de derribos
84
80
Resistencia de mentón

Atributos físicos

SandhagenMétricaBautista
5'11"Estatura5'9"
69.5"Alcance69"
34Edad33
CambiantePosturaOrtodoxa
44%Tasa de finalización71%

Récord de carrera

SandhagenMétricaBautista
5Victorias por KO/TKO5
3Victorias por sumisión7
4.86Golpes significativos / min5.30
3.47Golpes significativos recibidos / min3.98
45%Precisión de golpeo48%
56%Defensa de golpeo54%
1.15Derribos / 15 min1.91
34%Precisión de derribo38%
56%Defensa de derribo55%
0.20Sumisiones / 15 min0.80

Inteligencia de la pelea

Consenso público

— Datos de consenso no disponibles —

Últimas noticias

— Sin noticias recientes —

Análisis detallado

Traduciendo…
Ventajas clave
  • Sandhagen's 2-inch height advantage facilitates superior range management in kickboxing exchanges
  • Bautista's 5.30 SLpM slightly outpaces Sandhagen's 4.86, suggesting high-volume pressure
  • Bautista possesses a significantly higher 71% finish rate compared to Sandhagen's 44%
  • Sandhagen has elite 5-round experience and 56% striking defense to mitigate power
Posibles riesgos
  • Sandhagen's 56% takedown defense is a vulnerability against Bautista's 1.91 TD average
  • Bautista's 3.98 SApM indicates he absorbs more damage than Sandhagen (3.47)
  • Sandhagen coming off a high-level title loss to Merab Dvalishvili in 2025
Análisis del modelo

A technically elite striking rematch where Sandhagen's championship experience meets Bautista's surging grappling threat.

Pronóstico

Expect a cerebral first round where Sandhagen uses front kicks and jabs to establish the perimeter. Bautista will likely attempt several level changes in the second round, leveraging his 1.91 TD average to neutralize Sandhagen's movement. However, Sandhagen's superior 56% striking defense should allow him to avoid the big shots that Bautista often uses to set up his 0.8 sub average. As the fight enters the championship minutes, Sandhagen's 88-rated cardio and experience will likely take over. I foresee Sandhagen pulling away on the scorecards for a unanimous decision victory in a highly technical contest.

Las valoraciones de habilidades, la probabilidad de victoria, las ventajas, los riesgos y el pronóstico son estimaciones generadas por el modelo a partir de perfiles públicos de peleadores — no son estadísticas oficiales de UFC ni garantías de resultado.

Desglose del enfrentamiento

This matchup centers on distance. Sandhagen utilizes a 69.5-inch reach and switch-stance movement to keep opponents on the end of his 4.86 SLpM. Bautista, operating at a 5.3 SLpM clip, prefers to close the distance and initiate grappling where he averages nearly 2 takedowns per 15 minutes. While Bautista's 7 career submissions make him a primary threat on the floor, Sandhagen's history against elite grapplers suggests he can survive early flurries to win the volume battle in the later rounds.

Picks Terminal Semanal

Un informe táctico de UFC — previa los lunes, actualizaciones los viernes.

Cada lunes: la cartelera completa, las peleas clave y la probabilidad estimada por el modelo. Cada viernes: novedades a medida que se acerca la noche de pelea. Gratis, sin relleno, cancelas con un clic.